We are headed down the home stretch of the regular season in the NFFC, and teams in the running are preparing for the fantasy playoffs. Just two weeks of waiver pickups remain and then all will be cut off, and owners will be forced to manage with their 20-man roster the rest of the way.
Many backup running backs are already rostered, but a few remain available. Now that all of the “real” bye weeks are out of the way (only the Chiefs and Rams are off week 12), it’s time to use those freed up roster spots with an eye towards the playoffs. I wouldn’t risk having my championship hopes derailed simply for a lotto ticket that is running out of time to cash, so I’m making some painful drops with heavy FAAB bids to ensure I have the appropriate insurance policy.
For example, I own a couple shares of Giovani Bernard. We all saw his upside in weeks 3-4 when Joe Mixon was on the shelf. In the fold since draft day, I cut the second stringer loose to buy a James Conner safety net: Jaylen Samuels. One league I spent $123, another I shelled out $211. I had more FAAB $ in the former, but through roster analysis and FAAB $ allocation among my competitors, I spent nearly twice as much in my Rotowire Championship league than in the Primetime Main Event. Looking at league history, seems like most worthy backups often went for between $30-$60. I essentially doubled that in one league and tripled it in another to make sure I won the bid (adjusting it upwards in part due to a significantly higher store of FAAB money in this league — the more FAAB still in peoples accounts, it logically follows that higher bids in any given week may be made), even though it was likely to “waste” some FAAB.
To illustrate how I assess what I might spend on a given player in a given league, I’ll use Josh Reynolds as an example. First, I look at the roster of the team that owned Cooper Kupp, and who they currently had starting at WR and Flex. Let’s say that team had Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and Adam Thielen as wideouts 1-3, and a solid RB2 in the flex spot. Odds are they won’t see Reynolds as a must acquisition. On the other hand, if after loosing Kupp they are trotting out Josh Doctson, Taylor Gabriel and Maurice Harris, odds are they might be desperate and could spend half or even a majority of their remaining budget.
I then look at the roster of every other team in the league, to tab which teams have the greatest need and look at their remaining FAAB. Lastly, I look at league activity and place in the standings. Let’s say Team X is 2-8 and hasn’t placed a bid since week 6. Though they might have $850 left in the bank, I might ignore that if I think they’ve thrown in the towel and abandoned the team. The final bid amount is part art, part empirical science, with an intuitive gut feeling thrown into the equation. What comes out of that mix is my blind bid.
Yes, this process can be a little tedious, especially if you are in a ton of leagues, you may not have time for this prescription in each one. I’ve found that it pays dividends, so in the most important leagues I’ll spend the most time.
Alfred Morris was dropped in a few leagues. Matt Breida may set a single-season record for most number of times getting injured and returning to play… or he may finally go down for good, leaving the reigns of the 49er stable to the former Cowboy. We’ve talked about Kyle Shanahan’s system before and how it breeds successful running backs. Despite the unattractive 3.4 YPC this season, if you own Breida, Morris is a must handcuff unless you are four deep at RB.
Those desperate at QB with extra roster space may want to stash Jameis Winston. Ryan Fitzpatrick racks up the passing yards… and the turnovers, coming through for fantasy defenses with four interceptions and one fumble the last two games. In the two games Winston both started and finished, he threw for 760 total yards and four touchdowns. The Buccaneers face off against the 49ers and the Saints in the coming weeks.
Digging deep, keep an eye on the usage of Seth Roberts, who should get more looks with Jordy Nelson sidelined, and TJ Jones, who might command more targets with Marvin Jones out this week in Motown against the Panthers.
