The Milwaukee Braves, just seven years away from moving to Atlanta, won two straight National League pennants in 1957 and 1958, beating the Yankees in seven games in the 1957 World Series and losing to them in seven games in 1958. Their success was mainly due to two Hall of fame hitters (Eddie Mathews and Henry Aaron) and two Hall of Fame pitchers (Warren Spahn and Lew Burdette). Mathews and Aaron batted third and fourth respectively in the lineup and combined for 76 home runs in 1957 and 61 home runs in 1958. Spahn and Burdette combined for 38 wins and 32 complete games in 1957 and 42 wins and 42 complete games in 1958. Burdette almost single handedly won the 1957 World Series, pitching three complete game victories over the Yankees.
But after finishing in second place in 1959 and 1960, then fourth and fifth in 1961 and 1962, the Braves decided it was time for a managerial change and hired Branch Rickey disciple Bobby Bragan as manager in 1963. Bragan had previously managed the Pirates and Indians and gained the reputation as a taskmaster, frequently fining and calling out his players. He also had a famous disdain for statistics. He once said, “all you nerds out there (me included) – don’t always rely on stats for the perfect answer.” He further clarified his position by offering the following hypothetical: “Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable.”
Well Mr. Bragan, don’t look now but the “percentage people” rule baseball. Lineups are constructed, starting pitchers are managed and bullpens are set up not by the manager’s gut but by the sabermetrician’s pen. A lineup used to always have a speedster at the top who had to get on base by any means necessary and could slap a single or beat out a Texas Leaguer at will. He was also able to (believe it or not) steal a base every once in awhile. The second hole hitter was a bat magician who had no reservations at all about taking a pitch to allow the leadoff hitter to steal a base or hitting the ball to the right side of the infield to advance a baserunner. Occasionally he even (believe it or not) bunted a runner over. Above all else, the bat magician avoided striking out because that would not advance the runner. Making contact was all that mattered. The third and fourth place holes were reserved for the best hitters on the team. The third-place hitter was usually the best overall player on the team, the best “pure” hitter, the guy who not only drove runners in but also got on base himself and got into scoring position so the power hitters behind him had someone to drive in. The fourth-place hitter was bestowed the coveted title of “cleanup hitter.” No singles hitters here, please. He was tasked with driving in runners from any base and lead the team in home runs. The fifth and sixth hole hitters were also placed in a position to drive home baserunners before the opposing pitcher could have a respite facing the bottom third of the batting order.
But now sabermetrics has turned this traditional lineup upside down. Now the first two hitters in the lineup are often a team’s best hitters so that they’ll come up to the plate more often in a game. Who cares if the leadoff hitter is your best power hitter? Hitting him leadoff might get him five at bats in a nine-inning game rather than four at bats if he were hitting cleanup. Thus Aaron Judge is leading off for the Yankees. Kyle Schwarber, with his 14 career stolen bases in 8 years, leads off for the Phillies. Number two hole hitter a bat magician who hits the ball to the opposite field and avoids strikeouts at all costs? Rhys Hoskins follows Schwarber in the number two hole for the Phillies. He’s struck out 27% of his plate appearances this year and has hit the ball to the opposite field only 22% of the time. Today Henry Aaron would be the leadoff hitter for the Braves.
Stolen bases have become an endangered species so there’s no longer a need for your leadoff hitter to possess any speed. Attempted steals are not supported by analytical data. Why should the number two hole hitter give himself up by bunting or hitting the ball to the opposite field if he could hit the ball out of the park? The middle of the order may now even be occupied by your table setters if the data prescribes it.
In addition to the changing roles of the different positions in the batting order, a star player or hot hitter might not even get to play in a game today. You used to be able to count on a team’s top hitters and certainly any hot hitters to be in the lineup every day. But now the analytics department determines who plays or who doesn’t rather than the manager’s gut or how hot he is. Even if a hitter goes 4-for-4 with a home run, he may get the next game off if the performance analytics dictate that he must.
