Opening Day is just a week away. But with the return of baseball season comes injury troubles that are already piling up for many of the league’s top players. Let’s take a look at the biggest injuries that happened during Spring Training so far, how long the recovery time is, and how player performance will be impacted. We’ll have another article coming with important updates on players that continue to recover from offseason surgeries.
*IRC = Injury Risk Category (current risk of injury – Low, Elevated or High)
*HPF = Health Performance Factor (projection of how injuries will impact performance if a player is on the field right now)
Pitchers
Zack Greinke ARI: right groin strain
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
Zack Greinke won’t be the Diamondbacks Opening Day starter this year. Greinke suffered a groin strain during a
his start on March 14 and pitched just one inning. He was able to throw a bullpen session over the weekend and could make a start in the first week of the season, but it was enough of a setback that he needs two weeks to fully recover according to our analytics. Greinke has also had some issues with his fastball velocity this spring, and little injuries could be partially be to blame. His velocity also dropped slightly last season. We said before Spring Training that Greinke’s age (34) is a bit concerning, and the many years of wear and tear on his body could finally be starting to show.
Kenley Jansen LAD: right hamstring tightness
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Above Average
Jansen didn’t make his schedule appearance last Friday due to tightness in his right hamstring. It was fairly minor, and our algorithm showed that his injury comes with just a one week Optimal Recovery Time (ORT). Jansen was able to pitch in a minor league Monday and will pitch in a Cactus League game later this week. For now this isn’t a serious concern. While his Injury Risk remains Elevated, his HPF is Above Average, an indication that he should be able to pitch well.
Jacob deGrom NYM: back soreness
IRC: High
HPF: Below Average
Back soreness delayed deGrom’s Spring Training debut, but he has since made two starts and is on track to make his first regular season start on March 31. While this all sounds like good news, he remains a High Injury Risk. Back injuries are notoriously tricky and can even lead to other related injuries for pitchers as they try to overcompensate. What’s even more concerning is deGrom’s injury history, which includes neck stiffness last season, 2016 ulnar nerve surgery on his elbow, rotator cuff tendinitis in 2014 and Tommy John surgery in 2010. It may sound like he escaped a serious injury, plenty of injury concerns remain.
Marcus Stroman TOR: right shoulder inflammation
IRC: High
HPF: Poor
Following a 2015 ACL tear, Stroman has had two strong seasons with no significant injuries. But back in February an MRI showed inflammation in his pitching shoulder that has delayed his Spring Training work. He has progressed enough to make his Spring Training debut, although this was enough of a setback that he won’t be the Blue Jays Opening Day starter. Our analytics show a four week ORT, so he isn’t out of the woods just yet and remains a week away from his Health to Return Date.
Others to Watch:
Danny Salazar CLE: right rotator cuff inflammation
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
Drew Pomeranz BOS: left forearm tightness
IRC: High
HPF: Poor
Luke Gregerson STL: oblique strain
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
Ervin Santana MIN: right middle finger surgery
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Poor
Luiz Gohara ATL: ankle sprain & groin strain
IRC: Low
HPF: Above Average
Hitters
Javier Baez CHC: left hamstring injury
IRC: High
HPF: Below Average
Baez spent the last week on the sideline due to soreness in his left hamstring. While the Cubs are downplaying the injury, our algorithm says otherwise. These lower body muscular injuries often recur (just look at Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Donaldson last season). We are showing a 2-4 week ORT, so this could be a lingering concern over the next month. Baez has returned to the Cubs’ lineup, but he isn’t close to 100% yet.
Justin Turner LAD: broken left wrist
IRC: High
HPF: Poor
Perhaps the most serious injury of Spring Training so far is the wrist fracture to Justin Turner. It’s to his left hand, which is good news because it isn’t his throwing arm. But wrist injuries are incredibly tough to recover from, even minor ones. Turner could be back in the Dodgers’ lineup within the next 6-8 weeks, but his power is going to take much longer to return. He may not be back at full strength until the All Star break.
Yoenis Cespedes NYM: right wrist and shoulder injuries
IRC: High
HPF: Poor
Last season it was a series of hamstring strains that plagued Cespedes, and so far he already has multiple injury concerns, and the regular season hasn’t even started yet. Early on he battled shoulder soreness, but just as that appeared to be in his past his wrist started to act up. It was bad enough that he had to receive a cortisone injection last week. Cespedes is back in the lineup now, but concerns remain. Before Spring Training started we said that Cespedes wasn’t worth drafting in fantasy, and that hasn’t changed. His injury risk is far too concerning.
Nelson Cruz SEA: quad strain
IRC: High
HPF: Below Average
Over the last 6 seasons, Cruz has played in at least 152 games each year (except for 2013 when he played in 109 due to a 50-game suspension). He’s incredibly durable, but the injuries are starting to pile up for the veteran. Last year he had a partial calf tear to go along with knee soreness and a hamstring strain. Now he is battling a quad strain that could possibly delay his season debut. Our algorithm is showing a two week ORT, which would indicate he will be healthy right around Opening Day. Cruz is expected to see live pitching any day now. If he avoid a setback he could make a few more Spring Training appearances, but a slight setback could push his recovery back weeks. His Injury Risk is incredibly high right now.
Robinson Cano SEA: hamstring strain
IRC: High
HPF: Below Average
One week ago, Cano suffered a grade 1 hamstring strain, the same injury he battled last season. His quad was also a problem in 2017. While Cano has played in at least 150 games every year since 2007, the lower body injuries are concerning. These injuries tend to pile up, and as Cano gets older ( he is 35), they will take longer and longer to recover from, also leading to associated injuries. This injury alone may not be a huge red flag, but the last 12 months have to make us wonder if he is declining after over 2,000 career games. He’s High Risk.
Matt Carpenter STL: back injury
IRC: High
HPF: Below Average
Toward the end of last season, Carpenter’s shoulder started to act up. Now his back is causing problems, so it’s no surprise that he has jumped to a High Injury Risk. Carpenter’s Spring Training debut was delayed until last week, and he has looked great since joining the lineup. But his shoulder and back remain a concern. Our analytics show that he is still a High Injury Risk, and his multiple injuries are going to affect his performance at the start of the season.
Others to Watch:
Justin Bour MIA: back spasms
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
Bradley Zimmer CLE: left groin strain
IRC: High
HPF: Below Average
Chris Davis BAL: elbow soreness
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
J.T. Realmuto MIA: bruised lower back
IRC: Low
HPF: Above Average
Scooter Gennett CIN: sore right shoulder
IRC: High
HPF: Poor
Yuli Gurriel HOU: left hand surgery
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Poor
Mark Trumbo BAL: quad strain
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
Ryon Healy SEA: right hand surgery
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
Troy Tulowitzki TOR: right heel bone spur
IRC: High
HPF: Below Average
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