Welcome to my inaugural column for CREATiVESPORTS. The focus will be on the high stakes arena, most notably the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, but I’ll dabble in other contests like The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational.
Today’s discussion will review a quartet of hitters with favorable ADPs. The ADP data drawn from 15 drafts that ended between Feb 14th and 28th, 2022. Format is 15 team 5×5 standard rotisserie snake draft and hold of 50 players. No FAB or Trading.
Yordan Alvarez – ADP 28
It wouldn’t be surprising if Alvarez finishes the year inside the top 10 in hitting, which is incredible value around pick 30. He stands at 6-feet-5 and weighs in at 225 pounds, definitely a desirable frame for a budding power hitter. At 24 years old Alvarez is coming off a season where he hit .277 with 33 home runs and 104 RBI. He also raked in his first year, winning the AL rookie award for 2019. Why are more people not buying earlier in Round 2? There are still concerns about his surgically repaired knees which caused him to miss almost all of 2020. Alvarez also does not contribute to the speed category, which most people are targeting in the first few rounds of this format. With the adoption of the DH in the NL, Alvarez will be on the field less for inter-league games. This, combined with him playing a full season last year, helps alleviate the injury worry.
There is a legitimate chance here of 50 homers and a .280 average. At such a young age it is great to see Alvarez hit well from both sides of the plate, in terms of contact and power. He was in the top 10 last year in terms of Barrels/PA% at 10.5 and average exit velocity at 93.2 Mph, so he is making good hard contact. The 33 homers last season were lower than his xHR of 37.9, another reason to expect more. I am all in on Alvarez in the middle of Round 2 as a strong four category contributor with an obvious knack for hitting dingers.
Jonathan India (and friends) – ADP 85
With no agreement between MLB and the MLBPA as well as the lack of player news in recent months, draft champions ADP has been a lot more stable than past years. A sticky clump of second basemen has formed in drafts between Round 5 and 6 over a span of about 20 picks. There are other names in the group, however the five I prefer to target are: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (ADP 71), Jorge Polanco (79), Tommy Edman (82), Ketel Marte (84), and Jonathan India (85). I find I am often taking one of these five as my starting second baseman.
To begin with, the dual eligible four are intriguing: Chisholm Jr, Polanco, Edman and Marte. If you’re looking for batting average here Marte is a good option. Edman swipes the most bags. Chisholm also has the desirable power/speed combo however is likely a batting average liability. He may have the most risk for extreme upside or downside with a high projection volatility. Then we get to India and Polanco who both supply all five hitting categories which is an extremely appealing offering at this point in the draft. The two had some strange similarities last season, matching in batting average (.269) and coming close in max exit velocity (110.2,110.0). I do like Polanco and am happy to get him here at second, or shortstop.
More on the main target: Jonathan India. Selected fifth overall in 2018, India won Rookie of the Year like the formerly mentioned Alvarez. Despite skipping Triple-A, he managed to do a lot of things well in his first year. He showed pop in the bat swatting 21 homers and good sprint speed at 28.5 Mph, helping him steal 12 times. India is also an amazingly patient hitter with a good ability to lay off pitches outside the zone. He was 15th in O-swing% last season immediately behind Joey Votto and Chris Taylor. I think this points to the batting average coming up a little bit to the .275 mark. Despite his ADP being near the end of the group I like him more than the other players listed above and am happy to reach a little for him. I think his ADP will rise as we move closer to opening day, so you may have to consider this to get him. Keep in mind if you’re also keen on any of the other four mentioned there is flexibility to get them into your build as well with their dual eligibility.
Willy Adames – ADP 122
Shortstop is deep, so it is often preferable to fill the other infield spots in the first several rounds. By the time Round 8 rolls around, if your starting shortstop is unfilled, Adames is a great option. After being traded from Tampa Bay, he assumed the starting shortstop job for the Brewers and hit .285 with 20 homers, 58 RBI and four steals in 413 plate appearances. This was a huge improvement over his disappointing start to the year where he was colder than a polar bears toenail, hitting 0.197 in 142 plate appearances. For the season, he had a hard hit rate of 44.7%, good for 41st among qualified hitters. He was also 49th with 7.0 barrels/PA%. As the 26-year old enters his power peak, it is reasonable to expect a rise in home runs to about 30 and batting average around .260. Add in the expected six or seven steals and 70 or so each in runs and RBI totals, it is clear he is a fine selection.
Jesus Sanchez – ADP 223
Ideally by pick about 200, or Round 14, one has a good base of steals and batting average. That way it is defendable to always have Sanchez topping the draft queue. The 24 year old was crushing the ball in Triple-A last year with a .348 average and 10 home runs in 155 plate appearances before being called up. In 251 plate appearances in the bigs, he mashed 14 home runs and had an acceptable .251 average. Out of his 14 home runs, 12 of them were no doubters, meaning they would have gone out in all 30 stadiums. He also hit eight in September. If he had played enough to qualify, his barrel rate of 12.7% would have ranked him in the top 30 around names like Matt Olson, J.D. Martinez and Mitch Haniger. Look to Sanchez for 25 plus home runs with a reduction in strikeout percentage in his first full season as he continues to fine tune his approach and hit the ball violently.
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