If you didn’t accurately pick neither a New England/Jacksonville AFC Championship game, nor a Philadelphia/Minnesota NFC Championship game, don’t feel bad. You are not alone. Las Vegas correctly picked four of the eight games, failing to correctly identify Atlanta and Tennessee as first-round winners, and missing on both Pittsburgh and then Atlanta in the Divisional rounds.
Anyone in the NFFC playing along with Vegas (raise your hand along with me), is now in an unenviable position. Every NFFC Challenge team should have four players from their original lineup, with each player earning three times their fantasy points this weekend. A “perfect” lineup would have four additional players from their second-week lineup, with each of those players earning twice their fantasy points this weekend. Thus, a “perfect” lineup would need to replace just four players.
I don’t have that perfect lineup. Expecting Pittsburgh and Atlanta to win last Sunday, I added Antonio Brown to my initial lineup that included Le’Veon Bell, and Devonta Freeman to join Julio Jones. Now, with those two losses (and the expected loss of the Saints and Titans), I need to replace a whopping six players. So, where to go?
All teams need to add one Patriot. This is pretty simple. By now, most teams already have Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowsi and/or Dion Lewis. Unless a team has two quarterbacks not named Brady (seeing that the three other remaining quarterbacks are Case Keenum, Blake Bortles, and Nick Foles, I’m doubting that this is a problem), choosing either Gronkowski or Lewis should be simple.
Less simple is finding a third (or in some cases like mine, a second) Jacksonville player.
Leonard Fournette was a popular pick, and the Jacksonville defense is solid, but teams can only have one defense, so anyone with Minnesota’s or Philadelphia’s defense is precluded from taking the Jags. The available options are uninspiring.
Even in an 87 total point game last weekend, Blake Bortles threw for just 214 yards with one touchdown. While the New England defense over the 17 game season was just average, they’ve been excellent over the final months of the season. Bortles has faced the Patriots once in his career, back in 2015, passing for 242 yards and one touchdown.
T.J. Yeldon’s 2017 totals are misleading as he earned half of his total yards in games Fournette missed. Yeldon didn’t play in the wild-card round against Buffalo. He gained 20 yards on Sunday with a touchdown, plus he caught three passes for 57 yards. Less can be expected against the Pats.
The Jaguars receivers are a crapshoot, with Marqise Lee’s health in question, and Keelan Cole and Allen Hurns disappointing weekly. Given the rules and the matchup, Fournette, the Jags defense and Marqise Lee are the choices. If you can’t fit in the Jags defense, then you have yet another problem. A team that finds itself lower in the standings should seriously consider the big-play potential of Keelan Cole who has the ability to explode as he did against an overmatched Texans defense in week 15 (7 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown).
Minnesota is a fine fantasy team, with the second best remaining quarterback in Keenum, two top receivers in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, and two options at running backs in Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. Theilen is the safe pick, but as demonstrated Sunday, Diggs has the big play potential.
Murray has seen an average of 20 carries per game over the last four games and has scored four times over that stretch. He’s only averaging 3.8 yards per carry, but given the rock so often, he’s about as safe a pick as you can get this late in the competition. McKinnon has averaged only nine carries per game over the past four, and only once in those four games has he caught the ball more the three times. While McKinnon certainly carries more big-play potential than Murray, he hasn’t scored a touchdown since early December, and can’t be counted on this week.
Philadelphia is a mess. Zach Ertz is a must. This is the perfect spot for Jake Elliott, as the thought of any other Eagle is less than ideal. Seeing that you have to have three, the enigmatic Jay Ajayi is about as good a choice as possible. Depending on position availability, the next Eagle would come down to LeGarrette Blount (who failed to score a touchdown in the regular season after the Ajayi acquisition), Alshon Jeffrey (averaging less than 5 catches per game over the past five games) and Nelson Agholor (hasn’t accounted for more than 64 yards just once in the past 12 weeks). It’s pretty ugly.
I’m missing the Steelers and the Saints, and their fantasy-friendly rosters.
Best of luck,
Buster
