The NFBC 15-Team Main Event kicks off in about four and a half weeks. Which makes this a good time to review some general guidelines that have served me well over the years. You have to be flexible and adjust as curveballs are thrown your way during the draft. There’s an exception to every rule, but those should be rare.
1) Don’t draft a catcher in the first 10 rounds. All position players run the risk of injury, but none more so than those that don the tools of ignorance. It’s not merely DL time we are concerned about, it’s those little nicks, dings, a batter follows through on a swing and causes a ‘minor’ injury to a catcher’s hand, finger, and while he might play through it, the production can be diminished when not 100%. The one exception this year is Gary Sanchez(25).
2) You need two upper tier pitchers to anchor your ERA and WHIP, as well as give you a jump-start on K’s. You don’t HAVE to draft them early, but that’s what I recommend unless you are clairvoyant when it comes to predicting breakout pitchers. Just assuming that there are plenty of pitchers and that you’ll find an ace on the waiver wire, that’s normally a blue-print for an atomic bomb, landing on your ratios. As soon as you hit the 5th round, most pitchers from that point on carry a decent measure of risk and/or volatility. Noah Syndergaard(36) deserves mention. Just say no. I’ve been sounding the warning about the perils of Mets starters for years. It’s great the organization revamped their medical staff. I still need to see a year of good fruit before I go anywhere near Thor.
3) Fade the Hype. Getting the shiny new toy or the ‘prize’ that everyone is coveting may make you feel good on draft day, but more often than not at the season’s end you will be found wanting. Hype doesn’t get you roto points. Cory Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, David Dahl, Dansby Swanson, and Stephen Piscotty have all seduced the best of NFBC draft veterans, even though they’ve produced nothing in the stat book to justify their cost. Alex Bregman(32) is a nice player, but he’s not worthy of a pick in the 2nd or early 3rd round. That’s a par play even in a best case scenario. Wilson Contreras(55) is also being overdrafted. Ronald Acuna(113), Yoan Monchada(122), Rafael Devers(132)….none of them have done anything yet. Sure, one of them will probably hit the ground running, but I don’t like to play roulette until the later rounds.
4) Ignore spring training stats. Greg Bird, Bryce Harper, Jesus Aguilar, Jabari Blash and Chris Marrero topped the exhibition Home Run leaderboard in 2017. Those results produce no fantasy relevance. Something to keep in mind when games start in Arizona and Florida.
5) Don’t put too much weight into position scarcity. Every pick has opportunity costs. If you reach for a catcher, or middle infielder, you could have drafted a non-scarce position, such as outfield, with better stats than the OF you will end up with later because you just ‘had’ to fill a scarce position first. When you compare each theoretical pair you end up with, it’s often a wash. Buster Posey(68) and Wilson Contreras(55) both are valued too highly due to scarcity at catcher. At shortstop, Corey Seager(41), Trevor Story(110), and Alex Bregman(32) are getting too much love.
6) Don’t get chained down by ADP. Average Draft Position is a useful tool to gauge what the market is doing, but drafts are like snowflakes, no two are exactly alike. You don’t want to get into a habit of ‘overpaying’, but don’t be afraid to reach on a player you are really high on. Make sure you get ‘your guys’ and don’t be afraid to overpay for them once in a while.
7) Early on, don’t take too many ‘upside’ players. Steady, reliable, proven, boring players should make up the majority of your first 10 picks. Having a high floor outweighs having a high ceiling in the early stages.
Pitchers and catchers have already reported, but games don’t start in earnest until Friday February 23rd. Next time I’ll bring a couple more tips, some players to avoid, and perhaps a few sleepers for your NFBC drafts in March.
Follow Greg @Liquidhippo.
