Early Draft Season: Fade or Follow

Brad Keller, KC, P, ADP 264

Brad Keller was simply outstanding in a short stint last year posting a 2.47 ERA. Keller possesses maybe the best slider in the game, having never been barreled up once in 2020 despite throwing it a whopping 328 times! He seems to have figured out a pitch arsenal that works for him, having increased the slider usage by more than 5% each of the last two years. Keller is your prototypical pitch-to-contact starter. He will not give you the large strike out numbers you are probably looking for. Being on a horrible team suppresses his win opportunity, as well. Keller did, however, average 6.1 innings per start last year, which was 14th among all pitchers. If you are in a league that replaced wins with Quality Starts or Innings, Keller gets a huge jump up and will help control your ratios. Follow, being drafted as an SP7, a perfect streamer for deep head-to-head leagues.

Madison Bumgarner, AZ, P, ADP 340

I know how ugly 2020 was, and I cannot stop looking at the 6.48 ERA either but hear me out. Prior to 2020, Bumgarner had only had one season with an ERA over 3.50. In a season which he changed teams, with an interrupted spring training, where he had to go on the IL with a back injury, and only pitched 42 innings, we as a fantasy community, who just two years ago drafted him as a top ten starter, have accepted this terrible short sample, labeled it as the new norm, and have taken this four-time All-Star and three-time World Series Champion and relegated him to a fantasy bench role. Sign me up for that, especially since his nemesis Kiki Hernandez has moved on to the American League. If you take out the two blow up starts before he went on the IL, he was otherwise in line with his career averages. He encouragingly ended the season with ten scoreless innings.

Bumgarner is going undrafted in many shallow formats. He is still only 31 years old, despite the perception that he is old and washed. He may be, but if I can stash him on a bench and watch for a while, I’m willing to bet we will get a sub 4.00 ERA behind a quality chunk of innings and an 8 K/9 rate.  The lack of universal DH should figure to benefit him greatly. If am wrong and he turns back into Mason Saunders, we just cut him and move on. Follow, his first spring outing was perfect, two innings, six strikeouts.  There is SP2-3 upside, but the cost is free.

Adalberto Mondesi, KC, SS ADP 21

Mondesi has never been healthy for a full season and brings the second highest swinging strike rate in the majors to the plate.  His career high in plate appearances is 447, yet every projection model you can find projects him for 550-600 PA and 50 plus stolen bases, two achievements he has never met.  In spite of his .284 career OBP, Mondesi is the MLB all time leader in stolen base attempts per trip to first base, trying 60.5% of the time.  The greatest base stealers of all time never even sniffed this level.   Vince Coleman’s career was 48.8% and Rickey Henderson was at 39.3% Assuming some regression as he moves down in the order to seventh, with newly acquired Andrew Benintendi manning the two hole, he figures to disappoint every projection model.  With a 20% increase and PA and 0.20% improvement in OB%, two very unlikely scenarios, Mondesi would project to reach base 163 times in 2021, which loosely would equate to about 100 trips to first base.  If he regressed only to the rate of the greatest base stealer of all time, this would result in about 40 steals.  It is quite simple.  The ADP and the average drain do not justify the steals.  Fade, best use is in points leagues that do not penalize for strikeouts.

Adam Eaton, CWS, OF ADP 329

Eaton returns to the team where he excelled from 2014-16, and very well could be perched toward the top of this elite lineup. Eaton comes with a .282 career AVG and .343 wOBA. After the 20th round, you are generally drafting hitters who will drain your average, but not here. Considering the double-digit floor in SB and HR, I cannot think of a better target on roto teams requiring five outfielders. If he finds his way to 500+ at bats in front of possibly the best lineup in the American League, he will shatter every projection model and see his way to 100 runs scored. DFS players, file this name away. He will be cash game value gold all year long. Follow, I’m drafting as my OF5 everywhere to help with my AVG and runs.

Franchy Cordero, BOS, OF ADP 365

He has never been healthy, and therefore never had a regular role, so it’s very hard to make a large investment in Franchy. Seemingly around forever, but only 26 years old, Franchy appears poised to grab semi-regular at bats as the left-handed threat in the middle/back of the Red Sox lineup. When looking at the analytics of his 284 career at bats over four seasons, there may just be an All-Star buried in there. His average exit velocity is a full 4.2 mph above league average, hard hit percentage is superior by 9.8% and barrel rate is double the league average at 12.4% There is a little Pedro Cerrano in him when it comes to breaking pitches, as he is below average when chasing pitches out of the zone and has a tendency to swing at the first pitch.

At 6’3″ 225 lbs, Cordero has surprising speed to add to the raw power.  With the investment the Red Sox made to acquire him, 500 AB could be in the cards.  We may have a league winner here, with a 30 HR, 20 SB ceiling not being impossible. Follow.  He is being drafted in bench rounds of 15 team leagues so we can stash and watch.

Keston Hiura, MLW, 2B ADP 64

2020 hit us all hard, but it hit Hiura like a ton of bricks. The swing and miss got worse; his 85 strikeouts brought up the rear in the National League. The BABIP dropped to .273, yielding a .212 AVG. He only provided nine homeruns and stole a mere three bases. To make matters worse, Hiura showed incapable of handling second base, with a terrible -2 Outs Above Average. He was relegated to DH 10 times in a 60 game season, and the Brewers this offseason were forced to take action.

Despite all of this, Hiura is being drafted as the fifth 2B overall, with an ADP of 64. Despite being an enormous draft bust in 2020, his terrible results have only dropped him one round of ADP, a round before Jeff McNeil and nearly three rounds before Jose Altuve, both of whom will better Hiura by at least 50 points of batting average. However, the Brewers DID take notice, and went out and signed defensive wizard Kolten Wong to play second base, leaving Hiura to slide to first base in hopes of hiding his defensive issues.

Using Steamer projections for 2021, Hiura’s rank among first basemen projected for more than 100 games played would be 18th in average at .252 (generous), 10th in HR with 29 (generous), 3rd in SB with 11, 16th in runs with 77, and 12th in RBI with 85., but nothing about this shows me a 1B #1, and the position will add Andrew Vaughn and Triston Casas to its inventory next year. There is simply no justification for drafting Keston Hiura inside of the top 100. Fade, Brandon Lowe and Ketel Marte will both outperform him in the same round, and also offer multi position eligibility.