It’s been said that you can’t win a fantasy baseball league in the first round, but you certainly can lose one. Case in point, in one of my Satellite NFBC leagues, a team drafted Domingo Santana with the third pick in the first round. It should be no surprise to anyone reading this that the Santana team is in 12th and last place with just 22 points. 11th place has 47, and first place has 99 points, respectively. So, you can indeed lose a league in the first round.
I’m doing my best to support that theory in my NFBC Main Event league. In that league I wanted either pick #11 or #12. My theory was simple. Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner would likely go in the first four picks, followed by Clayton Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts, and Giancarlo Stanton in the next four. Charlie Blackmon and Bryce Harper would also be in the mix, rounding out the top ten. At #11, I’d get Max Scherzer, and if I received the 12th pick and if Scherzer was taken, I’d get Chris Sale. If any of the top ten dropped, I’d have the option of one of them as well. I ended up with the 11th pick. All well-reasoned and thought out, what could go wrong?
Dale and Greg Morgan, that’s what. The Morgans Dale took Corey Kluber with the 9th pick, meaning that in addition to Scherzer and Sale, I had one of the top ten to consider. That top ten pick (ADP of 5) was Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw with a 1.78 ERA in 2014, 2.13 in 2015, 1.69 in 2016 and 2.31 in 2017 (in 175 innings) had actually fallen to me. Thanking my lucky stars, I went away from my pre-draft expectations and happily grabbed the Hall-of-Fame bound Kershaw.
OK, so it wasn’t Einsteinian. Then again, Pete Carroll called for a pass at the goal line instead of giving the ball to Marshawn Lynch in Super Bowl XLIX. Chris Webber tried to call an extra time out in the Michigan/UNC 1993 NCAA championship game, and J.R. Smith forgot to check the score prior to getting the rebound last week after a missed free throw, so I’m in good company.
Reluctantly, I recently checked to see what a difference Scherzer would make on my team thus far. Presently, I sit in 5th place with 102.5 points. The first place team is, yes, you guessed it, Team Morgan with 115.5 points. Scherzer has 9 wins, Kershaw has 1. Scherzer has 120 strikeouts, Kershaw has 53. Granted, I’ve had replacements for Kershaw during May, but they’ve been less than stellar. Not counting ERA and WHIP (Scherzer is better than Kershaw over more innings in both categories), simply replacing Kershaw’s wins and strikeouts with Scherzer’s, my team would have 11.5 more points, (passing Team Morgan in both categories). I’d be sitting on 114 points, in first place, ahead of Team Morgan. I currently sit in 104th place overall (out of 510), with Scherzer’s strikeouts and wins, I’d be in 43rd. Toss in his ERA/WHIP, and I’d be in the top ten overall.
It’s still only the beginning of June and a lot can change, but as of now, choosing Kershaw in the first round instead of the planned Scherzer may very well cost me thousands of dollars. I’ll check back later in the year. Perhaps Kershaw will become healthy, maybe Scherzer will falter. Most likely, neither will happen and my choice, while not to the level of Carroll, Webber or Smith, will haunt me for years to come.
Best of luck
Buster
Follow Buster @BusterH_Esq.
