Things can change quickly in the NFL. The Detroit Lions’ run defense was a punching bag. So they traded for New York Giants nose tackle Damon Harrison in late October. That significantly upgraded the Lions’ ground D, and the Giants’ rushing defense fell apart.
Whether looking at matchups for start-sit decisions or gathering intel for optimal schedules for waiver pickups, look at the most recent history, not the year-to-date statistics or rankings. Roughly the last four games is a good barometer.
Pay attention to key injuries on defense. Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is an important cog in stopping the ground game. He’s been injured. When Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones is on the shelf, opposing running backs often feast.
Even though injuries are key, don’t forget that scheme can trump all. No matter how bad a run defense is, all an NFL team has to do is put more defenders in the box and that usually does the trick. With 11 defenders, most teams can stop any player they want if they really sell out to do so. It all boils down to always starting your studs, but flip of the coin lineup decisions need to weigh matchups more heavily.
This is the last week for waivers, so don’t leave any money in your FAAB wallet. Ideally, perhaps obviously, you want to start with players on teams in good offensive systems. In that mode we’ll start with the Los Angeles Rams. Those desperate at tight end will want to double check to see if Gerald Everett is still available. The 2017 second-round pick is comfortable lining up next to the tackle, in the slot, or outside as a wideout. Jared Goff may distribute some of Cooper Kupp’s targets to the sophomore,who has a relatively high upside each week in this high octane offense.
Be forewarned that until Everett earns a larger snap share (only 23 last week) that his floor is very low. Everett didn’t reel in his first catch until less than 10 minutes left in the game, and Goff had only looked his way once prior to that. Plus, if it wasn’t the third-highest scoring game in NFL history, those targets may never have materialized. By the time his first catch was recorded, the Rams are normally salting away victory and milking the clock with Todd Gurley. Don’t forget Tyler Higbee, who saw seven targets against the Chiefs and was more involved in the offense early on.
On the opposite end of the offensive spectrum are the Oakland Raiders. Beggars can’t always be choosers, so if you are desperate for WR depth, take a look at Marcell Ateman today. If Jordy Nelson (questionable) and Martavis Bryant (out) are both out of the picture, the rookie from Oklahoma State could emerge as the #1 target in a very weak receiver core. That may not sound like much and, to be honest, it isn’t, but it is something. No matter how bad Oakland is, Derek Carr is going to throw passes, and more than 60% of them will be caught. As the team with the worst record in the AFC facing the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers on the schedule weeks 13 and 14, respectively, a positive game script is all but guaranteed.
Bruce Ellington has received 16 targets the last two weeks. Detroit hosts the aforementioned Rams coming off of a bye and will most certainly be playing catchup. If Marvin Jones is out again, the former Texan can serve as desperation WR3 or a what-the-heck flex.
Lastly, don’t forget your ability to block your opponent. If you have a berth in the postseason sewn up, that’s one thing, but if you are fighting tooth and nail for a spot in the playoffs and must win, check out your opponent’s lineup, spot the biggest weakness, locate potential solutions on the wire and place a winning bid. Better that player goes off on your bench than in your adversary’s starting lineup.
