This week we’ll go over a number of things to look for when trolling thru the detritus on the NFBC waiver wires. In pitchers I look for velocity, command, control, quality pitches, the ability to pitch in, out, up, and down, and the ability to change speeds effectively. Let’s touch upon velocity. All else being equal (you’re going to hear that a lot), more is better. However we all know that simply lighting up the radar gun, by itself, won’t get you anywhere. Major league hitters can time up a triple digit fastball if they know it’s coming.
Context is important. Hitting is timing. Pitching is the art of disrupting that timing. Throwing fast is a start, but it helps if you have a changeup in the arsenal, preferably one with at least a 10 mph speed differential from the fastball. Package that with the same arm slot and the same arm speed, and coming out of a pitchers hand the guy at the plate can’t tell if it’s a fastball or a changeup. That’s a timing issue. Now add in pitching in and out. A smart pitcher will pitch in and up with a higher velocity, and then work the off speed stuff low and away.
Obviously some variance is required, but generally this approach will accentuate this differential even more. That is because a 95 mph four-seamer located high and inside will seem significantly faster than the same pitch located low and away. This can really mess with the hitter’s timing. On the other hand, the opposite approach (off-speed high and tight/fastballs low and away), this will speed up the off speed stuff and slow down the fastball, at least in terms of the hitter trying to time up his bat with the pitch and make contact.
Another item to track is the height of the pitcher. The taller pitchers have longer arms, and all else being equal, this translates to a release point that is closer to home plate, which gives the hitter less time to react. Many people wondered how Chris Young could get away with a mid 80’s fastball for so many years. The answer is he’s 6’10” tall. He releases the ball much closer to the plate, effectively adding a few miles per hour in terms of how it’s perceived by the opponent.
Now there is a caveat here, especially when it comes to young pitchers. All that height is a great advantage, except it can be a double-edged sword since it can be more difficult to get that extra wingspan under control enough to command pitches well. My philosophy is that this is even more difficult for tall southpaws. I don’t know if an empirical study has been done to prove this, it’s just my perception. Anyone over 6’5” in height had better have a consistent track record of limiting walks or I’m going to stay away.
I also want a hurler that has more than just two pitches in his toolbox. Trusting an arm that isn’t able to command and control at least 3 pitches is a dicey proposition. First time they can’t control their secondary pitch, hitters sit fastball and it’s time for a shellacking. Also, look for pitchers that get strike one. Starting off with an 0-1 count is infinitely better than 1-0. Obviously a high K-rate and low walk rate is desired. All of the usual stats are important: WHIP, FIP (or XFIP or SIERRA if you prefer), Swinging strike rate, O-swing %, etc., but when we are looking at waiver pickups, we have to make decisions based on an extremely small sample size, and these ‘scouting’ items have served me well in separating the wheat from the chaff.
Obviously waiver assets usually don’t check all of these boxes, just look for as many as you can get.
Follow Greg @LiquidHippo.
