“Bodies,” the Drowning Pool song, is playing in the background as I write this column. Pitchers are dropping like flies. Injuries are a normal part of baseball, but not like this. First came the news Thursday that Eury Perez would need Tommy John surgery. Things got worse two days later with the report that Spencer Strider, the top pitch in reality and fantasy baseball, probably would follow suit. Then, hours later, Shane Bieber.
Et tu, Brute? In the fall, I drafted Strider midway through the first round of my first and only draft and hold. He was too good to make it out of the first round in any draft. Some managers took Strider No. 1 overall, and who could blame them after Strider struck out 281 batters last year? Kevin Gausman, the second-best bat-misser in 2023, fanned 237. Strider was also the only pitcher to win 20 games a year ago.
It may not compare with the Kennedy assassination, but I remember where I was when word came Friday that Strider had left his start complaining of elbow soreness. I was standing in the kitchen, checking on my fantasy teams, while my wife was discussing the details of our upcoming vacation to California. My wife hates it when I am distracted during a conversation, and the ominous Strider news was more than distracting.
I feared the worst on Friday night, and those fears were confirmed the next day by way of MRI. Stider had damage to his UCL, and while Tommy John surgery hasn’t been prescribed yet, his season is likely over. Strider, Perez, Bieber lost for the season. Devin Williams, the No. 1 relief pitcher, out for half the season with two stress fractures in his back. There’s Paul Sewald, another elite reliever, who’s out until May (best case).
Remember Gerrit Cole, the No. 2 fantasy starting pitcher, who landed on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury? Or, how about Kodai Senga, who’s out indefinitely with a shoulder injury? Speaking of shoulder injuries, who can forget Justin Verlander? I can’t forget any of these three because I have them on at least one of my teams. In full disclosure, I admit that I drafted this trio at a discount because their injuries were reported earlier.
There was more bad news coming off the weekend with another Astros pitcher, Framber Valdez, scratched ahead of his Monday start after experiencing soreness in his elbow. Astros manager Joe Espada downplayed the team’s level of concern. Fantasy managers have heard that one before. Valdez was sent back to Houston to be evaluated by team doctors, and everyone will be holding their breath until the results are announced later this week.
Of course, there are more. Missing but not forgotten are Justin Steele (hamstring), Nick Pivetta (elbow), Gavin Williams (elbow), Bryan Woo (elbow), Kyle Bradish (elbow), Eduardo Rodriguez (shoulder), Emmet Sheehan (forearm), Shane Baz (elbow), Taj Bradley (pectoral), John Means (forearm), Lucas Giolito (elbow), Alek Manoah (shoulder),Taijuan Walker (shoulder), Jameson Taillon (back) and Jose Urquidy (forearm).
If you squint, you can see a small silver lining in this dark cloud cover. Sonny Gray was activated by the Cardinals on Tuesday and made his first start of 2024. It’s unlikely that you’ll find Gray on your waiver wire. His rostership is 85% at ESPN and 93% at Yahoo, but you should take a peek. Nick Lodolo (calf) is expected to make his season debut on Saturday. He is available in more than half of the fantasy leagues.
While enraged baseball fans and fantasy managers shake their fists at clouds, I have to wonder what is behind this rash of injuries. My best guess is that major league pitchers are just trying to do too much with their pitches. Curves and sweepers are hard on elbow, arms and shoulders, but then there’s the an increasing need for speed. Consider that the more a pitcher throws near his maximum velocity, the more stress he puts on his elbow.
We can debate the causes of this rash of pitching injuries – spikes in velocity and spin rate, the pitch clock, or climate change – but keep in mind this is happening to all of us. There is plenty of time to save your team by working the waive wire. You can be unlucky or wrong a lot in this game and still do well. You just need be a little bit better than the other managers in your league. So, let’s take a look at some pitchers that might rescue your season.
Your first stop in the search for help might be Boston. Andrew Bailey becoming the pitching coach of the Red Sox during the offseason might not have been front-page news, but he looked like a genuine wizard after Nick Pivetta’s first start. Kutter Crawford has also looked like a different pitcher under Bailey’s tutelage. You may not find either of them on your waiver wire, but there’s another name to consider.
TANNER HOUCK, SP, BOSTON
Entering the season, managers tempered expectations after Houck spent the past three seasons dealing with injuries or being ineffective enough to be sent back to Triple-A. But Houck emerged from a spring competition between four pitchers to claim a spot in the rotation and has been balling. In two starts, across 12.2 innings, he’s 2-0, with 17 strikeouts, a 0.00 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. His rosterership is on the rise, so check your waiver wire.
FRANKIE MONTAS, SP, CINCINNATI
While his injury history has been checkered, he has been a very productive starter when fully healthy and the Reds are committed to him as part of their rotation. Montas was the No. 14 starting pitcher in fantasy points as recently as 2021, and so far this year, so good. The right-hander is 2-0 through two starts, with an ERA of 0.77 and WHIP of 1.03. Montas brings a considerable amount of upside, especially in the strikeout department.
SEAN MANAEA, SP, NEW YORK METS
Manaea took a step forward in San Francisco last year, tying a full-season career-best strikeout rate at 25.7 percent. That mark was close to a 10.0 K/9 rate. Over 37 appearances, ten starts, he posted a 4.44 ERA, won seven games and actually added a save in 2023. He has looked even better in his two starts with the Mets, surrendering just one run. Better yet, he has struck out 14 batters across 11 innings, while pitching to an 0.82 ERA.
SPENCER TURNBULL, SP, PHILADELPHIA
I picked up Turnbull on Sunday night for my TGFBI team ahead of a two-start week. He pitched his second scoreless gem Monday night, allowing just three baserunners and piling up six strikeouts over six shutout innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals. Turnbull, who missed most of the last two seasons, has seen his fastball velocity return to pre-surgery levels and the addition of a new sweeper has given him another legitimate weapon.
CODY BRADFORD, SP, TEXAS
Bradford was the most added pitcher in the forty Main Event leagues on Sunday. Never turning heads in the minor leagues, or in eight starts with Texas last year, he has won two games and struck out 10 batters across 12.2 innings. The problem is that Michael Loren is expected to join the rotation this week, which means Bradford likely heads to the minor or the bullpen after this start Wednesday. But he’s worth streaming against Oakland.
MICHAEL LORENZEN, SP, TEXAS
After you stream Bradford on Wednesday, why not pick up Lorenzen, who signed a one-year deal with the Rangers before the season? He started the season on the IL with a neck strain, but the purpose of that stint was to build up his pitch count. Though he’s far from a consistent fantasy performer, Lorenzen is available even in deep leagues and has had his moments – most notably his no-hitter in his second start with the Phillies last August.
PAUL BLACKBURN, SP, OAKLAND
Am I actually recommending an Oakland pitcher? Consider that Blackburn hasn’t allowed an earned run across 13 innings this season and even earned a win last Saturday in Detroit. He’s also only walked one batter. You may not hold on to Blackburn for a long time, but he gets the Nationals at home on Friday in a good matchup. Of course, if he pitches another six or seven shutout innings, you might want to hold on to him and play matchups.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