The construction of a pitching staff has also undergone a major transformation. Bobby Bragan’s starting pitchers had 56 complete games his first year as manager in 1963 led by the 42-year-old Spahn with 22. The 1971 Baltimore Orioles not only had four 20-game winners in their four-man rotation, but they also pitched a combined 70 complete games! There was a total of 50 complete games pitched last season by all major league teams. The best relief pitchers often pitched two or three innings, whether taking over for a beleaguered starter or closing the game. There was no such thing as a long reliever, middle reliever, bulk reliever, set-up man or closer. There were just relievers, the second class citizens of the pitching staff. Today the analytics department assigns specialized roles to every pitcher in the bullpen in every game situation before the game even starts.
Fantasy managers would do well to take advantage of these changes taking place in real baseball. Target free agents who regularly hit at the top of the lineup. Not only will you get more at bats out of them from game to game, but their real-life managers no doubt consider them to be the best or hottest hitters on the team. Middle relievers used to be totally ignored by fantasy managers but now real-life managers have increased their playing time and placed better pitchers in that role. Reserve one or two spots on your roster for middle relievers most likely to make an impact who have a strong walk to strikeout ratio. The modern-day fantasy manager must also be keenly aware of the constant flow of rest days currently imposed on major league lineups. If your roster allows it, be sure to have adequate depth at each position. Let’s look at a few players who might be available in your league who fit into these newly elevated roles.
GARRETT COOPER, MIAMI MARLINS
Garrett Cooper has been regularly hitting second in the Marlins lineup behind Jazz Chisholm and lighting it up. Since May 20, he’s 36-for-97, hitting at a .371 clip. The full-time role is new but the production is not. He’s been the picture of consistency the last three seasons with barrel percentage figures of 10.1, 10.8 and 9.8 percent from 2020 to 2022 and hard hit percentage figures of 41.6, 52.7 and 43.8 percent. In other words, he has sustained his part-time percentages from the last two seasons into full-time percentages this season, a sure sign of a hitter coming of age. He currently ranks in the top 70th percentile in seven hitting categories (barrel %, hard hit %, average and maximum exit velocity, wOBA, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage) but nevertheless has an ownership percentage across most major fantasy platforms in the 30s. He will also give you multi-position eligibility at first base and the outfield. Filling your roster with multi-position players will facilitate filling any holes created by the constant resting of players. You can have backups available on your bench all in one spot on your roster instead of taking up multiple spots.
CHRISTIAN BETHANCOURT, OAKLAND A’S
Christian Bethancourt has graduated from journeyman part time player to middle of the order everyday player for the Oakland A’s. Bethancourt saw only 161 games for the Braves and Padres from 2013 to 2017. His highest OPS in any one of those seasons was .633 in 73 games for the Padres in 2016. Between 2018 and 2021 he signed as a free agent with three different teams (Brewers, Phillies and Pirates) but did not appear in any games for them. He couldn’t even shake his part time role during a season in the KBO with the NC Dinos in 2019 where he batted .246 in only 53 games. Any fantasy owner could be pardoned if they completely ignored the fact that the A’s signed him as a free agent this past November right before the lockout began. But take notice now. He is the starting first baseman for the A’s, batting fifth in the lineup. If Bethancourt’s percentile rankings were test scores back in grade school, he would be at the top of his class right now. His average exit velocity is in the top 91 percentile, maximum exit velocity in the top 92, hard hit percentage in the top 89, barrel percentage in the top 92 and expected slugging percentage in the top 96. Therefore, while his wOBA and wRC+ numbers are only slightly above league average (.303 and 102), you can expect more. Perhaps the most significant factor in rostering Bethancourt is that his multi-position eligibility includes catcher. If a player is eligible at catcher but gets the majority of his playing time at another position, consider him to be fantasy gold. Even if you already have a productive starting catcher, it’s always an advantage to have more than one catcher on your roster. Most fantasy owners only roster one catcher because of the poor offensive production at the position. But catchers are rested more than any other position player. Therefore, when the fantasy owners in your league do not have an active catcher on any given day, you’ll have the advantage of having one more active player for that day than anyone else if you always have a catcher available every day. And if your catcher is actually a starting first baseman, it will be even greater an advantage.
