As a longtime contributor to Peter Kreutzer’s Fantasy Baseball Guide Professional Edition season preview magazine, I had always considered participating in the magazine’s mid-November mock draft to be the official start of my draft prep season. But with the magazine taking a one-year hiatus, the routine has been disrupted this time around. I needed to seek out a new beginning, and it came last week in the form of a mock draft invite from Scott White of CBS Sportsline. The format was 12-team roto, standard 5×5, 23-rounder. I grabbed a spot.
As for preparation, I didn’t do much aside from printing out ESPN top-300 rankings just to have the names in front of me. Being that the results of this mock draft would not be circulated in newsstands across the country, drafting on the fly was a more comfortable plan than it would have been in past years. And besides, I had enough confidence in my knowledge of the player pool that things would work out just fine. This would be more of a learning exercise than a rehearsal for a real draft.
OK, so what were my main takeaways from mock draft #1 of 2021? Glad you asked.
The Price of an Ace
In this draft, let’s just say the price was steep. Picking out of the #3 slot, I planned to take my first SP in the third round, cautiously optimistic that I could land either Yu Darvish, Luis Castillo or Jack Flaherty. So much for that plan. Castillo went off the board in the middle of the second round (#16 overall) while Flaherty was taken 24th and Darvish was selected with the pick right before my turn in round 3. So I settled for Clayton Kershaw, which isn’t a bad thing. But the moral of the story is that if you want a true ace, even a borderline true ace, be prepared to spend a top-30 pick.
Whether or not it’s a wise move to spend a top-30 pick on a starting pitcher is certainly debatable. On one hand, the SP pool thins out fast, so passing on an ace might place you at a clear disadvantage. On the other hand, sometimes it’s better to zig while everyone else zags. Maybe building a dominant offense while using the middle rounds to address starting pitching is the way to go, especially coming off a shortened season where Lance Lynn’s 84 innings pitched led the majors. Will teams be extra careful not to overwork their starters? Declining starting pitcher innings were already a trend prior to 2020, and we should expect that to continue in 2021. Draft day approach to starting pitching could be the most important decision fantasy owners will need to make this spring.
Where Did All the Closers Go?
Aside from a handful of options, there really isn’t such a thing as a “safe” closer this year. My saves strategy has always been to draft one elite stopper followed by a mid-tier closer with job security and a proven setup man pitching in front of a shaky closer. Good luck with that in 2021. In the CBS mock, Liam Hendriks was selected in the middle of the 5th round (#53 overall) followed by Josh Hader towards the back end of the 6th (#68 overall). Kirby Yates was the last pick of the 8th round while Raisel Iglesias, Edwin Diaz and Aroldis Chapman were taken in the late-9th and early-10th. Ryan Pressly is an acceptable #1 closer assuming he holds onto the job and maybe Kenley Jansen will prove the skeptics wrong, but then the pickings get slim. The category of mid-tier closer with job security doesn’t really exist this year. I was happy with my trio of Pressly (10th round), Taylor Rogers (13th) and Hector Neris (20th), but can I say with complete confidence that any of these relievers will be closing games in August?
The Middle Infield Plan
Shortstop is deep this year. In fact, the shortstop position has been deep for several years now, but nothing like this year. The fact that you can wait until the double-digit rounds in a 15-team mixed league and still have a chance to draft Didi Gregorius, Jorge Polanco or even Amed Rosario is pretty cool. Second base is a different story. Jake Cronenworth showed plenty of promise last season, but with a mere 192 big-league plate appearances to his record, who knows what to expect in 2021. Well, Cronenworth was my 12th round selection, and he was only the 9th second baseman to be drafted, which goes to show the lack of appealing options at the keystone. This is no knock on Cronenworth, who surely carries breakout potential, but when I draft for real, I won’t wait too long to address second base.
Speed Needs
Steamer projects that only five players will swipe at least 25 bags in 2021 while 36 will reach the 15-steal plateau. This is good to know, as my longstanding speed policy has been to spread out the steals as opposed to being reliant on one player to provide most of your stolen bases. Three of the five projected 25+ SB players are first-rounders (Acuna, Tatis, Turner), so I might end up with one of those guys anyway, but I certainly won’t be spending a second-round pick on Adalberto Mondesi (NFBC ADP: 19). Mondesi did fall to #39 overall in the CBS mock, but I think that will turn out to be an outlier. Mookie Betts and Luis Robert are the two main SB sources on my mock draft squad, but I didn’t forget about speed after taking Robert in the 4th, drafting Jorge Polanco in the 17th, Lorenzo Cain in the 18th and Manuel Margot in the 19th. If those three players can give me a combined 40-45 steals, I’ll be in good shape. So, don’t freak out if you head into the middle rounds a little behind the pack in stolen bases. There will be opportunities to gain ground.
Speaking of gaining ground, I’m a bit behind in draft prep. Time to start thinking about mock draft #2.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
