As the fantasy baseball draft season commences, we are here to provide an early look at guys coming back from season-ending injuries and offseason surgeries. Most of them are still High Risk according to our algorithm, but some will improve faster than others.
Continue to check back at InsideInjuries.com for updates and more detailed analysis throughout Spring Training. And keep an eye out for our Draft Package that will be released later in February!
MLB Injuries Entering Spring Training- Field Players
Aaron Judge– left shoulder surgery, loose body removal and cartilage cleanup
Injury Date: November 2017
Expected Return: Opening Day
After almost every game in the second half of the 2017 season, Aaron Judge was seen with an ice pack on his left shoulder. Whenever he was asked if it was an issue, he said no. But Judge underwent surgery on his troublesome shoulder in November, a procedure to remove a loose body and cleanup the cartilage in the joint. The recovery for this surgery is around 12-16 weeks, so he should be ready to go on Opening Day. The Yankees will bring him along slowly throughout Spring Training.
The good news here is that the injury isn’t to his throwing shoulder. It may affect his power at the plate early in the season but by May he should have it back. Don’t stretch to draft Judge in the first round of fantasy baseball drafts, but he is worth consideration late in the second or third rounds.
Daniel Murphy– right knee (debridement and microfracture surgery)
Injury Date: October 2017
Expected Return: Opening Day
Soon after the Nationals season was over, Murphy underwent right knee microfracture surgery to repair damage to the articular cartilage. This is always a serious procedure and comes with an Optimal Recovery Time of 24+ months, but it can take up to a year to fully recover (and some players are never the same).
The last update we got on Murphy was that he is no longer on crutches and has started to run. That still means he has at least three months until he will be ready to take the field. Jogging is very different than the lateral movements necessary to field or the lower body rotation required to swing the bat. Both of those motions put a lot of stress on the knee, which makes being ready by Opening Day a stretch.
If the Nats rush Murphy back, he will be at a high risk of re-injury. It’s best to target a return in May with a plan to give him plenty of days off through the All Star break. His knee is going to need it if he wants to be near full strength late in the season. Murphy is worth consideration as a top 10 fantasy second baseman, but top 5 is a stretch due to his injury concerns.
Dustin Pedroia– left knee surgery, cartilage restoration procedure
Injury Date: October 2017
Expected Return: April/May
After left knee surgery in the offseason, Pedroia is unlikely to be ready at the start of the season. This was a cartilage restoration procedure. Like Murphy’s microfracture surgery, this comes with a very long recovery of at least 6 months. Pedroia hit the DL twice in 2017 due to the injury and battled knee pain for most of the season. Inside Injuries had him at an increased injury risk for the rest of the year, and our analytics show that it hurt his performance at times.
Now Pedroia remains a High Injury Risk as he continues to recover. Pedroia won’t hit his Optimal Recovery Time until May, and even then he will need another month or two before we can be confident he is healthy enough to contribute. He is someone to avoid in just about all fantasy drafts. It’s way too risky.
Hanley Ramirez– left shoulder arthroscopy and debridement
Injury Date: October 2017
Expected Return: Opening Day
Hanley Ramirez wants to be the big bat in the Red Sox lineup, but there are a few things that are going to get in the way. He is coming off of left shoulder surgery, which often affects power early on. Ramirez says he didn’t hit his best in 2017 due to his shoulder problems, and our analytics show that that was the case as his HPF (Health Performance Factor) was never Peak, an indication that he is healthy enough to play his best.
After surgery, his HPF dropped to Poor. This will slowly improve throughout Spring Training as he gets closer to his 24 week Optimal Recovery Time, but he isn’t there yet. Ramirez is also 34 years old, which is getting up there for a power hitter. He has way to many factors working against him. Don’t bother drafting Ramirez this year.
Michael Brantley– right ankle surgery to stabilize ligaments
Injury Date: October 2017
Expected Return: April/May
Michael Brantley has yet to play a full season since 2015. In 2016 he played just 11 games due to shoulder surgery, and in 2017 it was his right ankle problems that twice landed him on the DL. Following the season he underwent surgery to stabilize the ligaments. Once a player suffers multiple sprains, the ligaments begin to stretch and weaken.
