It is a bit of an unusual year at the top-tier of pitching talent in Major League Baseball — at least in the National League, where one man, Max Scherzer, dominates.
On the American League side, however, the Cy Young Award race is shaping up to be a three-man battle among Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and a newcomer, Trevor Bauer, who has finally put his considerable potential together.
According to ESPN’s “MLB Cy Young Predictor,”* the next three in the AL race are all relievers, inherently less likely to win, but having great seasons nonetheless: Blake Treinen, Edwin Diaz and Craig Kimbrel.
Back in the National League, however, many of the traditional names one expects to see at or near the top are nowhere to be found.
Despite Rookie of the Year honors in 2014 and an excellent pedigree, Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom is ranked ninth in the NL race by the ESPN tool and has never finished higher than seventh in the actual balloting. His current ninth place projection is the best showing by a quartet expected to be leaders.
deGrom’s teammate Noah Syndergaard has a tidy 8-2 record but due to injury has made eight fewer starts than deGrom. Thor’s 3.22 ERA would be fine for more pitchers, but he isn’t an ordinary guy. A 3.22 mark would be his highest ERA since his rookie year. Again, despite all the promise, Syndergaard’s best Cy Young Award showing to date is eighth. On the other hand, he is just 25 years of age with a lot of runway ahead.
St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez has struggled with oblique and lat issues and whenever he finally comes off the disabled list for a second time will work exclusively out of the bullpen for the suddenly contending Cardinals.
The balky back of Clayton Kershaw has restricted the 30-year-old lefty to 18 starts to date. During that time, the three-time Cy Young Award winner has posted a solid 2.47 ERA, but his strikeouts are down considerably, to 8.9 per nine innings, after four consecutive seasons in which his rate never dipped below 10.4. Neither Syndergaard, Martinez, nor Kershaw appear in the current ESPN top 10.
Buried here in the depth of this article is the clear pitching star of the 2018 National League. Despite his underachieving Washington Nationals teammates, Max Scherzer handily leads the Cy Young race, according to ESPN, by a whopping 21.6 points over the Phillies’ Aaron Nola.
All the 33-year-old is doing is leading MLB with 15 wins, 168 2/3 innings pitched and 227 strikeouts. The six-time All-Star leads the NL in WHIP at a minuscule 0.883, 12.1 strikeouts per nine and his 5.68 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
With a consistent offense and a decent bullpen behind him, Scherzer would already have 20 wins — with six weeks remaining in the season. In his five no-decision starts, Scherzer allowed these run totals: one, two, two, one, zero.
Oh yeah, this would be the 33-year-old’s third consecutive Cy Young Award and fourth in the last six years, with his first having been earned with the Detroit Tigers in the AL.
So, keep your eye on the AL race, as every start matters. However, in the NL, the 2018 Cy Young Award is Scherzer’s to lose. His dominance is so special, I encourage you to catch a start or two of his during the final six weeks in case he has to stay home in October.
* The ESPN Cy Young Award Predictor formula, borrowed from sabermetric pioneer Bill James and Rob Neyer, includes innings pitched, earned runs, strikeouts, walks, saves, shutouts, wins, losses and provides bonus points for a division title. The intent is not to determine the best pitcher, but instead to best predict where the voters will land.
The formula seems to work pretty well in forecasting the human vote. In fact, nine of the last 10 winners over the last five years were correctly predicted. The one miss was a second-place finisher.
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 19-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
