Although I’ve tried to incorporate an element of risk-taking into my fantasy baseball draft strategy in recent years, in the end, I am who I am. When it comes to the core of my roster, following a conservative route is more comfortable. That is, I save the high risk/medium reward guys for the latter rounds. Why burn an early-round or even a mid-round selection, or a double-digit dollar bid in an auction, on a player with the potential to severely disappoint?
I value track record, and if I can grab someone with a strong track record at a discounted cost, well, that would be ideal. But something strange is happening this season. Many of the “sure things” who I expected to easily earn their price and possibly deliver a profit are not delivering much of anything, with the exception of aggravation.
So, inspired by the goal of jumpstarting their seasons, I’ve decided to take a closer look at these four players, who I happen to own in multiple leagues.
Kenley Jansen – Of course we’ll start with Jansen, surely the most surprising of the early-season disappointments. I’ve never been a believer in the “don’t pay for saves” draft day approach because in reality, you’re not just paying for saves when using a top-100 pick on an elite-tier stopper. You’re paying for the stellar ratios and the job security, which is especially valuable at a position where there is such a high turnover rate.
Jansen entered 2018 as the clear-cut top closer in fantasy, and the honor was well deserved. From 2015-2017, the Dodgers righty had saved 124 games in 133 chances while registering a 1.81 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and a 13.9 K/9 rate. While I wasn’t counting on owning Jansen this year, he remained on the board for a little longer than I expected in many of my drafts, and I ended up selecting him in two leagues. Let’s just say that things haven’t worked out so far. Through seven appearances, Jansen sports a 8.10 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. He’s already blown two saves, his velocity is down and there’s speculation that he might not be fully healthy. What a mess. I’m concerned, but not concerned enough to trade him for 50 cents on the dollar. All Jansen owners can do right now is wait and hope.
Jose Quintana – Heading into this season, one could make the case that outside of the true aces, Quintana had the highest floor of any starting pitcher, despite last season’s underwhelming 4.15 ERA, which was considered to be a bit fluky. The important thing was that he finished the year on a positive note, pitching to a 3.74 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts following his trade to the Cubs while whiffing 98 batters across 84 1/3 innings. His first full season in the NL was bound to be an overwhelming success, right? Not exactly. Through three starts, Quintana, who I purchased for $22 in Mixed Auction Tout Wars to serve as my SP2 and drafted as a low-end ace in another league, carries a 8.16 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. This three-start stretch has included one poor performance followed by an excellent start followed by a disaster outing. On the bright side, Quintana is too talented and sports too strong of a resume to continue struggling for much longer. Unfortunately, the rebound might be delayed, as he will be taking the mound today at Coors Field.
Carlos Santana – And here I was thinking that Santana would prove to be an outstanding value pick this year. You can even revisit this article to read about why I was convinced that the new Phillies first baseman would reward his owners with a huge profit. When I bought Santana for $20 in Tout Wars, which is an OBP league, I was quite pleased after comparing his price to the prices of some of the other first basemen, like Jose Abreu ($30), Cody Bellinger ($30), Edwin Encarnacion ($29) and Wil Myers ($25). It’s still early, so by no means am I at the point where I’m regretting the Santana purchase. Still, that .162 AVG (.294 OBP) through 20 games is tough to stomach. But here’s why I’m very optimistic that a turnaround is imminent. Santana’s .161 BABIP suggests that he’s been more than a little unlucky in the batting average department, and despite the rough start overall, he’s on pace for 81 RBIs and 97 runs scored. The power has been lacking (two home runs), but one hot streak is all it will take for him to get back on track. Oh, and he’s still displaying his trademark elite batting eye (14-to-13 BB/K ratio). Buy low right now before it’s too late.
Cameron Maybin – OK, perhaps Maybin doesn’t really fit with the rest of this group, as his year-to-year production over the course of his career has been wildly inconsistent. That said, as long as he stayed healthy this season, the veteran outfielder seemed to be a lock for 25 steals. Seriously, who was going to challenge him for playing time on that Miami team? As it turns out, Maybin is not getting everyday at-bats. He’s playing enough to make a fantasy impact but he has yet to capitalize on his opportunities, hitting a measly .212 in 52 at-bats with only one swipe. Don’t be surprised if the rebuilding (to put it lightly) Marlins further reduce his playing time as the season progresses. What a waste of three bucks at the Tout Wars auction table.
Something strange is happening this season. Strange enough to make me change who I am as a fantasy owner? I’ll get back to you in October.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn and at Baseball Prospectus.
