As the fantasy baseball draft season commences, we are here to provide an early look at guys coming back from season-ending injuries and offseason surgeries. Most of them are still High Risk according to our algorithm, but some will improve faster than others.
Continue to check back at InsideInjuries.com for updates and more detailed analysis throughout Spring Training. And keep an eye out for our Draft Package that will be released later in February!
[Update on hitters recovering from offseason surgeries]
MLB Injury Updates- Pitchers
Zach Britton– torn Achilles
Injury Date: December 2017
Expected Return: mid-season (July)
Britton suffered a freak Achilles tendon tear during an offseason workout in December. He was running a 40-yard
sprint, and POP. He pushed off of his foot and it snapped. Britton underwent surgery to repair the ruptured right Achilles and is now looking at a recovery time of 6 months according to our algorithm.
The good news here is that Britton is a pitcher, so his recovery time isn’t as long as if he was a position player who needed to sprint and cut more often. It’s a long recovery, but one he can certainly come back from sometime in July.
Now, the bigger concern when he does return is his injury history. In 2017 he landed on the 60-day DL due to a forearm strain. Any injury to the pitching arm is concerning, but especially one of this severity. Then his season ended when he received a stem cell injection in his troublesome knee. Britton never improved from a High Injury Risk and could remain in that category throughout the entire season, even when he is healthy enough to return from the Achilles tendon tear. He’s nothing more than a late round flyer if you have room on your bench or a DL spot to stash him.
Danny Duffy– elbow surgery to remove loose bodies of cartilage and bone fragments
Injury Date: October 2017
Expected Return: Opening Day
Duffy was sidelined last season due to left elbow impingement and ultimately underwent surgery in the offseason that involved loose body removal (cartilage and bone fragments). This surgery isn’t too invasive and can lead to great results. Duffy later said he wished he had done the surgery sooner as he was trying to fight through a good bit of discomfort. Now Duffy is making good progress and is already a month into his throwing program.
While Duffy does remain a High injury Risk (as do most pitchers recovering from any surgery to their throwing arm), his numbers are improving quickly. Duffy should have a fairly normal Spring Training, which means he will be good to go on Opening Day. Don’t reach too high for Duffy as he isn’t in the clear just yet, but he should be a solid starting pitcher in 2018.
Hisashi Iwakuma– shoulder surgery to repair structural damage
Injury Date: September 2017
Expected Return: May/June
2017 was a lost season for Iwakuma, who made just six starts due to a series of shoulder injuries and setbacks. He underwent surgery in September after finally admitting that structurally there were problems in his shoulder. Iwakuma was cleared last month to resume throwing but won’t be ready at the start of the season.
Iwakuma will have to fight for a spot in the Mariners’ starting rotation when he is healthy, and that shouldn’t be until June according to our Optimal Recovery Time. Don’t bother drafting Iwakuma this season. He isn’t guaranteed a spot in the rotation, he has a concerning injury history, and he remains a High Injury Risk. It won’t payoff.
Carlos Rodon– left shoulder surgery to relieve bursitis
Injury Date: September 2017
Expected Return: May/June
Rodon had two stints on the DL in 2017 due to bursitis in his pitching shoulder and underwent arthroscopic surgery following the season. He has started his throwing program and is progressing well so far, but it’s still early in the process. If his recovery continues to stay on track, he could be looking at a return to the rotation in May or June.
Even when he is healthy enough to return, Rodon will remain a High Injury Risk for awhile. His history of arm problems is a concern, and this was a pretty significant injury. Rodon should return before the All Star Break, but our analytics show he won’t be at Peak Health until much later in the season. And that’s if he avoid any setbacks along the way. Rodon is way too risky to draft right now.
Michael Fulmer– elbow surgery
Injury Date: September 2017
Expected Return: Opening Day
Fulmer missed the final month of the season to undergo ulnar transposition surgery in his pitching elbow, a surgery that comes with an Optimal Recovery Time of 16 weeks. He has hit that Healthy to Return date and should be a looking at a normal Spring training. Fulmer is still a bit risky but should be a top 50 starting pitcher if he stays healthy. The slightest recurrence of elbow problems, though, could ruin his season.
Fulmer will be a high risk, high reward guy to consider when drafting. You just don’t want too many players like this on your roster. It’s a delicate balance because not all will work out.
