Early in the MLB season, we fantasy baseball managers are constantly reminding ourselves not to overreact to small samples. Small samples are notoriously unreliable and can lead to big mistakes for managers with itchy trigger fingers. After all, Willie Mays famously began his career 1-for-25. Fortunately for those who might otherwise have cut him precipitously, there was no fantasy baseball in 1950.
However, where big improvements or regressions from prior seasons are accompanied by a narrative that makes the small samples more plausible, faster action may be warranted. Here are a few hitters I’m targeting now, small samples be damned:
Buster Posey was one of the very best-hitting catchers in baseball from 2010-2017, but he offered only empty batting average with no power – and missed time due to hip surgery – in 2018 and provided neither a high batting average nor power in 2019. He opted out of the 2020 season and is now 34 years old. All those years of crouching and home-plate collisions – including one awful collision that resulted in a broken leg and an MLB rule change – appeared to have taken their toll, and that’s without factoring in the likely rust after sitting out all of 2020. As a result, Posey went undrafted in many single-catcher leagues this year (ADP around 253). But so far, in a tiny two-game sample, Posey is once again hitting the ball with authority, with two homers in his first eight at-bats. According to Statcast, his average 2021 exit velocity is in the 75th percentile of MLB hitters, his xwOBA is in the 94th percentile, and his xSLG is in the 96th percentile. He also hit pretty well in spring training, with an .873 OPS that is even more impressive given that he missed all of last year. My theory is that a full year without crouching and crashing has rejuvenated Posey, and I expect him to keep hitting, albeit not at his current pace of a homer per game. If you’re looking for an upgrade at catcher – and who isn’t these days? – go ahead and grab Posey before someone beats you to him.
Michael A. Taylor has always possessed an intriguing combination of power and speed, but he rarely made enough contact to take full advantage of those skills, striking out in roughly a third of his career at-bats. In fact, he had basically cemented his status as a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement prior to signing with Kansas City this offseason. He was nearly universally undrafted in fantasy leagues, with an ADP in the 500-range, despite being penciled in as the Royals’ starting center fielder, and despite a terrific spring training performance (1.053 OPS in 39 at-bats). Taylor’s hot spring has carried over into the regular season, with six hits, including two homers, in his first 13 at-bats. One of his two homers traveled an impressive 458 feet to dead center field. Statcast lists Taylor in the 85th percentile for average exit velocity, the 99th percentile for xwOBA, and the 98th percentile for xSLG. Even though he’s now 30 years old, his sprint speed thus far in 2021 is in the 97th percentile of MLB players, so the power-speed combo is still there. And unlike in prior years, he’s making consistent contact, having struck out just once in 13 regular season at-bats (although he did strike out at a high rate during spring training). I think this is the year Taylor finally begins to live up to his potential. For one thing, he seems to have a lock a full-time gig in center field, which may help him maintain more consistency. For another, he has reworked his swing, dropping his leg kick in favor of a toe-tap, which should help his timing and certainly doesn’t seem to have adversely affected his power. If you need an outfielder with power and speed, don’t wait for a larger sample; take a chance on Taylor.
Justin Upton was the first overall draft pick in 2005, and has had an excellent career, including eleven consecutive seasons, from 2008 – 2018, with an OPS between .775 and .901. But in 2019, he missed nearly three months with a toe injury and posted an OPS of just .724, with a .215 batting average. His 2020 was even worse, with a .711 OPS and a batting average just north of the Mendoza line, at .204. This year, at the past-peak age of 33, he was an afterthought in most drafts, with an ADP around 300. But Upton had a huge spring, with four homers and an OPS of 1.132 in 44 at-bats, and he’s off to a solid start, with a homer and an .875 OPS in 12 at bats to begin the season. He’s making plenty of hard contact, with an average exit velocity in the 82nd percentile, a 79th-percentile xwOBA, and a 77th-percentile xSLG. The narrative on Upton is simple; he seems fully healthy for the first time since 2018, when he hit 30 homers with an .808 OPS. If you’re looking for homers and RBI in a 12-team mixed league or shallower, Upton may well be available and is well worth a roll of the dice.
