The fantasy season is quickly approaching which means player news is everywhere, injuries are happening and ADPs are adjusting. In this edition of Sizzle/ Fizzle we take a look into the fantasy stock market and see which player values are heating up and which have completely cooled down.
Sizzle Candidates:
Alex Collins – 38 Overall – RB19 – Baltimore Ravens
We have never been super high on Alex Collins. There is certainly upside with this pick, it just doesn’t feel like an upside pick when you’re leaving the draft. Collins posted over 1,100 total yards and reached pay dirt 6 times in 2017. The Ravens did not draft a running back nor did they sign one in Free Agency. The only realistic competition Collins has for touches is coming from Kenneth Dixon who showed flashes of excellence at times but has mainly disappointed by constantly missing time due to injury and suspension. Kenneth Dixon now has a hamstring injury which can often linger into the regular season. Those injuries can be debilitating and this would leave Collins with a stranglehold on this backfield. The Ravens have a strong defense and improved weapons in the passing game. This means positive game scripts and more scoring opportunities. It’s time to realize that Collins is an upside pick and his draft day price tag makes him a value in 2018.
Lamar Miller – 50 Overall – RB23 – Houston Texans
Let’s face it, nobody wants to draft Lamar Miller. Everyone has owned him at one point in his career and over the past three seasons he has disappointed based on his draft cost. Miller has been known to be ineffective, inefficient and overall lacks the potential to completely take over a game. We are able to say all of those negative attributes about him and still tout him as a great draft pick this season. He is on an improved offense with a young superstar quarterback and has absolutely no competition for touches. Alfred Blue is the only other notable rusher on this team and is a less efficient rusher and can’t even compare to Miller in the passing game. The main detractor for potential Miller owners is D’onta Foreman who looked much more explosive than any other back on this team. Unfortunately he ruptured his Achilles on November 19th. Everyone is quick to put on the rose colored lenses for Foreman’s recovery but in reality this is an 11 month recovery on average. 31 players suffered this injury historically. Of the 31 just 21 returned (64%). Those that did return saw a significant reduction in games played, game speed and power ratings. The math is simple… Foreman likely won’t be back until October and when he does return he is unlikely to see high volume or be more effective on his touches. Miller holds immense value at this stage of the offseason so grab him fast before people come to their senses.
David Njoku – 146 Overall – TE13 – Cleveland Browns
Everyone wanted to draft the rookie tight ends last season. We told you not to. History has shown that rookie tight ends never pay off for fantasy. Evan Engram beat the odds but that was only due to every receiver on that team going down with injury. All 3 of the top receivers on that team were down simultaneously… For five weeks… Rookie TE’s are a bad investment but recency bias has people believing the same tight ends that disappointed last season are going to disappoint again this season. We knew there was a learning curve going into the NFL and when these rookies came in last season we also knew these players were future super stars. Now is the time to buy. Jimmy Graham went from 356 yards and 5 TDs his rookie season to 1,310 yards and 11 TDs his sophomore campaign. There is a ton of upside with this pick. David Njoku was first in the league at the tight end position in his catch rate on catchable deep targets. The waters are also super murky when it comes to Josh Gordons availability. “Flash” is not attending training camp and with his track record that’s cause for concern. Who stands to gain the most from Gordon missing time? Most would say Landry but in reality it’s Njoku. The big bodied red zone threat stands to be a main contributor on this team if anything happens to Gordon. This low risk investment has a real shot at paying off in 2018.
Fizzle Candidates:
Rashaad Penny – 48 Overall – RB22 – Seattle Seahawks
This offensive Line is bad, real bad. This defense is also terrible. It’s always best to target running backs that have positive game scripts. Its hard to imagine Seattle is in a position to run 70% of the plays in the 4th quarter. It’s even harder to imagine them being efficient rushing behind that putrid offensive line. It appears this team is going to be strongest relying on Wilsons mobility and arm but Rashaad Penny’s draft price keeps increasing. Most recently, reports have come out that Chris Carson has looked to be the better back and could start the season leading this backfield. Don’t buy in to that. Carson may look better but no sane coaching staff will sit their first round pick. That would indicate they wasted their pick and no front office can ever admit they are wrong. It will be Penny’s job to lose though and unlike Carson, Penny hasn’t proven he can rush behind a bad offensive line.
Adam Thielen – 29 Overall – WR12 – Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota’s offense will be electrifying this season. Between Cousins, Cook, Rudolph, Diggs and Thielen, there are simply too many weapons to fail. Unfortunately that won’t help Adam Thielen. Cousins spreads the ball around as good as any quarterback in the league and last season Thielen impressed with his high volume in the passing game ranking 9th in total targets at the receiver position. That simply will not happen with Cousins at quarterback. Cousins’ most targeted receiver in the past 4 years has had 110 total targets and has dipped as low as 96. Even if we project Thielen out at garnering Cousin’s 3 year high for targets (110), that still leaves him under 1,000 receiving yards. Remember Washington had a terrible defense. They weren’t running late in games. This Vikings team won’t be down two scores in the 4th quarter. They have the luxury of feeding Cook and Murray in the final minutes of the game.
The Entire Buffalo Bills Offense
With the murky suspension situation surrounding McCoy to the lack of weapons in the receiving game, this team is in trouble. They very well may be the worst team in football and the concerns run deeper than the rushers and receivers. The team has Josh Allen, A.J. McCarron and Nathan Peterman at the quarterback position. Nathan Peterman threw 5 picks in one half of a game, A.J. McCarron couldn’t even beat out ANDY DALTON and Josh Allen is so inaccurate he is consistently overthrowing screen passes! This team is a mess and everyone should steer clear. The only player to even consider touching is Kelvin Benjamin who also has massively disappointed throughout his career. Benjamin does however, have a bad defense which could lead to some garbage time points. Staying healthy is another question.
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