You’ve certainly read or heard something like, “The Ravens have an implied total of 27.” If you follow the theory, the person that is stating this “fact” is implying that the all-knowledgeable oddsmakers believe that the Ravens will score 27 points. Therefore, you should consider the ways that the Ravens will get three touchdowns and a pair of field goals, and consider making your fantasy lineup accordingly.
Let’s go a bit further. The implied total is based upon Las Vegas’ (or other gaming institution’s) over/under line, and the game’s line. In this example, the game between the Ravens and their opponents has an over/under of 47, and the Ravens are favored by 7. Since the combined score is 47, and the Ravens are “projected” to win by 7, it follows that the oddsmaker’s projection is that the Ravens win the game 27-20. Simple, right? Makes sense, too.
Except that it doesn’t. This entire theory is flawed from the get go. Oddsmakers don’t predict the total score, and oddsmakers don’t predict which team will win and by how many. Frankly, they don’t care. Please allow me to explain.
Vegas doesn’t care who wins. They don’t make their money on predicting the winning team (that’s the gambler’s job). Vegas makes their money on the Vig. They don’t want to be betting on one team or the other.
Let’s imagine that you are betting around $100.00. When you bet on a game, you have to bet $110.00 to make $100.00. If you win, you get the $110.00 back, plus your $100.00 profit. If you lose, you lose $110.00. In a perfect world, Vegas will have equal amounts bet on both teams. In that scenario, the losing better loses $110.00. The winning better wins $100.00. Vegas takes $100.00 from the losing better and pays the winning better, and Vegas makes $10.00 for being the middleman.
This, again in a perfect scenario, equates to a 5% take for Vegas on every bet. Done correctly, Vegas cannot lose, and doesn’t care which team wins. This is true for the over/under bets as well.
Oddsmaker’s set lines up not based upon who will win the game and by how much, but instead based upon what the oddsmakers believe that public likely thinks. The opening line is an oddsmaker’s best attempt at trying to equalize the amount of money bet on each side, in an effort to obtain the perfect 50% – 50% split. They care about public perception, not a team’s abilities, or lack thereof.
Years ago, prior to the Internet, the 49ers were typically more heavily favored in Lake Tahoe and Reno than they were in Las Vegas. This makes perfect sense. A good portion of Tahoe/Reno’s bets would be coming from the Bay Area, where the 49ers were revered. Las Vegas typically drew from across the Country, with a significant portion of the bets coming from Southern California. The 49ers were not as popular outside of Northern California.
The goal is to find an opening line that satisfies betters from both teams. As money rolls in on one team and not as much on the other, the lines invariably change to help entice betters to bet on the lesser bet team. Generally, when you see a line move, it has nothing to do with a team suddenly getting better (or worse) over the past few days. Instead, the line moves to help convince the public to bet on the team that is trailing in money bet.
Oddsmaker Bob Martin, dubbed “The Man Who Made Vegas,” set a line in Super Bowl III of the Jets plus 18 against the Baltimore Colts. The Jets ultimately won 16-7, pulling off a huge upset. Or did they? Vegas wasn’t upset. Martin was asked after the game if he was embarrassed for missing the line by so much. His response was something to the effect of “This was one of my best lines ever, as the betting split almost perfectly down the middle.”
Simply put, oddsmakers aren’t predicting the score, they are predicting the public.
Now, let’s look again at “Implied Totals.” Pay them no mind.
As indicated, the over/under totals are not based on any expert prediction. They aren’t predictions at all. The same is true for the betting line.
Implied totals are based only upon a projection of what the betting public thinks. Your projection as to the total points scored and the winning team’s total score is no worse, and most likely better, than Vegas’ projection of the overall betting public. Trust me, you are certainly better than the public at large.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
