As COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc on the NHL/the world, I’ve found myself playing a lot more hockey DFS, while my season-long rosters remain decimated with players in health and safety protocols. Numerous NHL teams have had to dig deep into their farm systems to find depth, which has resulted in a few exciting prospects get an earlier-than-anticipated chance in the league, and some veterans receiving an unexpected last chance. The unpredictability of COVID-19 related roster moves makes it hard to find a lot of value in these players in season-long or dynasty formats. However, it can create some tremendous short-term value in DFS formats.
Throughout the season, I’ve emphasized finding value based on a player’s usage and line assignment. This is even more important in DFS, as top-priced players can be balanced by more affordable line mates. Ideally, you want a DFS lineup to consist of two or three lineup stacks, meaning players that play on the same line or power play unit. Lines matter more than individual players, as you want to find situations where you can maximize scoring with both goals and assists. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have exemplified this for years. However, as the omicron variant continues to spread and more players are forced to miss time, that creates an opening in the lineup for players who would otherwise never get a chance to play significant minutes. We saw an example of this back on January 6th, when the LA Kings called up Martin Frk from their taxi squad and immediately put him on their top line alongside Anze Kopitar. Frk responded by scoring a goal on six shots, while playing almost 19 minutes and over five minutes on the power-play, while being priced at the minimum on DraftKings. At 28 years old and playing with his third team, Frk isn’t the type of player that would typically generate a ton of excitement when called up. He’s not an incredibly dynamic offensive player, but he does possess a strong shot and a willingness to play a physical game. While you can’t rely on consistent scoring from a player like Frk, his skillset can be maximized by playing alongside a playmaker like Kopitar.
Frk also exemplifies the upheaval facing NHL rosters, as he found himself in COVID-19 protocol within a week of his promotion. Even if there’s still an open roster spot when he returns, it’s improbable that he finds himself in a situation where he’ll receive top-six minutes and power-play time. While Frk won’t provide the same value moving forward, the current COVID-19 situation means you can find a similarly valued player on most slates. With the Blackhawks facing an outbreak amongst their defenders, they called up a fairly “meh” prospect in Jakub Galvas to fill in on the blueline. Galvas may eventually become a solid NHL defenseman, but he’s not expected to produce significant offensive numbers. Despite this, he played nearly seven minutes on the power play in his NHL debut. Frankly, it’s possible for anyone to put up scoring stats playing on the man advantage with the likes of Patrick Kane and Alex Debrincat. Therefore, you could afford to pay up for one (or both) of these consistent offensive players, while offsetting cost with lower-rostered Galvas, who can still find himself with some shots on goal, or possibly an assist. We saw a pair of journeyman defenseman, Brad Hunt and Ben Hutton, go on a similar streaks while receiving power-play time on a depleted Vancouver and Vegas teams. Neither of these players are particularly exciting long-term, but it’s often the boring option that will win you money in DFS.
Essentially, the point is that in DFS, opportunity often matters more than ability, and can cost significantly less. If a team finds themselves shorthanded, identify a line that can still hold value, particularly against an opponent that lets up goals. Another approach I’ve taken is to target lower lines on good teams, when playing against bad teams. These games are more likely to end in lopsided scores, meaning that the top lines will play less later in the game, giving an opportunity for cheaper and low-rostered players to generate stats with a boost in ice time. An example of this would be Colorado’s Nicolas Aube-Kubel, a third-liner who scored two goals on January 10th, against a struggling Seattle Kraken team. While there’s clearly single-game value for a player like Aube-Kubel, he also brings up an interesting scenario for season-long leagues or other longer-term formats. He played 16 shifts in his performance against Seattle, and was rewarded the following night with 21 shifts, where he posted another goal and an assist. Again, Aube-Kubel has limited offensive upside, but he’s a versatile forward who plays a solid two-way game that NHL coaches value and found himself elevated in an incredibly talented Colorado lineup. If he continues to produce, his price will certainly rise in DFS, but he could still be worth a flier on season-long teams that have seen their lineups depleted by COVID-19 and/or injury. Nazem Kadri was able to turn a similar opportunity with the Aves into an all-star caliber season. While Kadri is certainly more talented than Aube-Kubel, both represent players who have turned opportunity into production, whether it be for a week or three months.
Every season we see multiple players put up strong second halves. Getting an early jump on these players can be the difference between making a run for a fantasy championship or missing the playoffs. This should be exacerbated by the evolving COVID-19 situation. While a star player missing a few games could create a chance for DFS value, certain players, depending on team and skill level, can use this opportunity to showcase their ability to help a team in the long term. We’re at the point in the season where you may need to take some risks, and ride hot-streaks for as long as possible. Hot streaks rarely come out of nowhere – if a player stops producing, identity the next situation for a player to take advantage of. Remember, whatever format you’re playing, opportunity can matter more than ability.
