If I was superstitious, I would be worried. Two weeks ago in this space, I noted the tight three-way race for the American League Cy Young Award with the eventual winner likely to come from among the trio of Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer.
That was on August 16. The injury bug then bit two of the three hard.
Sale went on the disabled list that afternoon, retroactive to the 15th, with shoulder inflammation. It was his second such occurrence, with just one dominant start in between.
The Red Sox have a divisional lead, so the primary concern has to be getting the lefty ready for October. While he is reportedly long-tossing again, there is no target date for his activation.
Sale has finished in the top six in the Cy Young Award balloting in each of the last six years but has yet to win. His 1.97 ERA leads the league, so a few strong starts to close the season could really help his case.
Bauer was struck by a line drive during his August 11 start, but it was said at the time to not be serious. However, an MRI detected a small stress fracture in his right fibula.
The 27-year-old right-hander was placed on the 10-day disabled list three days later and is likely to remain out of action until at least the middle of September. The Tribe has the most commanding division lead of any team in baseball so, like the BoSox, their hopes are likely focused on getting Bauer back for the postseason.
Unlike Sale’s long-term success, this is Bauer’s breakout year — in his fifth full-season in the majors. He was named to his first All-Star team in 2018 and has yet to place in the annual Cy Young balloting.
My go-to source for status of the Cy Young Award races is ESPN’s “MLB Cy Young Predictor.” Two weeks ago, the three aforementioned starters were closely bunched on top. By the 18th, A’s closer Blake Treinen had slipped into second.
Now, the reliever is on top. Sale and Bauer, with their points frozen, have slid down to sixth and seventh, respectively. They were passed by two other relievers in Edwin Diaz and Craig Kimbrel, and starter Blake Snell sneaked into fifth.
The following shows the leaders and their Cy Young points (CYP) on the two aforementioned dates.
| Rk | August 18 | CYP | Rk | August 29 | CYP | |
| 1 | Corey Kluber | 147.7 | 1 | Blake Treinen | 151.6 | |
| 2 | Blake Treinen | 147.6 | 2 | Corey Kluber | 151.2 | |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 143.4 | 3 | Edwin Diaz | 149.6 | |
| 4 | Trevor Bauer | 141.1 | 4 | Craig Kimbrel | 147.7 | |
| 5 | Blake Snell | 147.6 | ||||
| 6 | Chris Sale | 143.4 | ||||
| 7 | Trevor Bauer | 141.1 |
As much as I respect the Cy Predictor, I have to question this latest ranking.
While Treinen is undoubtedly having a standout season for a surprise contender and wild card leader in Oakland, I see him having a double handicap, which I doubt the formula takes into account.
Players on West Coast teams just aren’t seen as often by voters, making it inherently tougher for these players to receive fair recognition at times.
Further, relievers only win the Cy Young Award once in a blue moon and to do so need both a dominant season and a dearth of good starters with whom to compete.
One has to go back over a quarter century — to 1982 — to find a relief winner of the AL Cy. That was none other than Dennis Eckersley. The last 35 honorees have been starters.
Despite what the numbers suggest, I believe Kluber remains in the driver’s seat to win the 2018 American League Cy Young Award. It would be his second in succession and third in the last five years.
Sorry, Treinen, but I do not see a Cy in your immediate future.
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 19-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
