At 9 a.m. ET on November 2nd, I was wiping sleep from my eyes in California and preparing to board a plane and return to Texas. Meanwhile, scores of major league baseball players were being emancipated that very hour. All eligible players (i.e. those with six-plus years of service time) were suddenly free agents.
Emancipation day for baseball free agents does not mean they can immediately sign with a new team. They have to wait at least five days before that can happen. The first five days of the offseason are an exclusive negotiating period in which the player can only talk money in the form of a new contract with his previous team.
Most contract option decisions were due on Monday. The rules state that the vast majority have to be made within five days of the end of the World Series. Club options are controlled by the team, player options and opt-outs are controlled by the player, and mutual options are kind of pointless. That’s just a way to move money to next year’s payroll.
Certainly, this is an exciting and anxious time for ballplayers, but what does this have to do with the fantasy baseball manager? Let me connect the dots for you. Many of the top free agents are getting ready to change addresses, with their fantasy value possibly increasing or decreasing. Your fantasy drafts may be months away, but this is important intel.
Clayton Kershaw would have made the list, with the likely destination staying with the Dodgers. However, shoulder surgery is going to cost him most, if not all of 2024. Returning to the Dodgers is still on the table, but the Rangers have shown they’ll take a chance on older, injured starters like Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, so they can’t be ruled out.
At the top of the list of those on the move is Shohei Ohtani. At the risk of repeating myself from a column posted a month ago, Ohtani as an extraterresterial life form. Ohtani the hitter batted .302, hit 44 home runs, scored 102 runs, drove in 95 and stolen 20 bases in 2023. Ohtaini the pitcher had 10 wins, 167 strikeouts, a 3.20 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
Ohtani will not pitch next year after undergoing elbow surgery to correct a torn ulnar collateral ligament, but he’s going to be in someone’s lineup as a DH come Opening Day. Although he won’t return to the mound until 2025 at the earliest, he is sure to receive a record-breaking payday soon. My prediction is a crosstown move to the Dodgers.
After Ohtani, there are a number of free agents that are likely to move – and move the needle – in the balance of power in major league baseball. Some free agents will have more impact in the real game then the fantasy game, but starting pitching is critical to both. Here are 10 starting pitchers I would keep a close eye on as contracts are announced in the coming days.
YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO, RHP, NIPPON PROFESSIONAL LEAGUE
You can pray your favorite team will sign this player. Yamamoto, 25, is a five-time All-Star, a three-time ERA champion, and a two-time Triple Crown champion in the NPB. Last year, he won the Pacific League’s equivalents of the MVP and Cy Young Awards. He is know for a high-grade command over a nice arsenal of pitches. I predict he’ll sign with the Mets.
AARON NOLA, RHP, PHILADELPHIA
Nola, 31, had a subpar regular season but was solid in the playoffs. While his 4.46 ERA in 2023 might give some pause, he has a track record of dependability and still recorded 200-plus strikeouts for the fifth consecutive season. He was top 10 in the National League in WHIP and strikeouts. If he doesn’t extend with the Phillies, I think he’ll land in Arizona.
BLAKE SNELL, LHP, SAN DIEGO
The likely NL Cy Young Award Winner, Snell, 31, should enjoy a hefty payday soon. Snell’s career ERA of 3.20 is the lowest on the open market except for Clayton Kershaw. He led the majors in 2023 with a 2.25 ERA but didn’t crack the top 20 with a 1.19 WHIP. He was fourth in strikeouts and tied for ninth in wins. I predict he will also sign with the Mets.
SONNY GRAY, RHP, MINNESOTA
Gray is entering free agency for the first time, coming off arguably his best season. At 34, he probably won’t land a long-term deal, but someone will pay him well for his 2.79 ERA (third best) and 1.15 WHIP (15th best). At worst, he’ll be a solid mid-tier starter for some contender. If he doesn’t extend with the Twins, I think Gray will land in St. Louis.
JORDAN MONTGOMERY, LHP, TEXAS
After playing an important role as the Rangers marched through the postseason, Montgomery, 31, is another solid mid-tier starter. The arrow has been pointing up for Montgomery since he was dealt by the Yankees at the trade deadline in 2022. Since that move, the left-hander has posted a 3.17 ERA across 252.1 innings. I predict Montgomery will stay in Texas.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ, LHP, DETROIT
Fantasy managers know Rodriguez’s value will increase with a likely move to a contender. Rodriguez, 30, is expected to opt out of the remaining three-year deal with the Tigers after logging a 3.30 ERA – his lowest since 2019. He also had a 1.153 WHIP, the lowest of his career. The downside is that he doesn’t miss bats. I predict he will sign with the Phillies.
SHOTA IMANAGA, LHP, JAOAB CENTRAL LEAGUE
Imanaga has pitched for Yokohama since 2016. The 30-year-old southpaw isn’t dominant with a 93-mph fastball, but he has impeccable control. He posted a 2.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 174 strikeouts to only 24 walks in 148 innings last season.
SETH LUGO, RHP, SAN DIEGO
Lugo, 34, was primarily used in relief up until this season when the Padres decided to stretch him out. He proved himself capable of being another reliable mid-roation arm, logging a 3.57 ERA across 26 starts and 146.1 innings. This late bloomer is a sleeper in the free agent market, and should find a home somewhere on a respectable 2-year or 3-year deal.
LUCAS GIOLITO, RHP, CLEVELAND
While pitchers like Gray, Montgomery and Rodriguez saw their stock price rising in 2023, Giolito’s value was plummenting. After leaving Chicago, Giolito, 29, was bad with the Angels and even worse with the Guardians. Everyone knows about the Dodgers’ success with starting pitcher reclamation projects, so it seems like a match made in heaven. I’m a believer.
MICHAEL WACHA, RHP, SAN DIEGO
Just a mere ten years ago, I watched Wacha pitch in the World Series for the Cardinals, and no one’s future was brighter. Then came the injuries and the rising ERA until the 32-year-old rediscovered himself in Boston in 2022. His success carried over to San Diego. He only signed a one-year deal, but the Padres have the option of keeping him. We’ll have to see.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
