Recency bias is a real thing in fantasy baseball. German Marquez, who is 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and an 11.5 K/9 in 12 starts since the All-Star break, is surely an emerging ace. It doesn’t matter that he pitched to a 4.81 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 19 starts prior to the All-Star break. What about Michael Conforto? Considering that he sports a .270/.348/.540 slash line with 16 homers and 47 RBIs through 226 second-half at-bats this season, he’s a fine target somewhere in the top-100 in drafts next spring. But remember when the Mets were seriously considering sending Conforto to the minors? Yes, that was this season.
While the market values of the second-half stars get inflated heading into the following season, the guys who put up strong numbers in the first half before fading down the stretch offer profit potential, as many owners may have forgotten just how productive they were earlier in the year. So, let’s take a look at a few players who fit this description, because the season is long and you might as well use that fact to your advantage.
Jed Lowrie – We all sort of knew the regression was coming, right? Lowrie, who has been a decent but far from special fantasy asset throughout much of his career, entered July batting .291 with 14 homers and 56 RBIs. Since then, he’s tallied just seven home runs and 38 RBIs while seeing his batting average drop by more than 20 points, and he’s hitting just .197 with no homers in September. Even after this sluggish finish, however, the veteran infielder has put together by far the best season of his career, and he was an underrated mixed-league contributor last year, when he scored 86 runs. Although paying for a 2018 repeat would be a mistake, don’t be afraid to draft him in 2019 if he’s available at enough of a discount thanks to his subpar second half.
Odubel Herrera – I was unable to land Herrera in any draft this season despite viewing him as underrated, and this sort of bothered me. It bothered me even more after the 26-year-old outfielder posted a solid .286 batting average with 14 homers and 46 RBIs through the end of June. Herrera was running a lot less than I expected but the increased power made up for it. Well, it’s been all downhill in the three months since, as he’s managed to hit only eight homers while driving in a mere 22 runs. A career .280 hitter, Herrera enters the second-to-last Saturday of the season batting only .255. As you can guess, it no longer bothers me that I’m not a Herrera owner. But that doesn’t mean I won’t be interested in being a Herrera owner in 2019 if I can draft him outside the top-50 outfielders.
Shin-Soo Choo – There’s nothing exciting about Choo, especially if your league doesn’t use OBP as a category. But there was a time this year, at the All-Star break to be exact, when his fantasy owners were very excited. And they had reason to be excited, as the veteran outfielder boasted a .293 average with 18 homers, 43 RBIs and 54 runs scored. In hindsight, the All-Star break was a perfect time to trade him, as his second-half stat line (.225 AVG, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 28 R) leaves a lot to be desired. But Choo has remained healthy this season, and despite carrying the “health-risk” label, only one of his last four seasons have been marred by injuries. At 36, he’s getting a little long in the tooth, but he remains a reliable source of counting stats and is of course significantly more valuable in OBP leagues (career .379 OBP).
Sean Newcomb – After a so-so April, Newcomb was dominant in May and June, registering a combined 2.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 11 starts, stating his case as a potential top-30 fantasy SP for 2019. But the Braves southpaw has struggled mightily over the last three months, seeing his ERA rise from 2.71 to 4.04. Frustrating, I know, but before you jump off the Newcomb bandwagon, keep in mind that he’s only 25 and has already thrown close to 60 more innings at the big league level than he did last season, so fatigue could be partly to blame. This is one of those situations where a poor second half has turned a midseason sell-high guy into a potential value pick for next year.
Carlos Martinez – What a strange season for Martinez, who entered the year as a borderline fantasy ace but is ending it as the Cardinals closer. He’s actually pitched very well since moving to the bullpen following his most recent return from the DL in late-August, allowing only three runs in 13 1/3 innings while converting all four of his save chances. Oh, and he picked up a win on Saturday for good measure. But let’s be real here. You didn’t spend an early-round pick on Martinez for saves and the occasional win. You were banking on 15-plus wins, around 200 strikeouts and strong ratios. At least that’s what I was expecting when I shelled out 26 bucks for his services at the Tout Wars Mixed Auction table back in March. Not one of my better auction purchases, to put it mildly.
But that’s not the point. The point is that amidst all of the negativity surrounding Martinez’s 2018 campaign, it’s easy to forget that in early-May, right before his first trip to the DL, his ERA was 1.62 and his WHIP was 1.08. Those were good times. Martinez, who will return to the starting rotation next spring, could be in store for some more good times in 2019. The best part is that you won’t need to pay borderline ace price to draft him.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
