I’ve always found it strange that All-Star Game selections, which are based only on the first three months of the season, are taken so seriously when reflecting on a player’s career achievements. What about the second half? Shouldn’t there be second-half All-Star teams? Actually, thanks to recency bias, the second half is the half that we remember the most by year’s end, so much so that it’s not uncommon to completely forget that a certain player made the All-Star team, especially if that player struggled following the break.
So, with a large enough post-break sample size of one month in the books, I figured that now was a good time to discuss a group of players who fall under this category.
Masahiro Tanaka
Let’s start with Tanaka, who I drafted this year in Mixed Auction Tout Wars for what seemed like a reasonable price of $15. For awhile, that $15 price tag appeared to be a bargain, as Tanaka headed into his June 29 start versus the Red Sox in England sporting a 3.21 ERA. Two-thirds of an inning and six earned runs later, his season ERA rose by more than half a run. In his six starts since, the Yankees righty has recorded just one quality start.
Oh, and then there was that 12 earned run disaster at Fenway. The reasons behind Tanaka’s tailspin are far from clear, though shaky command of his splitter has certainly played a role. Limiting longballs has always been a challenge for Tanaka, and this year has been no different (1.5 HR/9). He’s also posted the highest hit rate of his career (9.5 H/9). Tanaka owners are in a tough spot right now as all they can do is hope that he turns things around. His trade value is obviously nonexistent at this time.
Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi cannot be trusted. That was my belief back in March, and despite his exceptional first half (10-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.7 K/9), I maintained that belief. I guess I was still scarred from owning him in multiple leagues last year in what was a maddeningly inconsistent 2018 campaign. Well, in five starts since the break, he’s pitched to a 5.19 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP while serving up five home runs, this after allowing just 10 homers across 17 first-half starts. While owners who sold high on Odorizzi last month are relieved, owners who kept him might now be stuck with a back-end of the rotation starter from here on out.
Dan Vogelbach
Aside from the five homers, Vogelbach’s post-break numbers, which include a .192/.272/.452 slash line, leave a lot to be desired. Most alarming is that Vogelbach, whose plate discipline has always been a strength, carries a 25/7 K/BB ratio in the second half after posting an impressive 79/61 K/BB prior to the break. The good news is that his minuscule .209 second-half BABIP is due for significant regression, so expect that batting average to steadily rise. Pitchers have clearly made adjustments to Vogelbach, so it’s up to him to counter with his own adjustments. He’s a talented enough hitter to do just that.
James McCann
Undrafted in the vast majority of mixed leagues, McCann became a popular early-season waiver wire add thanks to his hot start combined with Welington Castillo’s extended ineffectiveness at the plate. Finding a consistently productive catcher on the waiver wire is no easy task these days, a fact that made McCann all the more appealing. He even earned his first All-Star nod, recording a .316/.371/.502 first-half slash line with nine homers.
Things haven’t gone quite as smoothly in the second half, however, as McCann is batting a meager .212 entering play on Saturday. He does have three homers, and he remains the clear-cut starting catcher on the South Side, so he still deserves a roster spot in most mixed leagues. But the 2019 story of James McCann is a reminder that three months shouldn’t be enough of a sample size to convince us that a 29-year-old who was previously a borderline real-life starter had all of a sudden transformed into a valuable fantasy asset.
At this time next year, will we even remember that McCann was a 2019 All-Star?
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
