This past Thursday my home league decided to kick-off the 2020 MLB season by holding our draft on opening night, and below you’ll find pick by pick analysis of my selections. I realize most leagues have already conducted their drafts, but during this unprecedented season players’ value will have increased variance compared to a traditional campaign and getting a gauge on almost a weekly basis is paramount for transactions. A few notes before we delve into analysis: focus on ADP more than round because this is an 8 team league, the format is ESPN custom but is not far from standard scoring and every owner in the league is an educated fan who was present (virtually) for the draft.
Mookie Betts, Round 1 Pick 3
I had planned for Yelich and Trout being the first 2 picks and was fully prepared to draft Betts here. I also considered Cody Bellinger and Gerrit Cole, but Betts batting eye won me over and he is projected to score the most points of all hitters in my league’s format.
Max Scherzer, Round 2 Pick 14
I anticipated drafting a pitcher here and chose Scherzer over Justin Verlander because Washington has superior pitching to Houston. I passed on Cole in the first round knowing I would still be able to draft one of the clear-cut top 4 starters and preferred the Betts/Scherzer combo to something like Cole/Jose Ramirez.
Anthony Rendon, Round 3 Pick 19
Rendon slid due to his murky status for the opener but I decided to pull the trigger because the Angels elected not to place him on the IL and it looks like he’ll be able to play early this week. Even with Rendon missing the first series, I was content with getting last year’s hitter 3 and this year’s projected hitter 5 here.
Anthony Rizzo, Round 4 Pick 30
More valuable in points leagues, Rizzo’s consistency is easy to overlook and he is projected as hitter 15. I considered Freddie Freeman, but his harrowing bout with COVID-19 concerned me about his ability to sustain production.
Charlie Blackmon, Round 5 Pick 35
This was my last batter selected before making a run on pitching and I thought heavily about taking Xander Bogaerts but opted for Blackmon because I preferred some of the later shortstop options. Blackmon was a top 20 hitter last season and is projected to finish within the top 30 this year.
Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Brandon Woodruff, Rounds 6 – 8 | Picks 46, 51, 62
I was thrilled to get these 3 guys at their respective drafts slots as they are all projected to finish top 20 at the position. Throw in Scherzer and I have an intimidating quartet of talent. Giolito took a giant leap forward in 2019 that was supported by the advanced metrics and getting a top 10 pitcher in round 6 is a huge win. Nola is valuable because of his consistency over the last few seasons and his 2018 shows he has the potential to be a true ace. After a breakout 2019, Woodruff’s performance wasn’t even as good as his advanced numbers, indicating he has the stuff to develop further in 2020. Although their first outings this year were ordinary, all 3 of these selections were slam dunks for me and I hardly considered other options.
Michael Brantley, Marcell Ozuna, Jeff McNeil, Rounds 9 – 11 | Picks 67, 78, 83
Again, I had targeted all 3 of these OF eligible players and drafting them was an easy decision. The trio are projected top 40 hitters and top 15 outfielders, with McNeil being forecasted as hitter 15 overall by ESPN. Brantley is always underrated because he doesn’t hit home runs, but that doesn’t matter in points leagues. Despite a down 2019, the advanced numbers show positive regression is likely for Ozuna and he should receive more playing time with the NL DH. Like Brantley, McNeil is often overlooked because he lacks power but multi-position eligibility and a slot atop the powerful Mets lineup makes him a steal at pick 83.
Lance Lynn, Josh Donaldson, Nick Anderson, Mike Minor, Rounds 12 – 15 | Picks 94, 99, 110, 115
At this point in the draft I’m still looking for value picks and I think I was able to cash in with these selections. Lynn and Minor cannot be expected to replicate their sensational 2019 campaigns, but they can still be solid contributors at the right price. ESPN pegs them as starting pitchers 14 and 15 for my league’s format and that seems a tad rich, but even if they’re only top 30 hurlers I’ll be happy with those selections. I probably reached for Anderson at pick 110, as I made him the fourth closer off the board after Josh Hader, Kirby Yates and Liam Hendriks, but he was my primary reliever target and I wanted to make sure I got him. I was surprised to see Donaldson still on the board around pick 100 and was split between him and DJ LeMahieu but the latter’s cloudy status was the determining factor.
Carlos Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Jorge Polanco, German Marquez, Rounds 16 – 19 | Picks 126, 131, 142, 147
The gap between Santana’s actual and perceived value in points leagues is almost criminal. Last season he was a top 15 hitter and is projected to finish in the top 20 this year yet I was able to get him at pick 126. Escobar and Polanco are two more guys I planned on nabbing late, as the difference between their production and ADP is borderline unfair. Both were top 30 hitters in 2019 and are expected to be among the 40 best finishers this season. Although Marquez had a down 2019, he still finished as a top 50 pitcher and is due for some positive regression in the ERA department. I’ll take that at nearly pick 150.
Brandon Workman, 158
Caleb Smith, 163
Marcus Stroman, 174
Jean Segura, 179
Sandy Alcantara, 190
Ryan Pressly, 195
Tommy Edman, 206
Corey Dickerson, 211
Christian Vazquez, 222
My late round picks are featured above. These are all players I believe have the upside to stick on my roster but would have no problem dropping for a hot name on the waiver wire. I was especially pleased by Alcantara’s performance Friday (6.2 innings, 1 ER) and Pressly’s upside as the potential closer in Houston. I punted catcher as I preferred getting the eighth option at the conclusion of the draft compared to spending an earlier pick on someone marginally better, and Vazquez did finish as catcher 3 in 2019.
Takeaways
The best piece of advice I can impart is to know your league’s format and trust the projections. The default rankings in the draft are not adjusted for custom league’s scoring formats so there are exploitable inconsistencies. During the draft many of the players I selected were far from the top of the board but were projected for more points than the remaining players ranked above them. It’s key not to get overly attached to drafted players as monitoring the waiver wire is more important than normal due to the small sample size that is the 2020 MLB season, yet keeping track of preseason projections for players who struggle initially and pouncing once they begin to turn it around is also smart. Essentially, it comes down to attention to detail and attempting to pick up on every trend. Do that and you should be in for a satisfying year.
