We’ve now reached the two-thirds of the season mark, meaning that each team has about 55 games left to play. At first glance that seems like a lot of time. It isn’t. There are indeed two months remaining, but one of those is September.
As you well know, September is a very different month from any other month in the baseball season. Roster expansion to as many as 40 allows managers to give players more rest. This is especially true for pitchers as a manager can have as many as, or more than, ten arms ready to go at any given time. Teams that have clinched playoff berths will likely give their players additional rest. Teams that have been eliminated may give call ups an extended audition. All of this means that making up time in September is a challenge.
Additionally, and quite obviously, the vast number of games played by each team come September does not favor those trying to move up in the standings. Looking at the percentage categories, and using my NFBC Main Event team as an example, let’s see what an improvement for one starting pitcher will do to my ratio and ERA.
I just cut Felix Hernandez (no, I have no excuse for waiting this long). I replaced him this week with Wade Miley, but for illustration purposes, let’s assume I was able to pick up a player with MLB ERA leader Jacob deGrom’s statistics for the remainder of the year. deGrom presently has an ERA of 1.82 and a WHIP of 0.98. He has thrown 138 innings, so for this illustration, I anticipate that he will throw an additional 69 innings in August and September, combined.
Replacing Felix with deGrom for August and September lowers my ERA by 0.13 and my WHIP by 0.05. Now, no one is going to find deGrom’s projected last third stats (1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP) on the waiver wire, but even if you did, the change in your overall team ratios isn’t significant.
The same is true, to a greater extent, with hitters. Michael Conforto has struggled to a .233 batting average this year. If I were to replace Conforto with Mookie Betts’ projected (based solely on his first 2/3 stats) last third statistics, my team batting average would rise from .262 to .264. Again, finding Betts on the waiver wire just isn’t going to happen.
The counting categories are easier to figure, but just as daunting. Replacing Brandon Belt (12 home runs this year) with J.D. Martinez (32 home runs this year) projects to just a nine home run increase over the rest of the season. Of course, MLB home run leaders aren’t available on your waiver wire.
Clearly, making up room from this point forward is challenging. It’s considerably harder making up room in September, and the changes you make are worth, at best, about half as much as changes you make right now.
Hence, holding off on FAAB until September is a recipe for disaster. Looking at potential players available in FABB, last year, only Dom Smith hit more than five home runs in September. Teoscar Hernandez was the only potentially available player who drove in at least 20 runs in September. Only Nori Aoki scored more than 15 runs. You are wasting your time if you are looking for a hitting savior to pick up in September. The same is true for pitchers. These guys just don’t often come out of the minors and make a fantasy difference in September.
So, what does it all mean? Well, it means that time is going by so much faster than I, or you, might have imagined. It also means that if you have FAAB available, now is certainly the time to use it. Just like an auction, there is no bonus for ending the game with FAAB remaining.
In the NFBC, there are only eight remaining FAAB periods. Certainly, you need some FAAB for each week to cover for injuries, lost jobs, etc. I’m generally comfortable keeping 5 FAAB per week come August. I presently sit in a virtual three-way tie for the league lead, and 65th overall, and 45 FAAB dollars left, pretty much with the exact amount that I’d like to have. The two other teams fighting have 71 and 62 remaining, again right in line with expectations. Not surprisingly, the teams in 12th, 13th and 14th place have the most (652, 433 and 337) FAAB left.
It’s a bit late to start making major FAAB moves. Time and player availability just isn’t there. However, it’s never too late to start preparing for next year. With that in mind, here’s a look at team comprised of players that were picked up in my Main Event league through the waiver process:
- C Francisco Cervelli
- C John Hicks
- 1B Jesus Aguilar
- 2B Gleyber Torres
- 3B Matt Duffy
- SS Eduardo Escobar
- MI Jurickson Profar
- CI Max Muncy
- OF Juan Soto
- OF Nick Markakis
- OF Brandon Nimmo
- OF Ben Zobrist
- OF Teoscar Hernandez
- UT Kevin Kiermaier
- P Ross Stripling
- P Marco Gonzales
- P Zack Wheeler
- P Mike Fiers
- P Nathan Eovaldi
- P Freddy Peralta
- P Bud Norris
- P Hunter Strickland
- P Seranthony Dominguez
- P Luis Castillo
- OF Avisail Garcia
- P Tyler Clippard
- SS Paul DeJong
- UT Kike Hernandez
- IB Mitch Moreland
- P Jaime Barria
There is certainly some value there. You just have to pull the trigger and pay to get it.
Best of luck,
Buster
Follow Buster @BusterH_esq.
