I thought it would be helpful to provide some context as to where I’ll be adding value and what you can expect from these publications going forward. In the world of fantasy sports, specifically with regard to those of us immersed in both season long and DFS, analysis can be daunting. I’m as guilty as anyone of having a laser focused approach towards my DFS analysis, and missing the forest through the trees on what longer terms trends are emerging. Conversely, with so many slates to consider, it is just as problematic to miss the trees through the forest, so to speak, when failing to consider a depleted bullpen or a lineup shuffle unlocking DFS value.
Before the season has started and before even any spring training games have been played is a particularly interesting time to attempt baseball analysis. It is the time when there is likely the largest gap between what we think we know and what we actually know. Much will change, and we will be wrong about a lot. Lineup spots, bullpen roles, rotation spots, injuries, prospect call-up dates, COVID postponements… there’s never been an era of sports in which having an anti-fragile approach can be beneficial to the fantasy enthusiast.
Plenty of analysts talk about that- but what does it actually mean to embrace anti-fragility when it comes to fantasy baseball? To me, it means different things with respect to season long and DFS, even if the overall concept is the same.
In season long, we still want to bet on sure things with our prized, early draft picks from whom we expect reliable production, but should be very aggressive in targeting high variance/risk/reward type players in later rounds. There’s little to no value in getting an expected level of production from a late round pick, so why not increase your risk tolerance since the penalty for getting poor production is so much lower? I know this seems like a simple concept, but applying it systematically and correctly measuring player risk profiles is a lot more difficult than it sounds.
In DFS, the application is similar, but distinct. Instead of scarcity, we must think in abundance. You and your competition can each make every roster decision imaginable, so the profit lies in figuring out where you can profit most when others are at once in agreement with one another, and wrong. Living in the margins isn’t always easy or comfortable, but it is where the big bucks are made.
That will be a big part of what we try to accomplish in these parts. Help you get comfortable with getting uncomfortable. One of the things I enjoy most about fantasy sports is that there is always more to learn, always new approaches to consider.
I would like to sincerely thank you for reading and considering mine.