Michael Pineda– Tommy John surgery
Injury Date: July 2017
Expected Return: 2019
Pineda is just seven months removed from Tommy John surgery and is a long-shot to pitch in 2018. The recovery time can last up to 18 months, even without a setback along the way, so 2019 is a more realistic target. Pineda is throwing from 60 feet but has a long way to go. Right now the goal should be to make a few minor league rehab appearances later in the season, but he won’t have the arm strength and stamina to be a rotation guy, even in September if the Twins are in the playoff picture.
Jimmy Nelson– shoulder surgery, right rotator cuff strain and partial anterior labrum tear
Injury Date: September 2017
Expected Return: June
After shoulder surgery to repair a partial anterior labrum tear and rotator cuff tear, Jimmy Nelson’s fantasy value is tough to predict in 2018. Nelson had a great strikeout and ground ball rate when he was healthy and can be a top of the rotation guy. But this is a significant injury for a pitcher. Even if he can return to the mound before the All Star break, he won’t be anywhere close to Peak health according to our analytics. That can take up to a year.
Nelson has been throwing from 60 feet, but the real test will be progressing to 90 feet and throwing consistently enough to really test the shoulder. He’s too good to remove from draft boards entirely, but he is another high risk, high reward guy. You may only get half of a season out of him, and expect some inconsistent performances when he is back in the rotation. If you have a DL spot he could be a nice stash.
Alex Reyes– Tommy John surgery
Injury Date: February 2017
Expected Return: May
The Cardinals could have their top prospect back in May or June. Reyes suffered a torn UCL during Spring Training last year and underwent Tommy John surgery. 15 month post surgery is about as quick as a player can make a return to the mound. So far Reyes’ recovery has gone well, and he threw a 40-pitch bullpen session in early February. The Cardinals are going to be cautious with their young pitcher, but they are optimistic that he is close to being at full strength.
For now it is unclear what role Reyes will have when he is fully cleared. If he is used in a relief role (which is likely, especially early on), he will only have so much fantasy value. He won’t see enough time on the mound to pile up on wins or strikeouts, and his walk rate was a concern throughout his time in the minors. For now there are too many questions surrounding Reyes to use a pick on him unless you have a deep bench. With lingering injury concerns and uncertainty on how he will fit in, he isn’t worth the risk. One other thing to keep in mind is that he is only been throwing fastballs. Breaking balls put more stress on the elbow, so that will be an important test in the next few months.
Ervin Santana– finger surgery
Injury Date: February 2018
Expected Return: May
Earlier this month, Ervin Santana underwent surgery to the middle finger on his right hand. This was an old injury that he thought he recovered from, but when he ramped up his workouts it popped up again. He had pitched through it at times last year, and it only bothered him on sliders and changeups. During surgery a calcium deposit was removed, a fairly minor procedure all things considered. Santana remains in a cast but is a few weeks away from getting it removed.
While we never want to hear that a pitcher needs surgery to throwing arm (shoulder, elbow or hand), this one isn’t a major concern. The Optimal Recovery Time is around 12, and it shouldn’t have a lingering impact once he is cleared.
Because he is set to miss the first month of the season, Santana’s fantasy value has of course dropped. He is now worth targeting late in drafts to add depth to your starting pitching, but he can’t be relied on as the ace anymore. His age is also a red flag, making him a risky pickup.
Shohei Ohtani– ankle surgery and partial UCL tear
Injury Date: October 2017
Expected Return: Opening Day
The talk of the offseason was the Angels addition of top international prospect Shohei Ohtani. He has the tools to be the ace of a rotation and a reliable power hitter, something Major League Baseball hasn’t seen in decades. But Ohtani comes with significant injury concerns.
The first concern, surgery to remove a bone spur and an extra bone that had developed behind his ankle, increases his injury risk slightly but isn’t going to have a major impact on his pitching (it may affect his hitting a bit more). The bigger red flag, though, is the UCL sprain in his pitching elbow. Ohtani received a PRP injection to address a grade 1 sprain. There isn’t a tear to the ligament, but over time (it could be months, it could be years) as more stress is placed on the elbow, it could develop into a tear that would require Tommy John surgery. While he is a risky pick, he is worth considering in the top 100 due to his potential as a pitcher and a hitter.
Read up on how these injuries will impact Ohtani at the plate.
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