Is It Luck?

There are a lot of sabermetricians that eschew FIP in preference of xFIP. I am not a sabermetrician and I don’t. Both are useful tools, and any notion that any deviation from league average HR rate necessarily and always represents luck is misguided. Sometimes it does, other times it doesn’t. If only life, and baseball analysis, were always that simple. That doesn’t mean xFIP is worse than FIP. Both are tools whose true utility is better defined by context. The particular pitcher, ballpark, schedule, recent command, control, etc. all are factors that illuminate to give a truer picture of what’s happened. This can inform our guesses as to what might come. Clayton Kershaw has a career HR/FB rate of 8%. Masahiro Tanaka checks in at 16.6%. Do we really want to argue that the difference between is all due strictly to luck? Statcast data givies us evidence that the more often a hitter barrels the ball, the more often it’s going to fly out of the park. Nasty splitters chased in the dirt are more difficult to barrel up than mistake pitches grooved down the middle.

Every year following the 2014 season (9.5%) the league average FB rate has increased every year, peaking last year at 13.7%. This year we’ve seen it dip back down to 12.6%. Still pretty high. Were going to examine the top starters in terms of keeping fly balls in the park this season.

*Does not include yesterday’s starts from Mike Clevinger and Reynoldo Lopez.

So how should we parse this? Trevor Bauer is a different pitcher this year. The outspoken Indian made some mechanical changes in the past that are finally blossoming this year. I don’t think its merely luck. Nevertheless, even if we don’t believe in an omnipotent regression monster, we still have to concede it has some power. 4.6% HR/FB rate isn’t sustainable. Bauer more than tripled the use of his most effective pitch this year, his slider, with hitters struggling with a .102 batting average against. He’s also throwing the fastball less often, making it a little more effective than it was in 2017. The slider is yielding a .127 slugging % against, the fastball .412. Throwing your most effective pitches more often isn’t good fortune; it’s skill and intelligence. Still 4.6% is a hard row to continue to hoe. Jhoulys Chacin is also throwing fewer fastballs and more sliders (again best pitch) though the difference in usage is slight. In this Brewers case I’m going lean on the xFIP a little more than I would with Bauer. Justin Verlander’s impressive 6.9% is just a smidge below his career average, and with the pitch usage gurus in Houston guiding the former Tiger, that low number may be stickier than you might think. Reynaldo Lopez’s numbers are based on too small a sample size to fully trust. Both FIP and xFIP agree that future days aren’t as sunny for the south side hurler. Jacob Degrom’s least effective pitch is the sinker (highest BA and Slugging % from opposing hitters), so he’s cut its usage nearly in half. It’s no coincidence that his HR/FB rate has dropped down to 8%.

As we head into the All Star Break, this is a good time to evaluate your fantasy pitching staff to determine how many reinforcements, if any, you will need in the second half. Look at the types of numbers you see in this chart, and then contextualize them. Are they real? Was it luck? A mix? Is it due to an increase or decrease in velocity? Is your pitcher throwing certain pitches more or less often and thus putting a better foot forward? Brooksbaseball.net is an invaluable resource as you sift through these things. With this info you can determine, is your first place ERA and second place WHIP real or a mirage? Do I need to pick up replacements or increase my pitching depth? Or does the data say no worries; I’m all set? For example I’ve got Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Charlie Morton as my three WHIP anchors. This has our team first in both ratio categories, however, the Cleveland ace hasn’t displayed Cy Young form over the last 6 starts. Posting a 5.03 ERA along with a 1.12 WHIP (high for Kluber). My instincts told me something was amiss when they yanked Kluber early during a rough outing back on June 15^th. He received an injection in his right knee. Hopefully that will fix things in short order, but there’s no guarantee, and fantasy owners have to just cross their fingers and keep an eye on the wire for reinforcements if the knee issue lingers.

Stay tuned. In the coming weeks we’ll still cover baseball, but also mix in some football with an eye on upcoming NFFC drafts.

Follow Greg @liquidhippo.