Football Hotpage – Week Eleven – A Week of Expected Scoring Parity

Twelve of the 22 teams on the DraftKings Sunday main slate have expected totals between 19 and 22 points.  The Patriots and Saints lead the way with expected totals of 29, meaning a Patriots stack would likely be Brady-Gronk and your choice of a RB (Burkhead, Lewis, and White are all on the cheap side).

A Saints stack is much harder.  Do they stick with the solid run game and go Ingram-Kamara stack or will Sean Peyton and Co.  pass a little more opening up a Brees-Thomas-Ginn stack?  I expect all of those players to be owned far and wide this week.

For this week I am focusing on some players who I think will go overlooked this week.  To stay away from the Patriots game, I plan to play some early slate contests.  When I built my original lineup, I found that seven or my nine players were on the early slate.  Travis Kelce and Sterling Shepard appear to be the most obvious “must-plays” this week.

QB Tom Brady NE 7400 GOAT with highest team total
QB Alex Smith KC 6700 Great spot vs. helpless Giants
QB Matthew Stafford DET 6600 Nice string of high scores
QB Kirk Cousins WAS 6100 Expected to play from behind in game with high total
QB Jay Cutler MIA 5400 Interesting cheap gamble
QB Joe Flacco BAL 4900 Even cheaper gamble against horrific GB secondary
RB Todd Gurley II LAR 8400 Very high floor in this spot
RB Mark Ingram NO 8100 Splitting carries is always a risk
RB Kareem Hunt KC 8000 Still very high salary but who can argue with matchup
RB LeSean McCoy BUF 7800 Buffalo making a change at QB
RB Alvin Kamara NO 7500 See Ingram, but $600 cheaper
RB Jordan Howard CHI 6200 Seeing a lot of touches but high score is TD dependent
RB Kenyan Drake MIA 4800 Two solid games since Ajayi trade.  Still cheap
RB James White NE 4700 Sharing touches with Lewis and Burkhead
RB Duke Johnson Jr. CLE 4400 Cheap pass catching option
RB Theo Riddick DET 4100 Even cheaper pass catching option
RB Rex Burkhead NE 3600 Head coach is a big fan
RB Gio Bernard CIN 3000 Cheapest pass catching option on the card
WR Mike Evans TB 7900 Expect to return from suspension with a chip
WR DeVante Parker MIA 6500 Deep threat against poor defense
WR Jarvis Landry MIA 6400 Short threat against poor defense
WR Sterling Shepard NYG 6300 Now a target-monster for bad team
WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 6100 Savage is force-feeding targets to Hopkins
WR Robert Woods LAR 6000 Hottest mid-price option around
WR Amari Cooper OAK 6000 Underdog in highest Vegas total
WR Michael Crabtree OAK 5900 See Coopers
WR Marvin Jones Jr. DET 5600 Much cheaper option than Tate
WR Marqise Lee JAX 5500 Even better option without Hurns
WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 5200 $600 savings from DT
WR Ted Ginn Jr. NO 4800 Need to have a NO receiver on the list
WR Jeremy Maclin BAL 4500 I dislike Ravens receivers, but interesting vs. GB
WR Dontrelle Inman CHI 3200 Near min-price should cover price easily
TE Travis Kelce KC 7300 TE against Giants pencil in the numbers
TE Rob Gronkowski NE 7200 Good spot for Gronk
TE Evan Engram NYG 6000 Gets the targets that do not go to Shepard
TE Vernon Davis WAS 4600 Cheap option with Reed out
TE Jermaine Gresham ARI 2800 Better option now with all the QB changes
DST Jaguars JAX 4000 Anyone against Cleveland
DST Chiefs KC 3300 Giants are bad
DST Bengals CIN 3000 Denver with major QB problem
DST Dolphins MIA 2800 They have to show some pride, don’t they?
DST Rams LAR 2400 Price drop?  Why?
Main Slate
QB Jay Cutler MIA 5400
RB Todd Gurley II LAR 8400
RB Kenyan Drake MIA 4800
WR Jarvis Landry MIA 6400
WR Sterling Shepard NYG 6300
WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 5200
RB Rex Burkhead NE 3600
TE Travis Kelce KC 7300
DST Rams LAR 2400
49800
Early Sunday Slate
QB Jay Cutler MIA 5400
RB Todd Gurley II LAR 8400
RB Kenyan Drake MIA 4800
WR Jarvis Landry MIA 6400
WR Sterling Shepard NYG 6300
WR Marvin Jones Jr. DET 5600
WR Dontrelle Inman CHI 3200
TE Travis Kelce KC 7300
DST Rams LAR 2400
49800

Follow Marc @MastersballMarc.

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