With four mixed leagues and one of two NL-only auctions in the books, it’s time to take a look around the rosters to see who will ultimately determine my fantasy baseball performance this year.
I’m typically open to any route during the early rounds, balancing floor with upside and an eye toward nabbing a few stolen bases early. This year, I’ve been grabbing a starter in the second round in most leagues — things just get too ugly for the middle tier facing today’s free-swinging sluggers.
It’s the middle rounds where I start to see the fruits of offseason research — and what I perceive to be value at ADP — come to fruition. Let’s take a look around my rosters and justify heavy investment in certain dudes.
Elvis Andrus | March ADP: 185
This was my favorite play of the year. The 30-year-old shortstop suffered a lost season after being plunked in the elbow last April and missing two months. So drafters are looking in their queue at an ugly 53/6/33/5 line and .256 average over 97 games in 2018. But click on past that to 2017 when Andrus put it all together: .297/.337/.471 with 20 home runs, 88 RBI, 25 steals and 100 runs.
Andrus was leading the Rangers with a .327 average over the first couple weeks of 2018 before the broken elbow. And this spring has been more of the same: a .432 average, 1.045 OPS with a homer and nine RBI over 40 plate appearances. Strangely, Andrus’ ADP fell five spots during March drafts compared to those that took place Jan. 1-Feb. 28.
One reason I’ve honed in on Andrus so hard is because stolen bases are such a problem these days. In comparing ADP with Rotowire’s season-long projections, there are precious few players providing reliable steals who are actually worthy of their ADP — and they’re almost all early-rounders. Jean Segura is worth his sixth-round price tag in 12 teamers, and Tommy Pham appears to be worth his fifth. Ozzie Albies is close, and Victor Robles offers a lot of upside with bankable steals.
But Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pollock, Lorenzo Cain and Wil Myers are all overpays based on this exercise. Then we get to the post-150 landscape and I’m looking at a middle of the order hitter who we can bank for 20 stolen bases — at the MI spot or even UTIL — with the potential for a lot more. Andrus even yacked a homer among three hits on Opening Day. I’m expecting a final line similar to 2017 because — why not?
Rougned Odor | March ADP: 118
Sticking with the Rangers, Odor saw plenty of hype this spring after heating up in the second half of 2018 when the second sacker hit .266 over 62 games with 12 homers, 39 RBI, 44 runs and seven steals with an .801 OPS. Odor has had stretches like this before — he’s already put up two 30/10 seasons — and he’s only 25. I’m all in around pick 100.
(Honorable mention, Rangers edition: Nomar Mazara. Cleanup hitter, big talent, high upside.)
Robinson Cano | March ADP: 117
I didn’t feel comfortable paying up for Jose Altuve this year with injury news nagging a player coming off offseason surgery. Plus, I had Odor and Cano to fall back on.
The well-paid veteran is slated to hit third in a solid Mets lineup, and his 2018 second half was exactly what we expect from one of this generation’s most professional hitters. If you’re wondering whether the 36-year-old can replicate last year’s 44/10/50/0 line and .303 average (80 games) over a full season, just take a jaunt down Cano’s Baseball Reference page — it’s nuts.
Cano is a durable run producer with a .305 career average — and he qualifies at first in Yahoo leagues. Sign me up.
Carlos Santana | March ADP: 193
Drafting Carlos Santana can feel sooo boring. He’s unlikely to score 100 runs or hit 30 homers or drive in 100, and the average is will probably be around .250. But he comes really close in all three of these counting stat categories — and he’s really consistent. An 80/25/80 line is a near certainty, and he even chips in a handful of bags per year.
Analysts have lamented the weaker than usual collection of first basemen in 2019. Yet Santana has been an afterthought after putting up eight straight similarly productive seasons. The 32-year-old might be boring, but he will do just find around pick 200.
Jose Alvarado | March ADP: 161
If we agree that first base is a wasteland, just look at the closer market. Once the first 10 or 12 are gone, it’s basically a free for all. But Alvarado has a number of things going for him, while his ADP contemporaries have more serious question marks.
Alvarado finished last season in the closer’s chair, nailing down eight saves and finishing an excellent sophomore season with a 2.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. The lefty throws gas — he averaged 97.3 mph with his sinker last year — and struck out 11.25/9. So… what else are we looking for? He throws super hard, strikes guys out and is in line to get saves, no matter how coy Rays manager Kevin Cash wants to be about it.
Let us recall that in 2016 and 2017 Alex Colome saved 84 games for the Rays. This is a good team that will have plenty of leads to protect, and Alvarado’s main competition for saves appears to be young Diego Castillo, who will probably also function as an opener. Alvarado has a clear route to 30 saves, which would come at a massive discount considering his skills.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
