Baseball’s hot stove has finally heated up, and that means we’re nearing decision time in our keeper leagues, too.
I’m going to focus this discussion on auction leagues, assuming a player’s current fantasy contract will affect your draft-day budget. Deciding on keepers in a snake draft is a lot easier — you’re just keeping the top-ranked guys.
Auction keeper leagues complicate these decisions. I’m in one NL-only 4×4 league that uses long-term contracts, minor league draft picks and all kinds of other fun stuff to keep the league engaging year-round. There’s even a “winter meeting” scheduled for early January, where we’ll have a few beers, bring any league changes to a vote and prepare for our own offseason trading season.
Obviously, there’s a massive advantage to holding on to contracts that are dramatically under market value. And some contracts will be a no-brainer: Breakout players are always coming at a discount, from $1 relievers like Will Smith to lottery tickets like Miles Mikolas, both of whom are easy holds heading into 2019 no matter what you paid last year.
In an only-league, we should consider where production can be harder to find. Is power scarcer in the National League? Are saves tough to find on the junior circuit? Maybe your league-mates go nuts for steals during the auction and you can avoid some drama by keeping a market-rate Cesar Hernandez, thus only battling the auction for one top-end speedster. Perhaps mixing in an offseason trade for Jose Peraza could do the same trick.
We want to lean toward the dependable when choosing keepers. Eugenio Suarez might not have been your best player in 2018, but if you snagged him for $10-$20 in an NL-only league and can keep him for that, it’s an easy hold. The Reds’ young All Star earned $31 worth of mixed-league 5×5 production last season, according to Fangraphs.
But a player like Manny Machado at top-dollar offers the reverse: potential for high-end production but little room for profit (thus an inherently higher risk of loss). I snagged the longtime Oriole with a max-FAAB bid once he changed leagues last season, but not without reservations considering the young slugger’s fairly dramatic home/road splits.
Here are Machado’s career home/road numbers:
Home: .295/.353/.534
Road: .271/.319/.442
That’s a drop in OPS from .887 at home to .761 on the road. And, sure enough, his .315/.387/.575 line as an Oriole in 2018 didn’t exactly translate to the Dodgers, for whom he hit .273/.338/.487. The counting stats were still helpful thanks to the L.A. offense, and Machado was probably the most impactful bat to change leagues, but at $43 there’s not a lot of value going forward.
Because of our rules (a $100 penalty for dropping any $26-and-over FAAB purchase the following season), I’m hoping Machado signs in the AL. Spending $40-plus in FAAB midseason for the NL Machado’s .825 OPS is fine, but re-upping him — should he sign with a National League team — and expecting the AL-version’s .963 OPS isn’t logical. (Although, one of his most likely landing spots, Philadelphia, would make this a closer call.)
In general, I’m looking to head into 2019 with a fairly balanced mix of keepers. A discounted Aaron Nola will anchor my starting staff, and I’m tempted to keep Kenley Jansen at a fairly exorbitant price — keep in mind that there are only 15 closers to choose from on an only-league, and fewer than half will even be available at the auction.
One final season of a discounted Trea Turner will give me a huge advantage in steals (and funds to put toward other offensive stats), and the seemingly still-improving Suarez will bolster an offense that unfortunately will lose Freddie Freeman to the end of his contract. I’ll be quite tempted to keep Diamondbacks set-up man Yoshihisa Hirano for $1, considering Brad Boxberger’s struggles down the stretch. Hell, I might even keep Padres catcher Austin Hedges for $6, considering the dearth of options in a two-catcher NL-only league.
Baseball’s real teams still have many moves to make that will impact rosters, roles and expected output in 2019. For keeper-league owners, our offseason is just getting started.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
Keeper League Wintertime Decisions
