I rarely draft a pitcher in the first or second round of drafts, because pitchers are more prone than hitters to serious injury and fluctuations in performance. The old cliché holds that hitting a round ball with a round bat is the most difficult job in professional sports, but I would suggest that throwing a round ball close to or above 100 mph, while at other times snapping one’s wrist in such a way as to make that baseball dance through the air at slightly lesser velocities, is at least as hard. And certainly harder on one’s elbow and shoulder.
Last year I won my 12-team mixed league with a starting staff led by Clayton Kershaw, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, and Lance Lynn, drafted in the 3rd, 5th, 10th, and 12th rounds, respectively. Waiver-wire pickups of Zach Plesac, Cristian Javier, Kevin Gausman, and Zach Eflin also helped. There were misses too, like David Price, Luke Weaver, Miles Mikolas, and Chris Archer in rounds 13, 17, 20, and 23, but mistakes in the mid- to late-rounds of the draft won’t kill your team, particularly if you know how to work the waiver wire. My point is that there is plenty of good starting pitching to be found after the first few rounds, where you should be loading up on stud hitters with favorable risk profiles.
This year, I believe there is even more reason to emphasize hitting in the early rounds of drafts. After 2020’s abbreviated season, starting pitchers will be facing a steep increase in innings. Teams will try to decrease the chance of injures with shorter outings, more skipped starts, and extra days off. Many are even using a six-man rotation.
All of these factors will tend to make starting pitchers, on average, less valuable and less projectable this year. So don’t burn your first-or second-round pick on Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Yu Darvish, Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, or Max Scherzer. Those guys are great pitchers, but they are all entering uncharted territory, and it’s a near-certainty that several of them will hit the IL at some point. Better to stock up on hitting early and push your injury risk later in the draft. At least, that’s what I’ll be doing. Draft safely!