Brantley’s recovery is expected to take 5-6 months, which makes a return for Opening Day a stretch. Brantley has had so many injury concerns over the last two years that the Indians need to take a very cautious approach. They took a $12 million gamble by picking up his option for 2018. In order to get the most out of their left fielder, they need to bring him back slowly and give him days off along the way to ensure that he is getting the rest he needs.
At this point Brantley is worth nothing more than a late round pick as a high risk/high reward guy to target. We know he can be a great player, but injury concerns could always ruin another season. He remains a High Injury Risk for now.
Miguel Sano– left shin stress reaction surgery
Injury Date: November 2017
Expected Return: Opening Day
Miguel Sano played well enough in the first half of last season to earn a spot in the All Star game, but a stress reaction in his left shin lead to a rough few months. This isn’t as serious as a fracture, but if it doesn’t heal on its own surgery is often necessary. In this case, it was. He underwent surgery in November to have a rod inserted to stabilize the bone. It’s realistic for him to be ready to go for Opening Day as the Optimal Recovery Time is around 12 weeks. Sano can safely be targeted as a top 100 player, but anything better than that is a bit of a stretch due to his injury. (He is also still under investigation by MLB, so a suspension remains a possibility).
Michael Conforto– left shoulder surgery, torn posterior capsule
Injury Date: September 2017
Expected Return: May
As Michael Conforto continues to work his way back from a pretty serious surgery on his left shoulder, he is targeting a return sometime in May. It’s too soon to tell if that is going to be realistic, but our analytics show he won’t be fully healthy and back at Peak health until after the All Star break. Conforto essentially ripped his arm out of his shoulder socket, forcing him to undergo surgery to repair a torn posterior capsule.
Now five months removed from surgery, Conforto remains a High injury Risk. He was having a great season before the injury, but this is something that could impact him for most of the 2018 season. Conforto will be a high risk/high reward outfield option. The earliest his HPF will move into the Above Average category is June according to our algorithm. So if you do decide to draft him, make sure you have other options who can contribute early in the year. It will be a long time before Conforto has much fantasy value.
David Wright– right rotator cuff surgery & laminotomy procedure on lower back
Injury Date: September (shoulder surgery), October (back surgery)
Expected Return: unknown
Over the last three seasons, David Wright has played just 75 total games due to injuries. Entering the 2018 season, there remains little reason to be optimistic about his health. Since his last major league appearance in May 2016, he has multiple surgeries to address spinal stenosis, underwent another back surgery and had surgery to repair his right rotator cuff. Any one of these surgeries alone would be concerning, and the combined effect could be too much to overcome as he attempts a comeback.
Our algorithm is showing that there is almost zero chance that he can return to the majors and be effective. His back injury is very complicated, and playing baseball will continue to put added stress on the back and neck.
Now the team is considering placing David Wright on the 60-day DL. Wright has not resumed baseball activities yet and is unlikely to be a contributor this season. He will remain a High Injury Risk even if he is cleared and plays at some point this year.
Shohei Ohtani– ankle surgery & partial UCL tear
Injury Date: October 2017
Expected Return: Opening Day
The biggest offseason signing was two-way star Shohei Ohtani to the Angels. But the rookie comes with some injury concerns. Let’s talk about how his ankle and elbow could affect him at the plate this year.
Ohtani underwent right ankle surgery in October to address an injury he suffered a year before while running the bases. It continued to bother him last season, and surgery was the best option for his long-term health. He is past the Optimal Recovery Time according to our algorithm and should be a normal participant at Spring Training. It doesn’t look like this will have any sort of a lingering effect on him at the plate.
The bigger concern here is Ohtani’s elbow. If he was just a power hitter, it wouldn’t be as alarming. But as a pitcher, Ohtani will place added stress on his pitching elbow, which could lead to further damage to the UCL. He received a PRP injection in the fall to address a partial tear. All reports have been positive so far, but this is the type of injury that could pop up again at any moment. It could be next month. It could be in five years. But this won’t be the last we hear of elbow problems. If it does flare up and inflammation becomes an issue, it will certainly affect his power. Ohtani comes at a high price this year, and it may not pay off. Don’t reach and draft him too high.
Read up on how the injuries will impact Ohtani on the mound
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