This time of year, you hear a lot about position scarcity. There are a large number who subscribe to the theory, and an equally large number who don’t. While the pundits may be mixed, they are almost universally against “wasting” a high draft pick on catchers. The rational is often that “catchers don’t play every game” or “catchers are injury prone.”
True on both points. But does that make these arguments right? Is it a poor decision to draft a catcher early?
Let me digress a moment. One of the most popular reasonably new statistics in baseball is WAR (Wins Above Replacement). WAR means, roughly, “the number of additional wins his team has achieved above the number of expected team wins if that player were substituted with a replacement-level player — someone who might be added to the team for minimal cost and effort.”
While WAR is a great way of evaluating a player’s relative value to his team, it doesn’t do a whole lot for fantasy owners going into a draft. For that reason, let’s try a new statistic, or at least a “new” statistic to me. Let’s go with, “VCAP,” or “Value Compared to the Average Player.”
In a standard 15-team league, approximately 23 shortstops will be in the league’s starting lineup (15 at shortstop and around eight at middle infield). The same is true for second basemen.
Using a combination of projections, including Steamer, I took the top 23 shortstops and averaged the projected stats to come up with the “Average Shortstop.” Remember, these are players that are likely starting on teams in standard 15-team leagues.
The Average Shortstops stats are:
78 Runs
20 Home Runs
74 Runs Batted In
12 Steals
.270 Batting Average
Using the same method, the Average Second Basemans stats are:
74 Runs
18 Home Runs
70 Runs Batted In
13 Steals
.268 Batting Average
Using those numbers, we can see how much more effective a player is than the average at his position, a kind of WAR for fantasy.
Relying upon the NFBC’s ADP, J.T. Realmuto is presently going 47th overall in NFBC 15-team leagues. Gary Sanchez is going 53rd overall.
Pundits will tell you that these players are being over drafted. Remember, they are injury prone and only play five days a week. Of course, their projections are based upon the possibility of catchers playing fewer games than position players.
Carlos Correa is currently going 48th overall (right after Realmuto), and Ozzie Albies is going 54th (right after Sanchez).
Correa’s projection is as follows (with the “average” shortstop’s projection in parenthesis):
Runs 82 (78)
Home Runs 25 (20)
RBI 90 (74)
Stolen Bases 4 (12)
Batting Average .271 (.270)
An owner drafting Correa at pick number 54 is going to pick up about five home runs and 16 RBI. The runs and batting average projections are nearly identical. That owner is going to lose about eight stolen bases. Clearly, while he is better than the “average” shortstop, Correa is not going to increase his fantasy team’s overall ranking compared to an average shortstop.
Ozzie Albies is no different. Here are Albies’ projections, as compared to the average:
Runs 81 (74)
Home Runs 19 (18)
RBI 80 (70)
Stolen Bases 17 (13)
Batting Average .273 (.268)
Albies will pick you up a handful of runs (projected at seven), and about 10 RBI and four stolen bases. His batting average will likely be a bit above average, and his home runs check in at or about average.
Now, let’s look at the “average” catcher, and how the average compare to Realmuto and Sanchez.
Runs 43
Home Runs 13
RBI 46
Stolen Bases 2
Batting Average .252
Realmuto
Runs 68 (43)
Home Runs 21 (13)
RBI 74 (46)
Stolen Bases 5 (2)
Batting Average .273 (.252)
Sanchez
Runs 74 (43)
Home Runs 29 (13)
RBI 82 (46)
Stolen Bases 2 (2)
Batting Average .248 (.252)
Drafting Realmuto gives a team about 25 extra runs, eight added home runs, 28 RBI and a couple of stolen bases. His team gets the advantage of a .273 average as compared to the average .252.
A team drafting Sanchez gets 31 extra runs, 16 extra home runs, and 36 additional RBI.
Not convince yet, OK, let’s look at it this way:
Correa and the average catcher compared to Realmuto and the average shortstop:
Correa + Average C / Realmuto + Average SS
Runs 125 / 146
HR 38 / 41
RBI 136 / 148
SB 6 / 17
Average .261 / .271
Albies and the average catcher compared to the average second basemen and Sanchez:
Albies + Average C / Sanchez + Average 2b
Runs 124 / 148
HR 32 / 47
RBI 126 / 152
SB 19 / 15
Average .262 / .258
The team drafting Realmuto as opposed to Correa has a 21 runs, 3 home run, 12 RBI and 11 stolen base advantage out of the gate, with a .10 combined batting average lead.
The team drafting Sanchez comes ahead of the Albies team by 24 runs, 15 home runs and 26 RBI. It loses four stolen bases and takes a very small hit in the batting average category.
Forget the names, and by all means forget everything you’ve heard about not drafting catchers in the first few rounds. It’s easier to find a solid middle infielder than it is to find a decent catcher. With that thought, position scarcity, especially at catcher, should be strongly considered.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
