FSTA Pitching Paranoia

We are nearly finished with the first five rounds of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) Experts Draft, sponsored by Sirius-XM and hosted by our friends at RealTime Sports.

The FSTA league is no slouch competition, with the likes of Rick Wolf, Glenn Colton, Stacie Stern, Steve Gardner, Derek Van Riper, Howard Kaman, Ray Flowers, Charlie Wiegart, Vlad Sedler, Howard Bender, and former MLB GM Jim Bowden among the combatants.

There are 14 teams in the 5X5, who are completing roughly six rounds of the snake set-up prior to meeting in Los Angeles for the annual FSTA Winter Soiree.

As of now we are just beginning the sixth round, and after grabbing Aaron Nola (5.13) and then Craig Kimbrel (6.2) I was wondering just how many hurlers had been taken. More to the point, I wondered if that number was atypical, so I did a little checking, comparing the percentage of pitchers selected under the following parameters.

• The FSTA through five rounds with 14 teams.
• The average NFBC through five rounds with 15 teams.
• Two magazine mocks through five rounds with 12 teams.
• Two magazine mocks through five rounds with 15 teams.

Here is what the results and breakdowns look like:

To start, Kenley Jansen is the reliever selected where only one was taken and is one of four from the NFBC, and of course Clayton Kershaw has been the first pitcher selected

Perhaps the most interesting configuration within any of these leagues, though, were the selection of Max Scherzer and then Cory Kluber with picks 1.14 and 2.1, respectively. In fact, that bold  move by Rick Wolf and Glenn Colton made me wonder about this in the first place, for I thought that nab at the wheel might cause an earlier run on hurlers.

Of course, my thought did prove to be incorrect as you can see. But the thought puts a bunch of possible ways to play the game/draft from now on out, both later in the month in the City of Angels and as the mock season progresses to see if there is really an efficient way to manage pitching without really sacrificing much on hitting.

To start, my FSTA first-round selection was Kershaw, but I didn’t expect to go this route. I am trying hard to build a base of real power and I thought/hoped/imagined that Giancarlo Stanton would fall to me, thinking Joey Votto or Carlos Correa if the new Yankees outfielder was gone.

As it turned out, after Stanton’s selection, Votto and Correa were the next pair snatched and suddenly I had an unexpected shot at the best hurler of them all, and that is when Rick and Glenn made their move with Kluber and Scherzer.

I had hoped to grab Robbie Ray as my first pitcher, no later than the fifth round, but with Kershaw, suddenly my route changed. Since Greg Ambrosius took Ray with pick 4.9, it might have been fortuitous that the Dodger lefty fell to me, but then I started thinking about how to manage my pitching on out, for surely the idea with Kershaw is to build a staff to complement.

My second pick was Jose Ramirez, and for selections three and four I took Khris Davis (back-to-back 40 homer years is to be taken seriously) and Anthony Rendon (55 point jump in OBP to .403 is for real, I think) the question became just how long to wait for another arm?

Originally, I thought hitters had to be my target till maybe round seven, riding the strength of Kershaw’s numbers to still assemble a strong, if not dominant, staff.

However, by waiting till rounds 7 and 8 for a second arm, the bulk of second-tier hurlers I favor would largely be gone, and in this league I had to think about selecting a closer by those rounds as well.

I reasoned that first base and shortstop were deep enough with the likes of Ryon Healy or Marcus Semien likely available in the 15th round. Similarly, I was willing to wait on catcher, meaning for the most part outfielders and pitchers were indeed what I could draft to for now, since I had second and third well covered between Rendon and Ramirez.

So I surprised myself by taking Nola and Kimbrel on the premise that a main closer I have, along with a pair of starters. There is still depth at outfield I can exploit next. Similarly, taking Kimbrel before round 7 — which is when closers begin coming off the board — should leave some good power/speed hitters out there for my next selections.

From there I can flesh out, selectively collecting pitchers targeted at specific spots who will be the right combo to make the potential Kershaw pitching numbers at  least provide some dominance on the hill, leaving enough pop to make a difference.

Tune into the Tout Wars Hour on the FNTSY network, hosted by me, with Justin Mason and featuring Lord Z. every Sunday at 11 AM PT/2 PM ET beginning January 14.

And, you can follow me @lawrmichaels.

That made