Fantasy Baseball 2020 – Evaluating Prospects Without a 2020 Season
By Michael Richards
In doing my own research over the past few weeks, I have noticed it is relatively difficult to find any new information about prospects, particularly players who are not highly regarded throughout the industry. I think the lack of 2020 performance data is largely to blame. Prospects are more of a future play, so it makes sense that they would get placed on the back burner.
With the announcement there will be no minor league season this year, I would like to discuss some ideas to help identify talent without the help of 2020 stats. With no opportunity for most players, it gives us a chance to look closer at some of the ways to evaluate prospects that are not as obvious as a statistical breakout. I consider all of these when deciding whether a player could be special. It is also helpful in differentiating between highly regarded players that are seemingly similar value.
HIT TOOL
Unless a prospect has a legitimate ability to eventually stand out against world-class pitching, it is going to be difficult for them to become a difference maker in fantasy baseball. As with most tools, it can be improved with good coaching, but I do not like to draft players who have a long way to go developing the tool. On a 20 to 80 scouting scale, I am looking for prospects that grade out with a 50-60 hit tool. I will give some leniency to players who show a gift to steal bases at a high rate but generally avoiding anyone below 50. It is hard enough finding prospects who will become average major leaguers. It is extremely important that they know how to hit.
PLATE DISCIPLINE
Getting on base has always been important but with the introduction of advanced statistics in recent years, it has magnified the value of players who can control the strike zone. There will always be outliers who strike out way too much, have a low walk rate and still manage to have value. I just do not recommend trying to find a franchise player that has those limitations. The ability to make contact, lay off close breaking balls, having a plan at the plate and ultimately getting on base are signs of a good hitter. If you add consistent power to that, you are looking at a four-category monster. Add consistent speed as well, and you have a player with the tools to join Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna and Christian Yelich at the top of draft boards one day.
ATHLETICISM
Most of the best pure athletes in the world have migrated to other sports over the years. But anyone who has seen someone who is coordinated, that runs faster than most people, make the game look easy, while making incredible plays knows the impact it can have on the game. Since front offices around baseball are focusing on teaching players to hit the ball in the air more, home runs will inevitably be up around the league. But players who have legitimate potential to impact the stolen base category are becoming rarer in the era. As mentioned above, the best players in fantasy baseball can affect all five categories on offense.
BASEBALL IQ
While it is nice being able to jump higher and run faster than everyone else, that has never been enough to be a top-level Major League player. You want to look for players who really understand what is going on out there. Coaches praising their maturity and talking about how they see the game at an advanced level. The game is hard enough as it is, you want to be identifying players who make smart plays, take well to coaching and can think about the game more deeply than the average player.
LOVE FOR THE GAME
There are plenty of extremely talented players who never had to work hard. They have distractions which limit them from reaching their full potential. Eventually even the most talented players are exposed if they did not make the necessary adjustments as they move up levels. Players who genuinely love baseball and are desperate to improve show the competitiveness, desire and ability to work through obstacles that you want in prospects. When the rare combination of talent, work ethic, humbleness and love for the game come together, you want that player.
AGE VS. LEVEL
When comparing different prospects, you should be looking at their age combined with the level they play in the minors. A 23-year old coming off a big season in Triple-A needs to be looked at differently than a 19-year old who held is own in Double-A. In most cases I am betting that 23-year old could not have survived in Double-A at age 19. This is one of the ways you can use to judge who has the higher upside.
PEDIGREE
Before most of us hear about any prospect, they have been scouted extensively by people who are paid well to judge talent. So when someone is taken in the first round of the draft, has Hall-of-Fame bloodlines, or shows all the other necessary tools to reach a premium level, I’m willing to give them more lead way to develop. As oppose to an undersized guy who emerges seemingly out of nowhere with big stats. Most prospects, even the elite ones take time to adjust to Major League pitching. If they have some blue-chip qualities about them, they seem to figure it out eventually.
SIZE MATTERS
Life is not fair, and some people are blessed with genes to become a professional athlete. Baseball does not have too many giants now, but there is a difference between 5-feet-9 and 6-feet-3. I like to look at a lot of the best players in the league, get a sense of their height and weight, and use that information to target players with similar builds and skill sets. I will end up missing out on the occasional Dustin Pedroia, but I still feel it keeps me firmly in the game on most superstar caliber upside.
TOOLS OVER POSITION
I try not to put too much thought into prospects positions while in the minor leagues, but it is a factor to consider. An amazing shortstop or third basemen is always nice to have, but it is also important not to overrate them just because they play the infield at the time you draft them. The goal is ultimately to uncover future superstars to help you build a dynasty. The cream of the crop in fantasy baseball right now all play in the outfield so don’t disregard the position.
ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
When you play fantasy baseball long enough you eventually see patterns with certain Major League organizations. A team like Tampa Bay seems to get the most out of their pitchers, so I will give them the benefit of doubt. A team like Baltimore does not even seem capable of developing even premium talent, which would explain why I will not rank Adley Rutschman as high as most. If I can pick up any patterns about how organizations operate it will help my decision making when deciding which prospect to gamble on.
