Interesting. The day The Athletic published a great piece talking about the reduced drag on the 2019 baseball, scoring dropped. Sorry, the piece is behind the firewall, but, trust me, a subscription to The Athletic is well worth the sheckles.
Tuesday night’s action featured several outstanding pitching performances and one not so good. A record was broken, but not without a cost. Here’s a review of some of the highlights from a fantasy perspective.
Five in a row for Mad Max
Max Scherzer is silly good. But you know that. There’s really isn’t anything with a fantasy spin to discuss in the Nationals 6-1 victory over the Marlins, so let’s move on.
La Stella’s Angelic Inside-the-Parker
Leading off the Angeles 6-1 victory over the Reds in Anaheim, Tommy Le Stella hit a fly ball off the centerfield wall, eluding Nick Senzel and caroming well into right field where Yasiel Puig watched Senzel chase it down while La Stella successfully rounded the bases. The inside-the-park homer was Le Stella’s 16th four-bagger of the season as he’s no doubt benefiting from the juiced horsehide. La Stella’s heroics pushed his average back to .300. It’s clear he’s earned regular playing time on the strong side of a platoon. Sure, he’s over his skis a little as his contact rate and exit velocity are below average, but a stellar contact rate will soften the fall.
Andrew Heaney was the beneficiary, notching his first victory of the season despite allowing five hits and issuing four walks in five frames. Luis Rengifo slugged a three-run homer in the second, providing Heaney with cushion needed to navigate through the excess of baserunners. Rengifo is quietly enjoying a productive June, slashing .270/.329/.446. OK, maybe he’s not crushing it, but with so many injuries, especially in the middle infield, the rookie is a fine fill-in in deeper formats.
Bumgarner fortifies trade value
It’s scary to realize we’re at the point where every game Madison Bumgarner pitches for the Giants could be his last. The veteran lefty impressed potential suitors with a six inning, 11 strikeout performance against a Colorado Rockies club that historically struggles on the road versus southpaws. San Francisco bested Colorado 4-2 in the return to the majors of Chi Chi Gonzalez, former property of the Texas Rangers. Gonzalez hadn’t appeared in the bigs since 2016.
Giants closer Will Smith is also rumored to be on the block. Smith recorded his 21st save, though he’s likely to go to a contender as a setup man.
Young Padres shine
San Diego defeated Baltimore 8-3 in Camden Yards, providing a glimpse into what’s a promising future for the club. Rookie Logan Allen secured the victory, his second in as many MLB starts. The Padres are loaded with young starters. Allen profiles as more of a mid-rotation sort than front-line ace, but especially at home in Petco Park that plays fine in fantasy. Fellow rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. went deep as did youngsters Francisco Mejia and Manny Margot. Mejia appears to be usurping the regular run behind the dish from Austin Hedges while Margot is still cementing his role in center. Margot’s homer was his first since mid-April and only his third on the season. He does have nine steals without being caught. If the 24-year-old fly-chaser can improve his on base skills, he’d get more chances, but a .287 OBP forces him to the bottom of the order.
What’s that Snell?
Hey, I’m not the only one, the Twitterverse is full of Snelly puns. It’s also full of “Blake Snell’s underlying metrics match last season, he’ll be fine.” First, the game story. The Minnesota Twins blasted the Rays 9-4 with Snell lasting just three innings, authoring 11 hits and seven runs. Match Garver continued his silly season with a 3-for-5 effort, including his 12th homer, scoring twice and knocking in three. Eddie Rosario had four knocks while Willians Astudillo went 3-for-4, also chipping in with the leather making an outstanding catch, robbing a fan of a foul ball souvenir. It all wasn’t good for the Twins as Max Kepler was hit on he elbow by a pitch. Initial X-rays were negative but he’s undergoing more tests.
Back to Snell, while it’s true his K% and BB% match last season’s marks, as does his xFIP, chalking up the difference in actual ERA strictly to luck is a bit myopic. Yes, last season’s BABIP and HR/FB were lucky while the opposite is true this season. Further, regression doesn’t punch a time clock, so much of what is happening is an expected correction. However, just as many were quick to content Snell wasn’t just lucky last season, he “earned” some of that luck, the same is true now. His outcomes aren’t solely bad luck. A little discussed nature of pitching is most starters are two people — windup and stretch guy. When there’s a significant discrepancy between actual and expected ERA, it’s often due to a larger than normal skills difference between windup and stretch guy. The poorer stretch guy pitches, the bigger the difference.
There’s some indication Snell is like this. Last season, a low BABIP kept him in the full windup much of the time. The opposite is true this season. That is, excessive hits force the lefty into the stretch where he’s not as effective. While it follows when the bad luck pertaining to BABIP wanes, Snell will stay in the windup more and be better, I’m not convinced all of his .357 BABIP is bad luck, there’s some bad pitching too. When the bad luck goes away, the bad pitching likely remains, unless, of course, Snell fixes it. The bottom line is Snell is absolutely a buy-low candidate. I’m just leery of the extent of the rebound.
Quick Hitters
Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson had to be carried off a wet and sloppy field last night in Boston. He’s been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, which would be fortunate if that’s all it is.
Brad Hand imploded last night as the Royals tagged the Indians closer for five runs without recording an out. The fact Hand’s ERA is still 2.37 speaks towards his stellar first half.
Ho hum, the Yankees set the MLB record, homering in their 28th straight game. It didn’t take long as DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge went back-to-back in the home half of the first frame. It all wasn’t rosy for the Yankees as Giancarlo Stanton left the contest early with what has been diagnosed as a bruised right knee. The club is hopeful Stanton will accompany his teammates across the pond in their two-game set this weekend in London against their AL East rivals from Beantown. Also, of note is Kendrys Morales was released.
George Springer was activated off the IL, returning to his familiar leadoff spot for the Houston Astros. He had a modest 1-for-4 evening, leaving the spotlight for Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel who each left the yard.
