Odds are your league has already wrapped up it’s 2020 season, but some remain undecided and hinge on Week 17, where player performance is challenging to predict. If this includes your league, I advise a requesting your league manager change the format for the following reasons:
- Teams that have locked in playoff seeding rest their studs.
- Teams with nothing to play for often hold their better players out.
This first reason is huge because the best NFL teams usually are composed of fantasy superstars. Rather than risk an injury in a meaningless game, teams typically hold them out as a precaution. Even if the players aren’t ruled out prior to game time, they’ll most likely play an extremely limited role and have next to zero upside. The less obvious factor here is defense, as the same principle exists for the teams’ players on that side of the ball meaning their opponent has a softer matchup than it appears on paper.
Teams that have already been eliminated are likely to rest any player not at 100%. This fact combined with subpar defense (a characteristic of most bad teams) creates opportunity for breakout performances from lesser known players. Look for any game featuring an eliminated team, especially if two are matched up, to be fantasy friendly.
Another telling aspect of Week 17 is that all games are divisional, so these teams have already played once and half of Sunday’s games are rematches from Week 17 last year. Referencing both games can reveal noteworthy trends. Another pattern to consider, lesser players often contribute impactful stat lines in Week 17. Examples from 2019 include:
- RB Gus Edwards 21/130/0, 12.2 FP
- RB Damien Williams 12/124/2, 31.4 FP
- RB Mike Boone 17/148/1, 24 FP
- RB Ryquell Armstead total 15/85/1, 19.5 FP
- RB DeAndre Washington total 25/132/0, 21.2 FP
- WR Brandon Zylstra 6/96/0, 15.6 FP
- WR Duke Williams 6/108/0, 16.8 FP
- WR Breshad Perriman 5/134/1, 24.4 FP
- WR Damiere Boyd 7/74/1, 20.4 FP
- WR Hunter Renfrow 6/102/1, 22.1 FP
- WR Steven Sims 5/81/1, 18.5 FP
- WR Michael Gallup 5/98/3, 32.8 FP
- TE Dan Arnold 4/76/1, 16.6 FP
- TE Kaden Smith 8/98/0, 17.8 FP
I’m merely using these performances from 2019 Week 17 to show how lesser, widely available players can take on a larger role and am not endorsing any of these players. In profiling each Week 17 game below, I’ll be using the term L for locked playoff seeding, S for fighting for seeding, B for fighting for playoff berth and E for eliminated from playoff contention. A slightly different format, below all 16 games will be dissected and all possible fantasy relevant factors identified.
Washington, B at Philadelphia, E
If Alex Smith returns for Washington, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic, Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas should all be started against a weak Philly Defense. If another QB is pinned as the starter, McKissic is the only safe play. Jalen Hurts has been a revelation since taking over for Carson Wentz but expectations should be tempered as Washington is allowing 12.7 FPPG over the last six weeks compared to the 17.9 league average. He and Miles Sanders are the only locks.
Buffalo, S at Miami, B
Buffalo has the inside track for the two seed but can fall as far as four and Miami needs a win or some help to make the playoffs so this game should play close to normal.
Green Bay, S at Chicago, B
Green Bay locks in the one seed with a win and Chicago needs a win or Arizona loss to make the playoffs so this is another competitive game. In their week 12 matchup, Green Bay rushed for 182 yards as a team which puts AJ Dillon, who scored 25.9 points Sunday, or Jamaal Williams in play in addition to Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Robert Tonyan. For Chicago, David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are no-brainers while Jimmy Graham is an option with 22.9 points Sunday.
Baltimore, B at Cincinnati, E
Baltimore needs a win to make the playoffs so Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Mark Andrews should be universally started. Cincinnati has played well each of the last two weeks which makes Giovani Bernard and Tee Higgins start candidates. Semaje Perine is intriguing after nearly doubling his season total with 29.6 points Sunday but is obviously a risky option.
Pittsburgh, S at Cleveland, B
Pittsburgh needs a win to stay in contention for the AFC’s second seed while Cleveland can guarantee a playoff spot with a win of its own. As a result, all typical fantasy relevant players from each team are solid options.
Minnesota, E at Detroit, E
This is the first match of eliminated teams which means fireworks could be in store as the teams are averaging allowing 36 points per game over the last five weeks. Monitor Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen’s status in addition to Matthew Stafford. Both teams feature bottom of the barrel run defenses so whoever starts at running back should be in lineups while Detroit’s receivers aren’t a strong option if Stafford is out.
Jacksonville, E at Indianapolis, B
Indianapolis needs a win and some help so a matchup with the worst team in the league is perfect for them and Jonathan Taylor, who scored 19.4 more points Sunday. Zach Pascal, TY Hilton and Nyheim Hines are also worth consideration. Dare Ogunbowale saw 17 touches and is worth a shot if James Robinson is held out again.
Los Angeles Chargers, E at Kansas City, L
Kansas City is the only team locked into their current seed which means Patrick Mahomes, Le’Veon Bell, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will likely be limited and should be out of lineups. This makes Darrell Williams an attractive play as he’s impressed when given the opportunity. With Keenan Allen likely out again, look for Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler to step up their production against Kansas City’s second string defense.
New York Jets, E at New England E
New York’s consecutive wins against playoff teams validates Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios’ recent hot streak and both are starting options. It’s difficult to discern the quality options on New England prior to their performance Monday night but I would advise against any of their players given the team’s offensive struggles.
Dallas, B at New York Giants, B
If Washington loses, the winner of this game wins the NFC East so this match is full stakes. Dallas is averaging 36 points per game over the last three weeks which elevates Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup to starter status. New York has struggled of late and Evan Engram is the only viable player for lineups.
Atlanta, E at Tampa Bay, S
These teams just faced off last week so that high scoring affair can be used as reference. For Atlanta, Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley are the only safe options while Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are locks for Tampa.
New Orleans, S at Carolina, E
Look for New Orleans to run the ball down Carolina’s throats as much as they can, leading to a pass heavy game script for Carolina. Christian McCaffrey is likely going to be held out making Mike Davis and Carolina’s trio of receivers the only options in this game other than Alvin Kamara and possibly Latavius Murray.
Tennessee, S at Houston, E
This projects as a slug fest and is a rematch of Week 17 from last year when Derrick Henry rushed for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game that meant everything to Tennessee and nothing to Houston. Start Tennessee’s regulars in addition to Deshaun Watson, David Johnson and Brandin Cooks.
Las Vegas, E at Denver, E
In another 2019 Week 17 rematch, Las Vegas’ offense should soar while Denver’s young receivers could pop. The only safe plays are Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller but Nelson Agholor, Noah Fant and Melvin Gordon are upside plays.
Seattle, S at San Francisco, E
Chris Carson and DK Metcalf are the only safe plays for Seattle as Russell Wilson’s performance has been down and Tyler Lockett is heavily correlated with Wilson. For San Francisco, Jeff Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are startable with Wilson being the only lock.
Arizona, B at Los Angeles Rams, B
This is easily the highest stake game of the week as the loser is most likely eliminated while the winner makes the playoffs, meaning each team will go all out. Jared Goff’s thumb injury makes it difficult to start any Los Angeles pass catcher, while Malcolm Brown is the only healthy running back available. If Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are limited, Brown is the only viable starter. Arizona is facing their own injuries but Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins should be ready to go and Kenyan Drake is a tasty option if Chase Edmunds is held out. Regardless, expect a low scoring affair from this one.
