This week I looked for players who are capable of vastly outperforming their current ADPs based off one particular metric: weighted on-base percentage. The point is to compare the draft-day price with the potential for these guys to reproduce last year’s success — and to consider how it might affect their fantasy value.
Why wOBA? This particular calculation hones in on offensive performance more specifically than stats like average, on-base percentage, and OPS — a double is more than twice as good as a single, for instance. Fangraphs considers wOBA superior as an all-around measure of offensive output. Last year’s top five wOBA finishers were a who’s who of fantasy’s best performers :
We could do this from any number of stats and rankings, but last year’s wOBA demonstrates that these players have already produced at an elite level. It’s up to us to determine whether they can do it again and how the fantasy stats might follow.
wOBA rank: 9 | Current NFBC ADP: 86.8
The Dodgers third baseman has the highest upside of this group but the second-highest price tag. Still, one year after finishing with the league’s ninth-best wOBA, Turner is being taken as the eighth 3B off the board. Compared to 2016, Turner raised his walk rate from 7.7% to 10.9% while dramatically reducing his strikeout rate from 17.2% to 10.3%. The results speak for themselves: a .322/.415/.530 line with 21 home runs, 71 RBI and 7 stolen bases in 130 games. Durability is an issue — he’s played 109, 125, 151 and 130 games the past four seasons — but we actually might not have seen Turner at his best yet.
wOBA rank: 11 | Current NFBC ADP: 61.0
A popular early-round pick slotting in at OF18 right now, Pham broke out during his age 29 season with 23 home runs, 73 RBI, 95 runs and 25 stolen bases over just 128 games. Pham’s .368 BABIP suggests some regression for his .306 batting average (as does his his 22% strikeout rate), but he avoids soft contact and walks at a reasonable clip. What Pham will likely lose in average and power (his 26.7 HR/FB% is also unsustainable), he just might make up for in counting stats with a full season atop a solid St. Louis lineup. Still, pick 61 is a high price to pay for what might have been a career year.
wOBA rank: 20 | Current NFBC ADP: 114.6
I’m all about players with multi-position eligibility, especially in daily transactions leagues. And Gonzalez’s 2017 numbers offer a lot to like about his potential to keep it going. The switch hitter doubled his walk rate over the previous two seasons and dramatically increased his flyball rate, so even if his 18.2 HR/FB% is on the high side, he’s lifting the ball more than ever. Depending on your league settings, Gonzalez could be eligible at every position but catcher. In 134 games last year, the 28-year-old produced a .303/23/67/90/8 line, which more than plays as a part-time starter across every position on your roster.
wOBA rank: 27 | Current NFBC ADP: 189.8
Garcia’s 2017 numbers look strikingly similar to those of Gonzalez: 136 games, 18 home runs, 75 runs, 80 RBI and 5 SBs. But his walk rate was around half of Marwin’s and his .330 average was swollen by a .392 BABIP (his previous two BABIP tallies were .309 and .320). Garcia has also always been a heavy ground ball hitter, though he does hit the ball hard and for two seasons has had a solid HR/FB%. This might sound like a cop-out, but let’s project him for a slightly above average AVG and OPS but the same counting stats over 20 more games (with upside — he’s only 26). Not bad around pick 190.
wOBA rank: 30 | Current NFBC ADP: 146.7
What to make of a former first-round pick who breaks out at age 30 after six years in the bigs? Essentially, the switch hitter says he stopped trying to be a power hitter and focused on becoming a tougher out. Is he Joey Votto 2.0? Not exactly, but reducing his K-rate by 12 percentage points (to just below league average) allowed his strengths to shine through — namely, an elite hard-hit rate (two years running) and lots of fly balls. Smoak’s .270/38/85/90 line was backed by a below-average .285 BABIP. The first baseman’s second half decline — .240 average, with power — is a question mark, but there’s upside here as your draft hits the teen rounds.
Honorable mention:
wOBA rank: 15 | Current NFBC ADP: 225.4
Regularly misses time, regularly performs as a top 10 shortstop. Solid MI pick in deeper leagues.
wOBA rank: 17 | Current NFBC ADP: 124.0
Who would have expected a 36/90/108 line at age 32? Hard to see him staying healthy and/or maintaining an otherworldly 26.5 HR/FB%.
wOBA rank: 29 | Current NFBC ADP: 73.7
Milwaukee’s outfield depth has clouded his outlook. Someone’s going to accidentally take Santana too early, unless Ryan Braun moves to the infield during spring training.
Follow me on Twitter @_dannycross_