LUIS GONZALEZ, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
The platoon happy San Francisco Giants have finally given Luis Gonzalez the everyday job in right field against all pitchers. Fantasy owners take notice. He has emerged from the outfield platoon morass of Joc Pederson, Darin Ruf, Wilmer Flores, Steven Duggar and Austin Slater and become the everyday leadoff hitter for the Giants. Gonzalez has spent the last four seasons from 2017 to 2021 in the White Sox minor league system putting up inconsistent numbers. His best season was in A ball in 2018 when he hit .307 with 14 home runs. But he hit only .236, .247 and ,241 in the other three seasons with a total of only 18 home runs. The White Sox placed him on waivers in August of 2021 and the Giants signed him as a free agent on the same day the lockout started on December 1, 2021. Once again, a non-event for fantasy owners. But the name Luis Gonzalez has now once again caught the radar of fantasy owners for the first time since the early 2000s. He’s hitting .303 with a wOBA of .355 and a wRC+ of 131. Even though he is not hitting the ball very hard (his hard hit percentage is only in the top 33 percentile) he makes up for that by making consistent contact. He’s making contact with pitches outside the strike zone 64% of the time and pitches inside the strike zone 87.8% of the time. Compare those figures to the National League MVP last season. Bryce Harper made contact with pitches outside the strike zone 54% of the time and pitches inside the strike zone 78.9% of the time. Gonzalez also hits the ball to all fields, pulling the ball 31% of the time, putting balls in play to the opposite field 35% of the time and up the middle 34% of the time. Lo and behold, we have a leadoff hitter Bobby Bragan would be proud of. If Henry Aaron would have been hitting leadoff today, Luis Gonzalez could have been a leadoff hitter in 1957. As stolen bases have become all but extinct today, Gonzalez becomes a valuable commodity to bolster a scarcity. You don’t find someone on the waiver wire every day who can get you double figures in steals. He has stolen seven out of nine bases so far and should continue to get opportunities with his top 71 percentile sprint speed.
MIDDLE RELIEVERS
When targeting a middle reliever, you need someone who has entered prominence on a real baseball team based on the modern construction of the pitching staff and will make a difference in some way on a fantasy baseball team. Forget whether you play in a points league or a roto league. Forget whether the reliever plays for a good team or a bad team. Just look for the guys with the big arm. Look for guys who can throw it up there at 98 mph, snatch them up and let the chips fall where they may. Even without the possibility of saves or holds, the big arm is sure to deliver strikeouts especially if he is a middle or bulk reliever who pitches multiple innings. Since the abolition of the designated hitter has eliminated the need to pinch hit for pitchers, middle relievers are getting more innings than ever before.
Of course, you need to target the RIGHT big arm. Make sure the metrics suggest fantasy-relevant attributes. Look at his walk to strikeout ratio. A high number of strikeouts will be nullified by a high number of walks in a points league, while in a roto league, an increased number of walks will hurt your WHIP. Look for his BB% to be at least one third of his K% to ensure a ratio that will make a positive difference. Make sure your big arm misses bats and induces soft contact. Look for his soft contact % to be greater than or within 5% of his hard contact % or a single-digit barrel %. Look at his hard hit percentage. Anything under 30 % is elite. Look at his pull % versus his opposite field %. If a pitcher gives up balls put in play at a higher percentage of the time to the opposite field or at least close to those put in play to the pulled side, hitters are getting fooled and making soft contact. Look at his pitch repertoire. If he has a changeup that’s at least 10 mph slower than his fastball, you have a big arm.
The following relievers are not big sources of saves or holds so most likely reside in your league’s waiver wire. But their accompanying metrics make them big arms.
BROCK BURKE, TEXAS RANGERS
7.9 BB% to 30.2 K%
7.7 Barrel %
34.6% balls pulled vs. 28.2% to the opposite field
EVAN PHILLIPS, LOS ANGELES DODGERS
7.8 BB% to 31.4 K%
5.0 Barrel %
33.3% balls pulled vs. 35.0% to the opposite field
ERIK SWANSON, SEATTLE MARINERS
1.6 BB% to 40.3 K% (that’s ridiculous!)
8.3 Barrel %
25.0% soft contact vs. 27.8% hard contact
SCOTT EFFROSS, CHICAGO CUBS
5.8 BB% to 30.6 K%
3.9 Barrel %
21.1% soft contact vs. 19.7% hard contact
RON MARINACCIO, NEW YORK YANKEES
29.0 Hard Hit %
6.5 Barrel %
94.4 mph fastball vs. 83.9 mph changeup
