As a general rule of thumb, rostering Baltimore starting pitchers is a bad idea. A schedule chock full of Yankees and Red Sox is not an ideal recipe for good ratios, not to mention the Bill James handbook has Camden Yards listed as the second best Home Run park for hitters in the American League. Toss in the Orioles terrible record of developing pitchers and I usually “just say no.”
Nevertheless, I’m going to break that rule this weekend and go after Yefry Ramirez on teams I’m desperate for starting pitching help. The book on the Oriole rookie is fastball, change, curve, slider, leaning most on the fastball and the change, the latter being his best pitch, playing well off his four-seamer. When I saw him, the fastball registered a modest 91-93 mph on the radar gun. The changeup, when I could identify it, about 85.
What stuck out to me, was by appearances it sure seemed like he had more than four pitches in the arsenal: able to change hitters’ eye-level thru changing location, as well as consistently varying the amount and direction movement, along with changing speeds. Phillies hitters had seemed to have no idea what was coming next or how to adjust, making hard contact just twice. The youngster yielded only one hit. I’d advise a buck or two as a stash and hold to see if Yefry can keep pounding the strike zone and limiting runners.
Last time I highlighted Greg Holland as a speculative add for saves down the road. This week the former Colorado closer had a rocky outing, struggling with command, consistently missing with the fastball in the dirt. This is just my opinion, but I suspect there might have been an issue with the mound affecting Holland’s release point. Jordan Hicks did the same thing initially, but was able to adjust and get out of a jam, Holland not so much. Even Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas, who had never given out more than two free passes, walked four. For the moment, Holland remains a hold for me, especially with Bud Norris‘ recent finger ailment and the rookie’s inexperience with the role.
To stay in the winner’s circle, one has to adapt to the changes in the fantasy market and the fantasy landscape. In previous years in the NFBC, even the worst scrub closer, the terrible one that everyone “knows” will lose the job in three weeks, you STILL had to pony up three FAAB figures to sniff a chance at landing them on the waiver wire. That’s changed this year. Will Smith, presumably the head of the committee at AT&T park, was picked up by 28 teams in the Main Event last Sunday, and 15 of those teams procured his services for $21 or LESS. The leading candidate for Saves in San Francisco remains a free agent in 6% of NFBC Leagues.
Kansas city closer Wily Peralta was had for similar bargain prices. Tyler Clippard, Sam Dyson two weeks ago, and others remarkably cheap, the list inexpensive save options goes on. Fueled by an unprecedented volatility of firemen in 2018, this represents a considerable shift in the fantasy market, making saves no longer a scarce resource. Keep this in mind when we head into the 2019 drafting season. No longer do you HAVE to walk away from the draft table with two or even one closer. Punt and recover is now a viable strategy moving forward. I have a lot of time to ruminate on this, but I’m leaning towards fading any and all closers prior to the 10th round, and even then only drafting one if it’s in a sweet spot. The opportunity cost of bypassing a more reliable resource (like a veteran hitter) or one with more upside (last year’s bum or promising rookie) is no longer worth the saves price tag.
To that end, don’t forget researching the “Player Movement” section of the NFBC website. There you can track market patterns for similar players you want to bid on in upcoming weeks to get feel for what a competitive bid looks like, as well as review player pickups to see if there might be an asset available in your leagues that escaped your notice previously. It’s located in the “Stats” pull-down menu on your NFBC league home page.
Not many other attractive arms available this week, but Joe Jimenez is still there in 26% of Main Event leagues. Shane Greene may not be long for the DL, but even upon his return, Jimenez remains a great handcuff in a deadline trade scenario. Edwin Jackson is also worth a look (available in 91%). Lastly, as difficult as it is to type his name, James Shields made some mechanical adjustments resulting in a 3.15 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over the 10 starts prior to yesterday’s thrashing in Houston (which can be forgiven). That’s a pretty good sample. Just be wary of tough road starts, and the fact that he could remember that he’s James Shields at any time.
