With the eighth pick of the third round of the NFBC Main Event, I select … Kenley Jansen, relief pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers. A relief pitcher in the third round, crazy? Nope.
This will be my fifteenth year in the NFBC. I don’t recall ever drafting a relief pitcher in the first six rounds, ever. Yet, this year, I may very well jump on Jansen early. Let me explain.
Jansen’s ADP in the NFBC currently sits at 36, the sixth pick in the third round. He’s been drafted as early as the 11th pick in the second round (26th overall), and as late as the 14th pick in the fourth round (59th overall). Certainly, it’s early and a number of those 89 drafts used for the ADP are 50 round drafts with no pickups, which changes the way you draft. Even so, Jansen won’t make it out of the fourth round, and may very well be taken in the top half of the third round.
People taking Jansen are passing on players like Justin Verlander, Corey Seager, Andrew Benitendi and Jose Abreu, and for the first time in my 15 years in the Main Event, I agree that taking a reliever this high is certainly warranted.
The reasons have less to do with projections for Jansen and the Dodgers as with pitching as the “art” stands today. Over the past three years, Jansen has saved 36, 47 and 41 games respectively. His ERA has improved from 2.41 in 2015, to 1.83 in 2016, and 1.32 in 2017. The reliever’s WHIP over the last three years is less than 0.75.
I actually project a higher ERA (1.85) and a higher WHIP (0.78), but I’ve got the big guy saving 40 games. These numbers would put Jansen slightly behind his average stats over the past three years. Yet, I’m bullish on Jansen.
The saves are great, but Kenley’s hold of the closer job coupled with the strikeouts put Jansen above all the rest and warrants an early selection. To the dismay of fantasy owners, many managers in 2018 seem to be embracing the “I don’t need just one guy to close,” mentality. As we stand today, there’s a strong possibility that the pitcher who earns the first save of the year won’t be the desired closer on the first of May on at least fifteen teams (Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Angels, A’s, Rangers, Brewers, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Giants). Couple that with the likelihood of at least a handful of other closers losing their jobs, and it’s hard to find a safe closer.
Outside of Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Corey Knebel (who himself wasn’t a closer to start the season in 2017), Aroldis Chapman, Roberto Osuna, Edwin Diaz and Cody Allen, there aren’t many even reasonably safe bets. Are you confident that Felipe Rivero will hold the job all season in Pittsburgh? Ken Giles will be the closer for the entire season in Houston? Wade Davis won’t get blown up in the rarefied air in Colorado?
We are all going to be drafting closers in waiting and trolling the waiver wire for anyone that might get the closer job. So, rather than seeking two, why not spend an early pick on a closer who, absent an injury, will have the job all season?
The second reason deals with s innings pitched. Jansen is good for between 65-70 innings. In years past, starting pitchers pitched 200 innings.
- In 2010, 42 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark
- In 2011, 39 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark
- In 2012, 30 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark
- In 2013, 33 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark
- In 2014, 31 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark
- In 2015, 28 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark
- In 2016, 15 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark
- In 2017, 14 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark
Do you see a trend developing?
From 2012 through 2015, my NFBC Main Event teams averaged 1,486 innings. In 2017, using a strategy similar to what I used from 2012 through 2015, my team amassed 1338 innings, a decrease of over 10%. Put another way, Jansen on one of my teams from 2012-2015 would have been responsible for 4.5% of my innings pitched, and his exceptional ERA and WHIP would have a 4.5% effect on those two ratio categories. Last year, with the decreased innings available, Jansen’s exceptional ERA and WHIP would be responsible for just over 5%. In 2018, that number is likely to jump to 5.2%.
Unless you have a calculator handy, you may not understand the difference that this makes. In my 2017 NFBC league, 4.142 was the 8th place ERA and 1.302 was the 8th place WHIP. Substituting Jansen for 67.5 innings on those teams would cause the team’s ERA to fall to 3.99, an increase in four spots in the standings, and it’s WHIP to fall to 1.275, an increase in three places in the standings.
Now figure in his 40 saves and 100 strikeouts, and you’ve got a player than can single handedly move a team up ten points in the overall standings. If I haven’t convinced you yet, figure in the fact that you won’t be chasing the Joquin Benoits, Jason Grillis, Santiago Casillas, Brad Brachs, Koda Glovers, and Pat Nesheks (all who averaged a winning bid of over $100 in FAAB last year) of the world, and Jansen is certainly a man to target.
Best of luck
Buster
