Ever since I started playing fantasy baseball nearly thirty years ago, I always wanted the first overall pick in the draft. Whether it was Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., or Alex Rodriguez, there was always a player I coveted more than any other. In recent years, that player has been Mike Trout, whose consistent excellence makes him as close to a sure thing as one can find in a fantasy baseball draft.
This year, I finally drew the first overall pick, and I promptly traded it away for the third slot. My league is a twelve-team league with a snake draft, so the team with the first overall pick drafts first in odd-numbered rounds and last in even-numbered rounds, while the team with the third overall pick drafts third in odd-numbered rounds and tenth in even-numbered rounds.
Why, you may ask, would I trade away the chance to draft Ronald Acuna Jr., with his 40-homer, 30-steal potential atop a powerhouse Braves offense; or Fernando Tatis Jr., who could well put up similar numbers from the shortstop slot; or Mookie Betts, who seems like a safe bet to hit 30 homers and steal 25 bases, while leading off for arguably the best lineup in baseball? For one thing, there are three of those guys, so I can get one of them with the third pick.
For another, my league is an OBP league, which increases the value of Trout (15% career walk rate) and Juan Soto (17% career walk rate), both of whom are likely to sport OBPs north of .400, relative to the freer-swinging Acuna Jr. (11%) (albeit 19% in last year’s small sample), Tatis Jr. (9%), and Betts (10%). In an OBP league, there are at least five hitters who could reasonably be chosen first overall, and a case could also be made for Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole.
Finally, I prefer not to pick at either end of the draft. Many fantasy baseball managers like drafting at “the turn,” where they can sometimes control the trajectory of the ensuing round. For example, drafting a pair of closers at the turn will often start a “run” on closers, ensuring that the turn-drafter lands two quality closers while the rest of the league scrambles for leftovers. The same holds for other positions with a relative dearth of quality options: 2B/MI, for example, or catchers in two-catcher leagues. Some managers also employ the “pocket aces” strategy of drafting two stud pitchers at the turn between rounds 1 and 2, or between rounds 2 and 3, in the hope of dominating in wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.
But I don’t like drafting at the turn. I find it challenging to have two picks ready simultaneously, especially when the managers drafting right before me snipe multiple players from my queue. If I don’t have two picks ready for the turn, I end up rushing to identify the second player quickly after drafting the first, and often end up with the dreaded “auto-pick,” courtesy of our draft provider. More often than not, the auto-pick will end up being a recently injured player whom the draft provider hasn’t yet gotten around to downgrading in its default rankings. (Here’s a tip: where the option is available, put injured players you don’t want to draft on a “do not draft” list, so you won’t end up auto-picking them if you run out of time for your selection.) The third pick provides a cushion of at least four picks between selections, which gives me more time to recover when my queue gets decimated.
Drafting first or last in a 12-team league also means that when you’re not drafting at the turn, you have to wait an excruciating 23 picks between selections. Moving toward the middle of the draft reduces the chance that you’ll be completely shut out by a run on closers or another position of need. Although the difference between drafting first and third is not huge in this regard, it does shorten the interval from 23 picks to 19, and every little bit helps.
If you were lucky enough to draw the top slot in your draft, consider trading down. I doubt you will have any trouble finding managers who are eager to trade places with you, as most managers, in my experience, find the first overall pick highly desirable. While it would be nice to be able to draft Acuna Jr. and his 40-30 potential, I’m comfortable with my decision to trade away the first overall pick. I’ll still end up with a top hitter who could well match Acuna Jr.’s production (or possibly even Acuna Jr. himself, depending on how things play out), while reducing the likelihood of panic picks or auto-picks at the turn.
