Clearly, Taylor Swift doesn’t play fantasy baseball. Her most recent song, End Game, goes like this, “I wanna be your end game; I wanna be your first string, I wanna be you’re A-Team, I wanna be your end game, end game.” Ok, before you get any further, no I don’t listen regularly to Taylor Swift. I do, however, have a fourteen year-old son, so don’t judge.
The end game in fantasy baseball is indeed important, but not for the reasons Ms. Swift seems to think. The end game is, of course, the last few picks in your draft. Generally, those players are cut within the first two or three weeks of the season, replaced by equally inept players. Occasionally, a diamond in the rough is found, and such treasures can change a team’s fate. Aaron Judge was the 349th player (by average) taken in the NFBC main event last year. As there are 15 teams, this meant that Judge’s average draft position was in the 24th round. Charlie Morton was taken, by average, 409th overall, falling in the 27th round. A pair of sluggers, Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger went 436th and 445th overall, somewhere in the 29th round. Logan Morrison, when drafted, went 517th. Clearly, there is some value in the end game. However, for every Bellinger or Judge, there are dozens of Bartolo Colons and Dan Vogelbachs.
Many managers try to save their second catcher, and sometimes even their first catchers for the end game. Indeed, last year in the NFBC main event, only 21 catchers, by average, went in the first 20 rounds, with nine teams getting their catcher in the final third of the draft, much in the end game. The thought process is simple, after the first dozen or so catchers, they’re all the same, so why waste a top 20 round pick on somebody when you can get that somebody’s twin five or ten rounds later?
This year, I’m not so sure. Four catchers, Gary Sanchez, Willson Contreras, Buster Posey and Salvador Perez are clearly in the top tier. After that quartet, the next two tiers include ten additional catchers (J.T. Realmuto, Yadier Molina, Evan Gattis, Mike Zunino, Wilson Ramos, Welington Castillo, Jonathan Lucroy, Austin Barnes, Brian McCann and Yasmani Grandal). All have warts, but certainly won’t hurt your team. That puts the number at fourteen draft-worthy catchers.
If you hold off and wait until the 19th round, you are looking at the likes of Austin Hedges, Christian Vazquez, Chris Iannetta and Travis d’Arnaud. That looks pretty bad, but not nearly as bad as if you wait a bit longer, where you are looking at part-timers Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, James McCann, has-beens Russell Martin, Stephen Vogt and Matt Wieters, never-was players like Tucker Barnhart, Francisco Mejia, Chance Sisco, Manny Pina and Jason Castro. It’s ugly.
Think I forgot anyone? Ok, the next ten on the NFBC ADP are Yan Gomes, Alex Avila, Martin Maldonado, Francisco Cervelli, Tom Murphy, Bruce Maxwell, Caleb Joseph, Cameron Rupp, Devin Mesoraco and Chris Herrmann. Maybe a case can be made for Avila, but that’s still a group that can make ugly seem attractive.
So, what to do? It’s bold, and can be considered extreme, but waiting for a first or second catcher after the 19th round is going to leave a hole in your lineup big enough to drive a semi through. Serviceable outfielders are readily available after the 19th round. Peruse this list of outfielders last year drafted after pick 300: Josh Reddick, Cameron Maybin, Kevin Pillar, Michael Conforto, Shin-Soo Choo, and Judge.
I’ve been playing the catcher-end game for the first fourteen years of the NFBC. Although I’ve won the league twice and cashed other times, I have to learn to evolve. I can’t stomach another year of Francisco Cervelli or Stephen Vogt. As a result, I have every intention of bucking the trend and sewing up my two catcher spots in the first fifteen rounds. Yes, there is inherent risk as catchers rarely make it through the season unscathed. However, catcher projections and past history take into account those injuries. No one is projecting Salvador Perez or Evan Gattis to amass 600 plate appearances. They will miss time, that’s a given. However, with the availability of serviceable outfielders and middle relievers, now is the year to start jumping on catching early.
Best of luck,
Buster
