The ‘Last Year’s Bums’ concept has served me well over the years. Recency bias sometimes weighs recent performance disproportionately, especially if we know of certain circumstances that contributed to the decline that are no longer in play. Today we’ll look at ten bums from yesteryear and examine whether they might return to previous levels, or whether we should stay away.
Miguel Cabrera(94) – As a former Detroit Tigers season ticket holder, I’ve seen a lot of the future Hall of Famer over the years. Last year I saw a mere shell of the once great hitter. This spring, I’ve seen nothing from Lakeland Florida that indicates that has changed. I’ve seen slow swings not using his legs and weak contact. Perhaps he’s just easing into spring and he’ll turn it up once the season starts, but I’m not buying. On the other hand, Victor Martinez(517) is driving the ball and making hard contact. V-Mart isn’t going to return to the form that made him the MVP runner up in 2014, but a repeat of 2016 is possible. A .270+ BA and 25 bombs is not a bad return for someone not being drafted in 30 round leagues. Keep in mind the counting numbers will be down since the Tiger lineup is barren.
Jason Kipnis(254) has six homers this spring, which means absolutely nothing, other than Kipnis is healthy, and that means a lot. Hitting second in a potent Indians lineup is a good place to be.
Jonathan Villar(171) provided first round production just two years ago. Unfortunately this keystone Brewer became something of an impatient hacker in 2017. The strikeout rate rose, and the BB/K ratio dropped 50%. That sent Villar’s OBP into a tailspin, dropping from .369 in 2016 down to just .293 last year. He studied film of Joey Votto and his disciplined approach over the winter. In the first couple starts I could see the fruit, with patient ABs, only swinging in the strike zone, and driving the ball. However that approach has seemed to break down as camp wore on. He started swinging at bad pitches out of the zone early in counts. That’s not going to cut it. Villar has great upside at his current price, but I’d like to see an improved approach at the plate before investing. Craig Counsel has penciled him towards the bottom of lineups of late, and obviously he won’t be stealing as much down there, and not at all if he’s not on base.
Leonys Martin(418) saw his production at the plate fall into the abyss a year ago. That means he’s virtually free in this year’s drafts. That’s good because it very well may turn out the former Mariner’s breakout in 2016 was a mirage. He should end up leading off for the punchless Detroit Tigers, who won’t score many runs, which means they’ll have to run more often to squeeze out a few. Worth a reserve round dart if you are desperate for speed.
David Price(110) is one of the riskier arms on this year’s Last Year’s Bums list. Even with the huge risk, he only comes at a modest discount(round seven instead of round three). Pitching runs are common in the Main Event. If you get shut out early, this Red Sox southpaw is one possible plan B.
Noah Syndergaard(31) – if you told me I would get 30 starts from Thor, I would say to draft him in every league given his current ADP. Therein lies the rub. If you feel confident in the health of this flamethrower, or any Mets starter, then you haven’t been paying attention.
Aaron Sanchez(204) had a special procedure last year to remove part of a nail in order to ‘fix’ his blister issue. That move turned out to be water on a grease fire. He ended up with more blisters, and worse ones at that. Now healthy, he is a prime bounce back candidate. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, and his 3.60 FIP in 2016 indicates that he wasn’t as good as his 3.00 ERA would seem to indicate, but that still leaves room for profit at the current price.
Robinson Cano(88) has been consistently drafted between rounds one and three over the last four years. The former Yankee was going in the seventh, but has recently moved up into the late sixth round. He profiles as a classic Last Year’s Bum bounce back candidate, but I’m not going to invest. Cano had leg ailments plague him last year, including a hamstring that bothered him over the final two months of the season. I saw him leave a recent spring training matchup with hamstring tightness. I don’t know if he simply doesn’t stretch out thoroughly and properly, or if a chronic hamstring issue is setting in. Either case is a red flag for me.
Hanley Ramirez(333) is supposedly healthy after undergoing shoulder surgery in the off-season. Disappointing numbers from last year, and Utility only position eligibility to start the season have deflated the aging slugger’s price. Yes, Mitch Moreland’s presence and a large contract bonus if the former Marlin logs enough AB’s could throw a wrench in playing time, but with an ADP this late, there’s little risk if he doesn’t bounce back, and he should gain 1B eligibility soon with JD Martinez clogging up the Red Sox DH spot most days.
Follow Greg @Liquidhippo.
