It’s hard to believe it, but we are almost halfway through the 2024 major league baseball season. Time flies when you’re having fun. However, I understand that the majority of my readers might not be having that much fun this season navigating all of the injuries. If that describes you, I can empathize with your pain. I have one team in a draft and hold league with Todd Zola that still has almost half of its roster inactive.
This week, I will focus on mid-season fantasy baseball strategies. I hope this column will help guide some of you to the promised land, help solidify some other teams for a competitive stretch run and add some pleasure to the second half of your season – even if your team is out of contention. I will discuss strategies for teams at the bottom of the standings, in the middle of the pack, in contention and in first place.
BOTTOM OF THE STANDINGS
If you are at, or near the bottom of the standings, you may need to make some drastic moves – if you can. I added that caveat because if you’re in a draft and hold league with no trades allowed, you can’t make any drastic moves. This describes my plight with the above-mentioned draft and hold team. I’m in last place, and my situation is quite hopeless. All I can do is set my lineup each week and do the best that I can to compete.
If you’re in a league where you can trade and utilize the waiver wire, you may have a slim chance to stage an epic comeback. Still, this is still a hard place to be. It may seem hopeless to catch up, and in reality, it just might be (especially in Rotisserie, or roto leagues). However, remember what Winston Churchill said – giving up is not an option. Make a trade, stream some pitchers and hitters. Take some chances.
Your team may be in the same situation as my draft and hold team. It seems like every pitcher on your roster is having Tommy John surgery. I had invested a first-round draft pick on Spencer Strider in this league only to learn on April 6th that Strider had damaged his UCL in his right elbow and would miss the remainder of the season. Okay, a quick show of hands. How many of you took Strider in the first round of your draft?
If you’re in a roto league, it’s pretty easy to see where the problems lie. If you’re doing well in runs, home runs and RBI, you may have drafted a bunch of power hitters. Consider trading some bats for arms. Or you may need to drop an under-performing player for a prospect, or up and comers. Bobby Miller returned from the IL last Wednesday and struggled. Buy low on him, or he may even be sitting on your waiver wire.
MIDDLE OF THE PACK
If you are in the middle of the pack at the halfway point, your situation is far from hopeless. There are three months left to make up ground. Before you make any big moves, do an analysis of your team. Are you achieving consistent results each week? Is there anything that you can do to move the needle without pulling off a big trade. Keep in mind that a trade comes with risk, and you may not need to take that risk to move up.
If you’ve been reading my columns, you have heard me preach about protecting your ratios (batting average, ERA and WHIP) above all else. In a standard 5×5 roto league, there are seven counting categories and three ratio categories. If you are near the top in the ratio categories and behind in the counting categories, you can catch up. But if you’re behind in the ratio categories, you’re going to have a hard time making up ground.
For instance, I’m currently third in my friends and family league out of seven teams. In this particular league, there are only two ratio categories because the commissioner chose holds as a pitching category instead of WHIP. I’m thankful he did because I’m in last place in ERA. If WHIP was the tenth category, I’d be in a deeper hole. It will be difficult to move out of the cellar in ERA, so I’m going to have to excel in the other nine categories.
However, if your ratios are in good shape, you can start making moves to improve in the counting categories. If you’re behind in home runs, trade for Anthony Santander. The Orioles slugger has 20 home runs on the season and six in the previous week. Santander, a career .247 hitter, comes with some batting average risk, but he’s on pace to hit 40 home runs in 2024. Of course, more home runs mean more runs and RBI.
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
If your team is in playoff contention now, you should be having fun. I define a team in playoff contention as a team that’s not in first place but within striking distance. This definition describes my team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). At this writing, I just moved into third place overall in the 420-team field. I’m in first place in my 15-team league, but winning the league would only be a consolation prize for me this year.
In my opinion, a team in contention is in perhaps the most difficult position of the four categories. Your team is doing well, so you’re not even thinking about dismantling your team via trade or add drops. If you’re in this category, you’re built a competitive team and really aren’t too concerned about falling out of contention. But the question is how do you take it to the next level and bring home the league championship?
In my opinion, the way to improve is to identify your weaknesses and address them. Are you dominating two or three categories, and sitting in the middle, or the top five of other categories? Or, is your team like my TGFBI team where you’re dominating seven or eight categories and just average (or worse) in the others. On my team, I’m first in eight categories in my 15-team league, seventh in stolen bases and 13th in saves.
If you’re behind in a counting category, identify players that can help you in that category. If it’s stolen bases, you might think about trading for Elly De La Cruz. But he’d come with a high price. Instead, check your waiver wire for players like David Hamilton, or Luis Rengifo. The latter’s multi-position eligibility makes him particularly attractive. If they’re both been gobbled up, there’s an even better chance of finding Jose Caballero.
YOU’RE THE FIRST PLACE TEAM
If you’re in first place in your league, I know you’re having fun. Congratulations. Your first half was something to be proud of. However, winning the first half of the season doesn’t mean the championship trophy is yours. It means that your pitchers have been relatively healthy and are performing as they should, or over their heads. Your bats are mashing, and your team batting average is high. Enjoy your success, but don’t become complacent.
No matter how good you did in the first half, your team does have a weakness. Every team does. Perhaps you don’t have enough depth. Maybe you have had a surprising replacement player added from the waiver wire that has been crushing it. Perhaps, you picked up Nick Gonzales in a deep league and have been thrilled with the performance of the Pirates infielder. Know that the ugly thing called negative regression has already set in.
If you’ve been on top most of the season, you’re probably not making many waiver wire moves and rejecting every trade offer that has come your way. That’s certainly understandable, but you might be resting on your laurels. I guarantee you that your team is going to face adversity in the second half. I have Aaron Judge on my TGFBI team and in my friends and family league, and I’m holding my breath every day, always fearing the worst.
If you’re in a league that allows trade, I’d target a middle-of-the pack team for a trade. This is a great opportunity to sell high on a hitter, or a pitcher. An example would be Luis Gil. I have Gil on my TGFBI team, and I would trade him if I could because last Thursday’s loss is probably a harbinger of negative regression. If not, you can bet the Yankees are going to limit the innings of their prize rookie. Always be thinking about ways to make your team better.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter at ThomasLSeltzer1.
