Ray Flowers misled me. OK, Ray Flowers and I never had a conversation prior to the NFBC Main Event draft this past Saturday. Yet, I felt a bit cheated as I had researched Ray, followed his “expert” (read: commentator and/or writer) drafts and listened to his Sirius XM show all in an attempt to get a leg up on Ray in Saturday’s draft. It didn’t work. Or did it?
Have you ever had a draft where virtually everyone you thought might be available actually was? That was my Saturday with Ray. If I don’t do well, it won’t be because I got sniped, but instead only because I didn’t have the right plan. Ray unknowingly played a part in this.
Last week, I posted a column in which I explained what I had hoped would happen at the draft Saturday. Happily, I was a bit wrong. Let’s look it over.
What Actually Happened
I had the 13th pick and figured that Chris Sale would be gone before I had a chance to pick. I resigned myself to getting Trevor Story, which wouldn’t be all that bad. Surprisingly, Sale (Main Event ADP 11) was available at 13 and I happily gobbled him up. Aaron Judge went at pick 4 and Francisco Lindor went at 12, paving the way for me to get Sale.
Jacob Halusker, a fine player and multiple Main Event champion picked Story at 14. I knew from my extensive Ray Flowers research that Ray would take Jose Altuve (ME ADP 15) and likely either Alex Bregman or Paul Goldschmidt. There was no way Ray would be taking Bryce Harper. He told me so (well, not directly, but he told all his listeners about how Harper wasn’t any better than Justin Upton. More on that later.) I assumed that Ray just didn’t like Harper. Well, Flowers passed on Altuve, opting instead for Alex Bregman and Harper. Halusker took Trevor Bauer, and I became the surprised and ecstatic owner of Altuve at pick 18.
As I wrote last week, I really wanted Starling Marte in the third, but I didn’t think I had a snowball’s chance of getting him. Well, it must have been really cold in Vegas, as Marte (ME ADP 37 was around for me at 43). I had planned on taking Gary Sanchez in the fourth at pick 48. However, not only was Sanchez available, but so was J.T. Realmuto (ME ADP 45). Realmuto promises similar RBI and run numbers with a higher batting average but less power. Knowing that I would be going with low-average power hitters later in the draft (they are remarkably undervalued due to their batting average drain), I needed some average stability and went with Realmuto in the fourth at 48.
I had targeted Jonathan Villar (ME ADP 71) in the fifth, never expecting him to fall to pick 73. Lo and behold, Villar was available at 73, and he became a member of my team. This did cause a bit of a problem, as I had really wanted both Roughed Odor (7th round – pick 103) and Byron Buxton (9th round – pick 138). However, with Altuve, Marte and Villar, I had two second basemen and a multitude of speed, so my needs were no longer satisfied by Odor or Buxton.
I had anticipated that the closer run would start mid-fifth round (check out the column, I really did). Five closers were gone by the 10th pick in the fifth round. I took Villar but had to get a closer in the sixth, otherwise the run would have run me over and I’d be left with Mychal Givens and Wade Davis to anchor by pen. That wasn’t going to happen. Halusker took the sixth closer with his 6th round pick, and I followed that up with Roberto Osuna. Two more closers were taken in the next four picks, and another two in the next seven, depleting the reasonably certain closer pool.
At this point, I had a stud starter, a stud reliever and lots of speed with a modicum of power. Having already foreshadowed it, I really wanted, needed, Joey Gallo in the 7th. The problem was, of course, that my 7th round pick was pick number 103 and Gallo had a ME ADP of 99. As everything had been going my way, I was prepared for disappointment. Disappointment never came, and Gallo joined the team. Incidentally, my original 7th round target, Odor, was indeed available for me. Not needing speed, I was in the market for Corey Seager in the 8th (pick 108). As things had been going my way, I was cocky and almost expecting Seager to last seven picks past his ME ADP (101). Of course he did, and Seager was mine.
At this point, Chris Sale must have felt lonely, as I had not taken a second starter. One problem with getting a superstar starter is that one pitcher can’t do it by himself. We often fall into the trap of not taking a starter for too long after taking a starter in the first round. I almost fell into that trap. Twenty-four players would be selected after I took Seager and before I picked again. At this point in the draft, I figured that likely 15 of those would be pitchers. I would be happy with Chris Archer, Luis Castillo or Charlie Morton, but didn’t expect any to survive to me. However, only six starting pitchers were selected, and Charlie Morton (ME ADP 116) fell to me at 133 in the 9th round. My 10th round pick was at 138, and I was torn between the potential of Robbie Ray (ME 106) and the talent of the oft-injured Yu Darvish (ME 124). As things were going my way, I figured both would be waiting for me at 138, and they were. I opted for Darvish, a decision I hope not to regret.
After 10 rounds, my team looked like this (with my expected pick in parenthesis):
- Chris Sale (Trevor Story)
- Jose Altuve (Justin Verlander)
- Starling Marte (Cody Bellinger)
- J.T. Realmuto (Gary Sanchez)
- Jonathan Villar (Villar)
- Roberto Osuna (Closer)
- Joey Gallo (Odor)
- Corey Seager (Castillo)
- Charlie Morton (Buxton)
- Yu Darvish
Of note, Ray Flowers, who had said that Harper was no better than Upton, and then took Harper in the first, took Upton in the 7th — 14 picks before his ME ADP. Apparently, Ray liked both Harper and Upton. My bad.
The remainder of the draft went as, if not better than, expected. Edwin Encarnacion and his 30-plus home runs fell to me in the 11th. Oft-injured Ryan Braun (ME ADP 185) was available in the 14th (pick 198) and young catching phenom Danny Jansen (ME ADP 208) joined my team in the 15tth (pick 223).
This is the entire team (round):
C: J.T. Realmuto (4)
C: Danny Jansen (15)
1B: Edwin Encarnacion (11t)
2B: Jose Altuve (2n)
3B: Eduardo Escobar (13)
SS: Corey Seager (8)
MI: Jonathan Villar (5)
CI: Maikel Franco (17)
OF: Starling Marte (3)
OF: Joey Gallo (7)
OF: Ryan Braun (14)
OF: Jorge Soler (18)
OF: Shin-Soo Choo (21)
UT: Kole Calhoun (23)
RES: Yonder Alonso 1b (24)
RES: Neil Walker 1b-2b-3b (28)
RES: Brandon Crawford SS (29)
RES: Alex Verdugo = Cut, picked up Yandi Diaz 3b (30)
SP: Chris Sale (1)
SP: Charlie Morton (9)
SP: Yu Darvish (10)
SP: Rich Hill (16)
SP: Kyle Gibson (19)
SP: Jon Lester (20)
SP: Trevor Richards (22)
CL: Roberto Osuna (6)
CL: Will Smith (12)
RP: Kelvin Herrera (25)
RP: Yoshihisa Hirano (26)
RP: Mark Melancon (27)
Melancon was a necessary handcuff to Will Smith. Hirano has a shot at closing in Arizona, once Greg Holland implodes. Herrera is only a couple of bad outings from (or a trade of) Alex Colome. It’s a long season, but at least for now I’m tied for first overall.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
