By Danny Cross
As bye weeks wind down and we look toward the fantasy playoff push, it’s time to start considering handcuffing our top running backs. Or, better yet, sniping other teams’ backups in case their dudes get banged up.
Let’s consider some guys pushing their luck according to Injury Predictor, which considers expected usage, injury history and injury severity going back to college to predict the likelihood a player misses time during an upcoming season. (No player is rated 0 percent, even quarterbacks.) Unsurprisingly, running backs top the algorithm’s list of most likely to get hurt.
As such, the following backs make for worthwhile handcuffs if you own the starter or high-upside lottery tickets for the speculators among us.
Handcuff: Marlon Mack (49 percent owned)
Starter: Frank Gore (Pre-Season Injury Predictor: 60 percent)
Old Man Gore is a legend both for his neck-less headshots and for passing Eric Dickerson on the NFL’s all-time rushing list this year. But Mack has already made his presence known with three touchdowns and a gradually increasing role for a Colts team going nowhere. Mack’s 49 percent ownership tag means he’s gone in most competitive leagues, but he’s worth a trade offer — the Colts will want a better look at him as their failed season winds down, even if Gore stays healthy.
Handcuff: Matt Breida (10 percent owned)
Starter: Carlos Hyde (Pre-Season Injury Predictor: 82.3 percent)
Breida has flashed even with Hyde healthy, but recall that the Georgia Southern product racked up 49 yards on 10 carries and 22 yards through the air after taking over for an injured Hyde against the Colts in Week 5. Last week the role continue to grow for the 5-foot-11, 190-pound Breida — his nine total touches (5 carries for 17, 4 catches for 39) were his most since the Colts game.
Handcuffs: D’Onta Foreman (10 percent owned) and Alfred Blue (0 percent owned)
Starter: Lamar Miller (Pre-Season Injury Predictor: 71 percent)
Desean Watson’s ACL tear on Thursday is a huge blow to the Texans’ surprisingly explosive offense and only the latest drama to come out of Texans camp. Foreman, the bruising third rounder out of Texas, was recently demoted to third-string after skipping practice with Deandre Hopkins in protest of owner Bob McNair’s “inmates” comment. But, should Miller miss time, the 6-foot, 235-pound rookie has a lot more to offer than Alfred Blue for an offense that has quietly produced fantasy’s 12th best running back this season.
Handcuff: James Conner (3 percent owned)
Starter: Le’Veon Bell (Pre-Season Injury Predictor: 56.9 percent)
Le’Veon Bell is clearly back his old self after holding out most of the preseason — Pittsburgh’s dynamic halfback sits second in the league in both rushing and all-purpose yards. But he has also missed time in each of the past two seasons — recall that old guy DeAngelo Williams ran for more than 1,200 yards and scored 15 touchdowns for the Steelers in a backup role from 2015-16. This offense makes creative use of its backs, and Conner, a third-rounder out of Pitt, has averaged 4.9 ypc in limited action. He needs to get better in pass protection, but, if given Bell’s share of the Pittsburgh offense, Conner would be a difference-maker down the stretch.
Handcuff: Austin Ekeler (2 percent owned)
Starter: Melvin Gordon (Pre-Season Injury Predictor: 55.6%)
Melvin Gordon has checked out early during each of his first two NFL seasons just when you needed him the most — Week 14 in 2015 and Week 13 in 2016. After crossing the plane 12 times in just 13 games last year, the former Badger is again feasting in the red zone, tied for tops in the NFL with eight total TDs (four rushing, four receiving). Should the oft-injured Gordon check out early, Austin Ekeler makes for an intriguing play. The 5-foot-10, 190-pound undrafted rookie already has rushing and receiving TDs in limited work this season, and he’s getting a handful of looks per game now. Ekeler could be Philip Rivers’ new Danny Woodhead.
