Nothing says fantasy sports quite like overreacting to an absurdly small sample size. Hockey is no different. That said, you can certainly gain an edge early in the season by either recognizing an early trend, or by taking advantage of sell high/buy low opportunities.
We’ve seen quite a few teams and players exceed expectations early on. While some will certainly fade as the season progresses, I believe that some teams may be showing hints of their true potential. One team that I have in the latter, at least from an offensive prospective, are the Detroit Red Wings. This is a young team that may ultimately not wing a lot of games, but there is some legitimate scoring talent here, and that means fantasy value. Their top line of Tyler Bertuzzi-Dylan Larkin-Lucas Reymond combined for five goals (four by Bertuzzi) in their season opener against defending-champion Tampa Bay. While this is definitely not the type of production to expect on a nightly basis, I don’t believe it’s entirely a fluke either. These are three legitimate point producers. The fourth overall pick in 2020, the 19-year-old Raymond could potentially be the difference maker, as he’s shown incredibly advanced playmaking ability for his age (1 goal, 2 assists in 3 games). We’ve seen Larkin top 70 points in a season, before dropping off the past two years as the talent around him declined. With other producers around him again, this is a player thats a good bet to put himself back into the elite fantasy player conversation (1 goal, 2 assists in 2 games). Meanwhile, any window to buy low on the post-hype Bertuzzi has slammed shut, as he’s already put up five goals (thanks to a season-opening hat trick) and an assist.
On the defensive end, Detroit has another rookie in Moritz Seider (6th overall in 2019). Seider has the size (6’4”, 207lbs) and strength to garner significant ice time Additionally, he’s demonstrated the skill to chip in solid point production, especially if he continues to log power-play minutes. Seider has three assists through two games to start the year. In dynasty/keeper leagues, Seider and Raymond are two players I’m incredibly high on. As with any young player, there’s still significant risk on this Red Wings team, and I’d expect some growing paints over the course of a season. That said, even in re-draft formats, I’d be watching this team very closely as their potential is higher than many realize.
The Philadelphia Flyers are another team that has surprised many with their early offensive output, particularly the play of 21-year-old Joel Farabee. He has six points through the Flyer’s first three games (a goal and assist in each game), playing on the second line with veteran newcomers in Derek Brassard and Cam Atkinson. Though Farabee, a 2018 first-round pick, looked NHL-ready in his first two seasons, he seems primed to make a jump to the next level of fantasy production in 2021. I was admittedly skeptical when the Flyers brought in Atkinson and Brassard as two aging forwards, years removed from their highest-scoring seasons. However, they’ve shown that they can still be smart, technical hockey players, who can capitalize on the speed and skill of a player like Farabee, who’s demonstrated impressive hockey sense in his own right. While it’s improbable that this line will keep producing at their current pace all season, chemistry between line mates is something that is both tremendously important and often overlooked. Farabee’s fast start is no fluke, and I’ll be keeping an eye on Brassard/Atkinson, who may still be free agents in many leagues.
Now to the other end of the spectrum – teams and players that have disappointed early in the season. We have to start the list with the Montreal Canadiens, last years surprise Stanley Cup runner-up. To say Montreal has started slow would be a tremendous understatement. They’re currently 0-5, scoring only four goals, while allowing 19. If I were invested in Montreal’s success this season, I’d certainly be panicking, even with the small sample size. During their unexpected run last season, Montreal depended on equally-unexpected production from players like Tyler Toffoli and Jeff Petry. While both are solid players, expecting them to anchor a teams offense is not sustainable. Toffoli is now seven seasons removed from a 31 goal season with the Los Angeles Kings, tough put up a staggering 28 goals last year, in only 52 games. While it seemed like there was the possibility that Toffoli had found a career resurgence, regression towards a player with a 20 goal/35 point ceiling seems much more likely. He put up an incredible 17.7% shot percentage last season, nearly seven points higher than his 11% career average. This would indicate that there was some luck involved in Toffoli’s breakout. Petry, meanwhile, has been a solid offensive producer for Montreal over several seasons now. However, he seems likely to match his 42 point production in his age-33 season (he has no points through five games this season). While Petry’s offensive production has actually shown improvement later in his career, his 2.0 pts/game last season marked a major increase from his career high of 1.4. Like Toffoli, I’d expect to see some regression here, as it’s rare to see defenseman continue to produce at high offensive levels into their mid-30’s (see Brett Burns). Simply put, if the Canadiens want to make another run this year, they’ll need to find production in other places.
Another winless team that has many panicking are the Chicago Blackhawks. Coming into the year, Chicago focused on strengthening the defense end, to pair with a young, high-octane offense. However, through their first five games, Chicago has yet to win, with a 9-21 goal differential. While it may seem like Chicago’s offseason plans have backfired, I wouldn’t be writing off the Blackhawks yet. Offensively, the talent is evident. Alex Debrincat and Dominik Kubalik, two elite young wingers, have already shown they can excel in the NHL, while Kirby Dach, the third overall pick in 2019, may not be far behind. If Patrick Kane can keep scoring like he has throughout his career (and there’s little reason to think he won’t), and if Jonathan Toews can stay healthy while providing stability at center, this could still be one of the leagues best scoring teams. And while the defensive struggles have been concerning, there’s enough talent in this unit (Seth Jones, Calvin De Haan, Jake McCabe, and Connor Murphy) to expect them to preform better as chemistry continues to develop.
Perhaps the biggest acquisition the Blackhawks made in the offseason was bringing in future Hall-of-Fame goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury. Though 36-years-old, Fleury was still an elite option last season with Vegas, posting a .928 save percentage and allowing only 1.98 goals per game. This season, however, has been a completely different story. In three starts, Fleury has let up a staggering 5.63 goals per game for Chicago. While it wouldn’t be shocking to see Fleury decline at this point in his career, I wouldn’t expect this current performance to become the norm. He likely won’t return to the pace he was on with Vegas, playing behind an elite defense, but as Chicago’s backend continues to play more together, I’d expect Fleury to remain a viable fantasy option as he gets more comfortable with a new team.
On the other end, we’ve seen some elite performances from a handful of young goalies. Igor Shesterkin has been outstanding for the Rangers, allowing only six goals on 128 shots. As Sheshterkin seems to be realizing the potential he showed as a prospect in the KHL, I’d only expect his fantasy value to go up through the season. The Rangers still have a young defensive core, that has struggled at times early this year, and I’d expect them to improve over the course of a season, meaning Shesterkin won’t have to put up an insane .953 save percentage to find success. Other young goalies on teams that I’d expect to improve include Thatcher Demko (Vancouver), Juuse Saros (Nashville), and Carter Hart (Philadelphia).
