Week 13 is the last matchup before the fantasy playoffs in most leagues and therefore is critical for aspirational GMs. The standings reset in the playoffs and anything can happen, so don’t sweat it if you sneak in as a six seed. In this all-important week, a number of less obvious options delivered, especially at quarterback, and paid dividends for savvy GMs who inserted them into lineups.
Upside Down Quarterbacks
In a surprising development, each of the top seven quarterbacks were started in less than a third of ESPN leagues with Ryan Tannehill being the only one currently in the top ten at the position. Tannehill threw for 389 yards and 3 touchdowns in achieving 27.6 points and is easily the best option of the group moving forward thanks to a favorable schedule. Leading the position is Derek Carr who rebounded with 31.7 points on 381 yards and 3 total touchdowns but isn’t a strong option moving forward due to Las Vegas’ schedule. Baker Mayfield passed for 334 yards, 4 touchdowns and 29.5 points but has two difficult matchups ahead against the Ravens and Giants.
The remainder of the bunch is Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Taysom Hill and Cam Newton with Hill being the best option next week (if Drew Brees remains out). 23.6 points on 309 total yards and 2 scores raises his average to 21.8 FPPG in three starts this year and the entire New Orlean’s offense is run through him, similar to the situation in Baltimore when Lamar Jackson first took over.
The one big stinker performance this week was Justin Herbert, who scored only 4.4 points on 209 yards and 2 interceptions. Bill Belichick remains undefeated against rookie QBs as Herbert completed fewer than half of his 53 attempts and compiled a horrendous 8.8 QBR. That being said, Herbert should remain in line ups as a date with Atlanta’s 31st ranked pass defense is on par next week.
Familiar Backs with a Few Surprises
Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and James Robinson are RBs 2-4 this week while David Montgomery is the position’s leader with 27.1 points on 21 touches for 111 total yards and 2 touchdowns. Montgomery has 25 points in consecutive weeks but games against the bottom two ranked run defenses in Detroit and Green Bay is more telling than the sophomore’s growth as Chicago’s inefficient offense limits Montgomery’s upside. He remains near the bottom of the RB2 tier.
Jonathan Taylor is fifth with 22.5 points on the day behind 16 touches for 135 total yards and a TD and the promising rookie looks to be back on track. Start Taylor with confidence next week as he faces a Raider’s defense that was just shredded for 206 rushing yards and more than 6 YPC by the Jets. Speaking of New York’s backs, Ty Johnson stepped in early for an injured Frank Gore and received 22 carries for 104 yards, a TD and 19.7 points. Backup Josh Adams performed well too but the number of touches granted to Johnson makes him a must add if Frank Gore misses next week.
For the second straight week Cam Akers has led Los Angeles’ backfield in fantasy points and the rookie received 21 carries compared to 6 combined from Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. After disappointing early, Akers is available in 65% of ESPN leagues and should be the number one waiver add.
Three of the consensus top 14 running backs entering the season had extremely disappointing weeks. Leading the way is Clyde Edwards-Helaire who was announced as active early Sunday yet didn’t play a snap and was started in 74.2% of leagues. The rookie is now averaging 12.7 FPPG, less than the likes of Nyheim Hines, Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis, which no one could have imagined coming into the year. Miles Sanders was efficient early on but has only scored a combined 9.3 points in the last two weeks and is averaging nine touches. It appears defenses are stacking the box and daring Carson Wentz to throw while negative game script has led to more playing time for Boston Scott.
Derrick Henry’s 5.9 points is a huge let down but isn’t exactly unexpected as it’s his third game this season in single digits. Rostering Henry means living with the highs and lows.
Upside Receivers Cash in
Of the 12 receivers to score 20 points this week, only three were started in more than 50% of leagues which illustrates the ability to find a start-worthy player. That doesn’t mean it’s easy or obvious, as the leading scorer is Corey Davis with 35.2 on 11/182/1. The former number five overall pick has scored double digit points in all but one game this season and is a weekly flex option. Following Davis are Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson, both of whom are no brainer starts. Jefferson is in the midst of a four-game stretch averaging 23.1 FPPG and should be treated as a high end WR2 while Adams is the best receiver in fantasy football. This pair along with Adam Thielen are the three universally started players in the top 12.
Marvin Jones and TY Hilton both disappointed early but have gotten back on track in recent weeks. Jones has seen double digit targets in three of the last four weeks and should be in all line ups for as long as Kenny Golladay is out. 54% of Hilton’s production has come in the last two weeks, which is really saying something given he’s played 11 games, and it appears a connection with Phillip Rivers has finally materialized. Grab Hilton if he’s available in your league. Will Fuller’s suspension has opened the door for Keke Coutee, who scored 22.1 on 8/141/0. The potential has always been there, and he should be added in all leagues given the more consistent role. Excluding last week’s quarterback-less game, Tim Patrick now has eight games with double digit points compared to only one without since week 3. He’s Denver’s number one option and should be on the radar in all leagues. A name to monitor in extremely deep leagues is Chad Hansen, who had 7 targets for 5/101/0 in his Texans debut. The team is without Fuller, Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb so Hansen along with Coutee and Brandin Cooks are the only options out wide.
Most of the widely started receivers had solid weeks, with Keenan Allen and Devante Parker being the exceptions. The Charger’s entire offense was horrendous as they were shutout and Allen still received 11 targets in reaching 9.8 points on 5 catches for 48 yards and he should still be viewed as a low end WR1. Parker scored 7.5 on 4 catches for 35 yards and should only be in lineups when Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for Miami.
