We are a few weeks into the season, so I’d like to offer my take on a few things I’ve noticed early in the season.
Strike 1
We’ve seen a few instances of managers being extra cautious about pitch counts already. Tyler Mahle of the Reds is a player who comes to mind, who has had 3 stellar games, but has been limited to five innings at the most. Across the board we are seeing fewer and fewer pitchers going deep into games. This is more concerning for players who participate in leagues where Quality Starts are valued as opposed to wins, however, this could mean we see more relief pitcher wins this season too.
Obviously, part of the limitations being put on pitchers is because of the shortened season last year. The issue that fantasy baseball managers have to consider and keep track of is to figure out if this is simply an early season or yearlong trend. And if this does go on for the rest of the season, how do fantasy managers strategize for the decline in Quality Starts and Wins?
First, for those wondering if there is actually a decline in Quality starts, there absolutely is. The decline has been an ongoing trend since 2014. In 2014, 54% of games started resulted in a Quality Start. For the next 5 years, the percentages of Quality Starts dropped off by 3% each year, down to 37% in 2019. This is a product of pitchers being pulled from games early because of managers being conservative with pitch counts and trying to avoid overworking their pitchers.
What has been happening in the last two years is that we are seeing “Tandem Starters,” “Bullpen Games,” and “Openers” as alternatives to throwing starters out there for seven-plus innings. Teams like the Rays have become pioneers at these strategies. Texas is likely to employ these strategies this year. Seattle is going with a six-man rotation to conserve their pitchers’ innings. And on top of that, teams are building up their bullpens.
As far as fantasy baseball, this makes streaming pitchers more important. Finding value on the waiver wire, looking for starting pitchers, who are going deep in games, and who have good matchups will be extremely valuable in leagues that either value Quality Starts or Wins. In leagues that value wins, it will also be important to find middle relievers who are picking up multiple innings for their major league counterparts, because those players will end up winning games. Players like Junior Guerra from the Angels, Ryan Weathers from San Diego, and Atlanta reliever Sean Newcomb are all providing value from middle relief.
Of course, some pitchers are going to be impervious to innings limits – workhorses like Lance Lynn and Max Scherzer are not going to get pulled early, but these are the types of players who are most likely rostered in many leagues because of the value they bring.
Strike 2
I’m a member of various fantasy baseball groups on social media, and the amount of people I’ve seen offering, considering, and/or accepting absurd trades is astounding. I want to cover trade etiquette for “Strike 2.”
Trading in fantasy baseball is one of my favorite parts of the game. It makes me feel like a real MLB front office executive, but what trading is best for is targeting the players you like who are too good to be out there on the waiver wire. Sometimes your only access to the roster you want is to trade.
My first piece of advice on trading is to have a discussion first before sending out an offer, because random offers are unlikely to be accepted. Instead, communicate with the other managers in the league. Reach out and ask if a player is available. Tell them which players you are interested in, and tell them who is available on your team to trade. This is important because if you do this, you have an avenue open to find deals that you maybe thought were not possible.
To add onto that a little bit, even if you are unable to secure a trade, at least you have had a productive discussion, and the other manager knows who you like and who is available, and vice versa. This leaves the door open for a future deal. It is so important to communicate first before trading.
Talking first also limits the chance of sending out a ridiculous trade offer and insulting other managers. Sure, send out Starling Marte for Mike Trout and see what happens. When people send out ridiculous offers, it can offend other managers by making them think you think they do not know what they are doing. Those situations happen a lot, and can alienate managers from the rest of the league, and then nobody will trade with them. You do not want that to happen to you, so TALK FIRST.
If you are not sure how to start a discussion with your fellow managers, try saying these to get the conversation going: “What will it take to get so-and-so from your team?” “Who do I have that you want?” “These 3 players are available. Any interest?” These will get the conversation going, will give you a good barometer on what your fellow managers want and don’t want, and will lead to a productive discussion at a minimum.
Strike 3
I am not done with talking about trading! Trading etiquette is one thing, but trading strategy is another.
Another tip for trading in fantasy baseball is to pay attention to surplus and deficit. You can take this a couple of different ways. Look for teams that have a surplus at a position that you need – maybe they have four solid first baseman and you need an upgrade. Figure out where that team is lacking and offer a trade accordingly. Additionally, maybe you have a deficit at Strikeouts in pitching, so you need to target a high strikeout pitcher from another team. Send an offer to that team, where you give them something that they need that is a surplus from your team. Pay attention to this throughout the year, because things change and different teams move up and down the standings. By noticing your own and other managers’ surpluses and deficits, you can easily find avenues for trading.
Another trading tip is that you may have to sacrifice to get what you want. Be open to trading anyone to get what you need. Be open to trading a player like Cody Bellinger if you get the right deal. If you are making a push for first place, but you really need Strikeouts and steals to do it, and someone offers you a deal that gets you what you need, at least consider it. Never just shut down a deal before one is offered simply based on who your player is. In addition to that, do not take forever to respond to trades. It can be annoying when you have had a discussion and you send an offer, and you think it is going to get done, or maybe you need a player involved in the deal to win your matchup, but your trade partner does not accept the deal for five days. That can be seen as disrespectful, so whether you are going to take a deal, at least respond quickly, if not for your benefit, then for the benefit of the person who offered the deal.
My philosophy with trading is that it is a fun way for you to improve your team and someone else’s team, where you can access the best players in baseball that would never show up on the waiver wire. When I trade, I try to follow my own advice, although I am guilty of doing some things I say not to do. I try my best to communicate without being oppressive, I try my best to find deals that make sense for both parties, and I try my best to be open to discussion about every player. In past years I’ve traded Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and other big name players who most may not trade, but only because it was the right situation. Keep your options open!
