Continuing our theme of alternating hitters and pitchers, this week we’ll investigate pitchers’ BB% and K% as we did last week with batters. There are a few different approaches to drafting pitchers in points leagues: high K%, innings-eaters or some combination of low ERA and WHIP. Today’s exercise attempts to combine the upside of high strikeout pitchers while also factoring in walks, which are entirely preventable.
To do so we’ll be looking at K% and BB% – the two outcomes where a ball isn’t put into play. The logic behind this is simple enough. A pitcher earns one extra point by striking out a batter and loses a single point by walking a batter, so the net points earned is K – BB. Pitchers who excel at this tend to be high K guys who also prevent runners from reaching base and scoring runs. To ensure this, WHIP was referenced to confirm pitchers identified are pros at minimizing base runners.
You may question why I chose K% – BB% rather than the more conventional K/BB ratio. I selected the former because batters faced (innings pitched) is a factor, whereas K/BB is a gross total that doesn’t consider opportunity. The two metrics are similar but not identical, and I prefer using the difference between the rates because innings can be difficult to predict, especially for the shortened 2020 season. I decided to ignore pitchers whose main skill is pitching deep into games because, while consistent options, they lack upside. This is a skill that can be developed over time and is more likely to be random in a small sample of games such as this season when monitoring innings pitched is not nearly as important as a conventional year.
Regularly Whiffing Batters
The top pitchers in baseball sit atop the chart for K% – BB% as you would expect and you don’t need me to tell you these aces are skilled. Instead, we’ll focus on the best values and some other highly ranked you might be surprised to see make an appearance.
Lucas Giolito SP, CHW
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 32.3 | 8.1 | 1.06 | 46 | 23 |
Previously failing to live up to his hype as a highly touted prospect, Giolito finally broke out in 2019 and the stats back it up. Giolito’s K% and BB% differential of 24.2 was eighth best among starters and, after finishing as Pitcher 16 last year based on points per game (ppg), he is coming off the board as pitcher 16 again despite the potential for further development and higher projected finish.
Brandon Woodruff SP, Mil
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 29 | 6.1 | 1.14 | 58 | 27 |
Another 2019 breakout pitcher, Woodruff appears to have the stuff to stick among fantasy’s top starters. His K% – BB% was 16th best and a finish as pitcher 22 based on ppg last season indicates he’s on the rise. The only downside to 2020 is we (probably) won’t see Woodruff hit because of the universal DH.
Robbie Ray SP, Ari
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 31.5 | 11.2 | 1.34 | 131 | 108 |
Ray has been one of the top pitchers in K and BB rate since his breakout in 2017 and last season was no exception, coupling a top 10 K% with the second worst BB% among all 146 starters with 70 IP. The BB% leads to an above average WHIP but Ray’s 26th best differential proves the Ks make up for it. Currently going as pitcher 44, last season’s finish as pitcher 33 shows Ray has more to offer than his ADP predicts.
Ryan Yarbrough SP, TB
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 20.8 | 3.5 | 1 | 205 | 168 |
Yarbrough is an afterthought in drafts, going after pick 200, but he clearly has value, evidenced by last year’s finish as pitcher 52 based on ppg. Despite sporting a below average K%, his K% and BB% differential of 17.2 puts him in the upper third thanks to his minuscule BB rate that was 3rd best among all starters. In addition, a top 10 WHIP among starters proves Yarbrough has the stuff to warrant a selection a few rounds sooner than where he is going.
Taylor Rogers RP, Min
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 32.4 | 4 | 1 | 100 | 84 |
In 2019 Rogers came on strong after being installed as the regular closer in June to finish as pitcher 51 based on totals. A top five BB rate among relievers helped Rogers achieve the 11th best K% – BB% and a secure hold on a powerful Twins team in a weaker AL central makes Rogers an appealing selection in round 9 or 10.
Giovanny Gallegos RP, Stl
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 33.3 | 5.7 | 0.81 | 172 | 163 |
Gallegos was borderline rosterable in 2019 as the Cardinals set up man but impressed enough in the role to be the current favorite for the 2020 closer job. His most impressive stat was easily WHIP, which was the second lowest among all relievers behind only Josh Hader, and the difference between his K and BB rates was top 15. If Gallegos is the Cardinals closer this season, he is easily worth at least a 16th round pick.
Bringing up the Rear
As you would expect, most of the top starting options excel at this stat so the names you’ll find below are mid-tier/back end options and are probably best passed over in favor of pitchers with more upside.
Masahiro Tanaka SP, NYY
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 19.8 | 5.2 | 1.23 | 162 | 165 |
Tanaka’s K% was a career low in 2019 and, considering his consistent role, a rebound is unlikely. His BB rate has always been low, but still led to a below average K% – BB% and a near league average WHIP. Tanaka will give you innings, but I’d much prefer other options in the late teen rounds.
Marco Gonzales SP, Sea
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 17 | 6.5 | 1.31 | 220 | 228 |
Gonzales’ 2019 stats were volume driven as he tied for the MLB lead in games started and finished 12th in innings, however a below average WHIP and bottom 30 (out if 146) K% and BB% differential lies beneath. The culprit is a bottom 20 K% which should rear its head in a shortened season when volume is easier to attain.
Dallas Keuchel SP, CHW
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 18.7 | 8 | 1.37 | 235 | 249 |
Keuchel has never had a huge K% – BB% and a discouraging trend has seen his rate decrease each of the past 4 seasons, culminating in 2019’s bottom fourth finish. Similarly, both his WHIP and ERA have also risen over the past 3 seasons and, while pitching in the weaker AL Central should help mitigate this, more favorable options exist late in drafts. Keuchel is best left on waivers.
Archie Bradley RP, Ari
| K% | BB% | WHIP | ADP | Projected |
| 27.4 | 11.4 | 1.44 | 174 | 176 |
Once a promising SP prospect, Bradley found his ideal role after moving to the bullpen in 2017, although it has been downhill from there. His K% and BB% differential has gone down each of the past 2 seasons and his WHIP has gone up, both the result of a BB rate that rose to an alarming 11.4% in 2019. Currently going as reliever 18 despite last season’s K% – BB% among the bottom half of all relievers, sturdier options exist during the late teen rounds.
